Weather online outlook for September

"Valid from 03/12 to 30/12 2015

Mixed overall

Issued: Monday 29th August 2016
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling

Mixed overall but some dry spells too, especially in the east

September is going to be a mixed month. There will be spells of drier weather, but some wetter conditions too. We expect most of the rain fall during the month to be to the west of the UK and Ireland, with more eastern areas tending to see rainfall totals lower than average. Temperatures remaining warm, although nearer average in the west.

*3/9/16 - 9/9/16*
September opens with mainly fair weather across much of the UK and Ireland. As the week progresses rain arrives in Scotland and gradually drifts south. Probably becoming more mixed or unsettled for all but the far southeast by the end of the week. Temperatures starting mild then slipping later.

*10/9/16 - 16/9/16*
Hints of the weather remaining mixed to unsettled through the week. Most rain tending to be in western areas, but drier overall in the east and southeast. Warm in the east and south too, but nearer average west.

*17/9/16 - 23/9/16*
The jet stream is likely to be breaking through during this week bringing more unsettled weather to all. Once again most of the rain will be to the west, with more eastern areas tending to see lighter rain. Mild for all.

*24/9/16 - 30/9/16*
Staying unsettled, especially in the west where there will be more rain. Eastern areas may become a little drier, and the dry weather may well affect southern areas too.

**ends**

Simon Keeling"

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=monthahead&DAY=20160829

Weather online outlook for October and November

" Higher pressure

Dry spells

Issued: Monday 29th August 2016
Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

*October*

Forecasting models are consistently showing October as being dominated by high pressure. However, we believe that this is overstated. Our current expectations are that the early part of October may well be dominated by higher pressure and drier conditions. This could bring some fine, warm weather, although cooler nights. By mid-month conditions will begin to change and there will be a slip to a more unsettled second half of the month. It will become cooler, wetter and windy at times.

*November*

Once again, higher than average pressure is the theme for November, although this time tending to mostly affect the south of the UK and Ireland.
After an unsettled, often wet and windy start to the month, things will likely settle down with higher pressure bringing some drier days. Cooler nights are likely, as is frost. A tendency for days to become foggier as the month progresses. Turning more unsettled again by the month's end.

Simon Keeling"

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=206&FILE=sea&DAY=20160829 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Saturday 3 Sep 2016 to Monday 12 Sep 2016:

This period is rather uncertain with influence on the weather pattern over the UK from tropical storms currently in the Atlantic. While these storms are unlikely to directly affect the UK some of the warm and moist air associated with them may develop into an area of low pressure and bring unsettled conditions, at times, over the weekend. These most likely in the north and west. Thereafter it is most likely to become changeable, with showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed with drier, brighter conditions. Wettest, windiest weather is likely across the northwest with driest, sunniest conditions in the southeast, though here there is a low risk of thunder at times. Temperatures will generally be near or a little above normal, with warmer spells in the east at times.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 13 Sep 2016 to Tuesday 27 Sep 2016:

Confidence remains low in the forecast for this period, however the most likely scenario is for the changeable weather to continue at first. This will bring showers or outbreaks of rain to some, these interspersed with drier and brighter interludes. The heaviest rain and stronger winds are likely in the northwest, with the drier conditions and lighter winds in the southeast. A trend towards more widespread drier, settled conditions looks possible for the second half of September. Temperatures are likely to be above normal.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

This is interesting:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/uk-forecast-september-cool-air-stormy/59774384 

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Sunday 4 Sep 2016 to Tuesday 13 Sep 2016:

Unsettled on Sunday, with showers or longer spells of rain, but also drier, brighter spells. It'll remain unsettled into the start of the week across northern parts, with showers or rain and stronger winds, whereas it should become largely drier in the south. Perhaps a longer, dry, settled spell developing more widely next week. Otherwise, this changeable weather is more likely to continue with showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed with drier and brighter conditions. The wettest and windiest weather is likely across the northwest and the driest and sunniest conditions in the south, though even here there is a low risk of thunder at times. Temperatures should be near or above normal, with warm spells in the south and east and rather cool in the northwest at times.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 14 Sep 2016 to Wednesday 28 Sep 2016:

Confidence remains low in the forecast for this period, however, the most probable scenario is for the changeable weather to continue at first. This will bring showers or outbreaks of rain to some, these interspersed with drier and brighter interludes. The heaviest rain and stronger winds are likely in the northwest, with the drier conditions and lighter winds in the southeast. A trend towards more widespread drier, settled conditions looks possible for the second half of September. Temperatures are likely to average out above normal.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

more BALONEY from the EXPRESS http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/705026/Britain-30-day-heatwave-September-weather-forecast-scorcher-African-air 

I DONT KNOW WEATHER TO LAUGH OR CRY

Oh good, the Express is always right.

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Monday 5 Sep 2016 to Wednesday 14 Sep 2016:

An unsettled start to the week across most parts, with outbreaks of rain at times, heaviest in the northwest where gales are possible. Towards the middle of the week southern parts will probably see a more settled spell develop, with plenty of dry, fine and warm weather. There is a reasonable chance that this fine weather will spread to all parts later in the week. Thereafter a northwest/southeast split is expected. Northwestern parts will likely see showers or outbreaks of rain interspersed by dry and bright interludes, whilst the southeast will be predominately dry and fine, with only brief wetter spells. Temperatures should be near or a little above normal in the northwest, but in the southeast they will be generally above normal, with some very warm spells possible.

UK Outlook for Thursday 15 Sep 2016 to Thursday 29 Sep 2016:

Confidence remains low in the forecast for this period, however the most probable scenario is for the northwest/southeast split to continue at first. This will bring showers or outbreaks of rain to northwestern parts, interspersed by drier and brighter interludes, whilst the southeast continues to see mainly dry and fine conditions. A trend towards more widespread drier, settled conditions looks possible for the second half of September, with perhaps eastern and northeastern parts seeing the best of this. Temperatures are likely to average out above normal, with some warm spells likely across all parts at times, but especially in the south.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

The above combined with the current model output brings good cause for optimism that summer will continue to the end of September.

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Tuesday 6 Sep 2016 to Thursday 15 Sep 2016:

Southern parts will probably see a more settled spell develop early in this period, with plenty of dry, fine and warm or very warm weather. Northern parts are likely to be unsettled with outbreaks of rain at first, but there is a reasonable chance that the fine weather in the south will extent here as the week progresses. That said, the far northwest may hold onto unsettled conditions throughout and there is also a low risk of thundery showers affecting southern parts. Thereafter the northwest will probably become fairly unsettled, with rain or showers interspersed by brief drier interludes. Southeastern parts may become changeable, with rain or showers at times, but also some fine, settled weather. Temperatures are likely to be above average overall, particularly in the south.

UK Outlook for Friday 16 Sep 2016 to Friday 30 Sep 2016:

Confidence remains low in the forecast for this period, however, the most probable scenario is for a continuation of the unsettled weather in the northwest and changeable conditions in the southeast. This will bring showers or outbreaks of rain to northwestern parts, interspersed by brief drier and brighter interludes, whilst the southeast continues to see a mixture of rain or showers and fine, settled weather. There is a small chance that a more generally drier, settled spell could develop in the latter part of September, but confidence in this is very low. Temperatures are likely to average out above normal generally, with some warm spells likely across at least the south.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Sep 2016 to Friday 16 Sep 2016:

Most areas will see a spell of settled weather at the start of this period with plenty of warm sunshine. The fine weather should last until the weekend across southeastern parts, however rain and strengthening winds are likely to spread across northwestern areas through Thursday and Friday. Rain across northwestern areas may then extend to all parts for a time over the weekend. Thereafter a northwest-southeast split in the weather looks most probable. The northwest will see the most unsettled weather with fairly frequent spells of rain, some strong winds, and only brief drier interludes. Further southeast it should stay mainly dry, although even here some rain is likely at times. Temperatures generally above average, especially in the southeast, but perhaps nearer average in the northwest after the warm start.

UK Outlook for Saturday 17 Sep 2016 to Saturday 1 Oct 2016:

Confidence remains low in the forecast for this period, however the most probable scenario is for a continuation of the unsettled weather in the northwest and changeable conditions in the southeast. This will bring bouts of wet and windy weather to northwestern parts, interspersed by brief drier and brighter interludes, whilst the southeast continues to see mainly dry weather with only infrequent spells rain or showers. There is a small chance that a more generally drier, settled spell could develop in the latter part of September, but confidence in this is low. Temperatures are likely to average out above normal, particularly in the south, with any colder spells probably short-lived.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Sep 2016 to Saturday 17 Sep 2016:

Most areas will see a spell of settled weather at the start of this period with plenty of warm sunshine. The fine weather should last until the weekend across southeastern parts, however rain and strengthening winds are likely to spread across northwestern areas through Thursday and Friday. From the weekend a northwest-southeast split in the weather looks most probable. The northwest will see the most unsettled weather with fairly frequent spells of rain, some strong winds, and only brief drier interludes. Further southeast it should stay mainly dry, although even here some rain is possible from any thundery outbreaks spreading north from the nearby continent. Temperatures generally above average, especially in the southeast, but perhaps nearer average in the northwest after the warm start.

UK Outlook for Sunday 18 Sep 2016 to Sunday 2 Oct 2016:

Confidence remains low in the forecast for this period, however the most probable scenario is for a continuation of the unsettled weather in the northwest and changeable conditions in the southeast. This will bring spells of wet and windy weather to northwestern parts, interspersed by brief drier and brighter interludes, whilst the southeast continues to see mainly dry weather with only infrequent spells rain or showers. There is a small chance that a more generally drier, settled spell could develop in the latter part of September, but confidence in this is low. Temperatures are likely to average out above normal, particularly in the south, with any cooler spells probably short-lived.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Friday 9 Sep 2016 to Sunday 18 Sep 2016:

More changeable conditions will probably have become established across the UK by Friday. It is likely to be unsettled and rather windy in the northwest, with outbreaks of rain here turning heavy at times, whilst further southeast conditions should be generally drier with some brighter interludes. During the weekend and through the remainder of the period, a northwest-southeast split to the weather looks most probable with northwestern parts seeing fairly frequent spells of rain along with stronger winds and only brief drier interludes. Further southeast it should remain largely dry with lighter winds and sunny spells, though there is a risk of thundery conditions extending in from the continent. Temperatures generally above average, though feeling particularly warm in the southeast.

UK Outlook for Monday 19 Sep 2016 to Monday 3 Oct 2016:

A continuation of the unsettled weather in the northwest and changeable conditions in the southeast is the most likely scenario at first. This will bring spells of wet and windy weather to northwestern parts, interspersed by brief drier and brighter interludes, whilst the southeast continues to see mainly dry weather with only infrequent spells rain or showers. Through the latter part of September more settled conditions may begin to dominate giving drier conditions for most, though confidence in this is currently moderate. Temperatures are likely to average out above normal, particularly in the south, with any cooler spells probably short-lived.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Not going to be like the song 'That September In The Rain'   ......

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Saturday 10 Sep 2016 to Monday 19 Sep 2016:

A band of rain, which could be heavy at times, is expected to move eastwards across the country over the weekend. It is also likely to become windy across the north, with a risk of gales. Changeable weather is then expected through the rest of the period with showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed by some dry and bright periods. The rain and showers being heaviest and most persistent in the north and west, where it is also likely to be windy at times with a risk of gales. The south and east should see the best of the drier and brighter weather, but these conditions could spread northwards at times. Temperatures through the period should be generally above average, perhaps warm at times in the southeast.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 20 Sep 2016 to Tuesday 4 Oct 2016:

The most likely scenario through this period is for mainly westerly to southwesterly winds to dominate. This would bring showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed with some dry and bright periods. The rain and showers are likely to be heaviest and most persistent in the north and west, where it could also be windy at times with a risk of gales. The best of the drier and brighter weather is expected to occur in the south and east, although these conditions could spread north at times. Temperatures through this period should be generally above average, with the chance of some warm or very warm spells in the southeast. Any cool spells are expected to be short lived.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

BBC monthly outlook

Monday 5 September—Sunday 11 September
Summer warmth to return - for a while

The first Monday in September will see mostly cloudy skies across the country, although eastern counties will be mostly dry and may start bright. Occasional rain further west will turn light and patchy, with a lot of hill fog developing in the west. On Tuesday, much of Scotland will have sunny spells but other areas will start cloudy and misty. It will brighten up in places, and it will feel warm and humid where this happens. The warming trend continues on Wednesday and Thursday, with increasing amounts of sunshine. Temperatures may reach 28 Celsius in the east. Scotland and Northern Ireland retain the risk of some showers. Late in the week, stronger winds from the Atlantic will bring a drop in temperatures and also bands of rain or showers which will chiefly affect the northwest.

Monday 12 September—Sunday 18 September
Often dry and warm in the southeast

Heading towards mid-month, the week's weather pattern is expected to feature high pressure close to southeast England or over the near continent. This will bring a lot of fine weather to much of England and Wales, with daytime temperatures on the warm side. Scotland and Northern Ireland will be under a run of sometimes strong south-westerly winds from the Atlantic: these northwestern parts will also have some fine periods but also some showers and perhaps one or two longer outbreaks of rain. These will weaken as they head south-eastwards into England and Wales, bringing only brief interruptions to the dry weather.

Monday 19 September—Sunday 2 October
Settled weather expected to dominate

For late September, current indications are for northwestern parts to continue rather unsettled for a while, with occasional bands of wet and windy weather. Meanwhile, all southern and eastern areas will have lengthy periods of dry weather, with above average temperatures, and only short periods of cloud and the threat of rain. Late in the month, some more settled spells may also affect northern parts. As always, the forecast for this far ahead is never certain, and as the northern latitudes begin to cool down more quickly at this time of year there is always the chance of sudden changes in the weather pattern.

Next week

Next week's outlook will take a fresh look at how early autumn is shaping up. Will the benign southwesterly winds continue? Or can we expect the first autumnal gales?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Sunday 11 Sep 2016 to Tuesday 20 Sep 2016:

Mostly dry with some good sunny spells across the southeastern half of the UK during Sunday and Monday. Further northwest it will start fine on Sunday, but strengthening winds and outbreaks of rain will spread eastwards later. Risk of gales or severe gales for a time. Rain then clearing during Monday. Changeable weather is then expected through the rest of the period with showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed by some dry and bright periods. The rain and showers being heaviest and most persistent in the north and west, where it is also likely to be windy at times with a risk of gales. The south and east should see the best of the drier and brighter weather. Temperatures generally above average, perhaps warm at times in the southeast.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 21 Sep 2016 to Wednesday 5 Oct 2016:

The most likely scenario through this period is for mainly westerly to southwesterly winds to dominate. This would bring showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed with some dry and bright periods. The rain and showers are likely to be heaviest and most persistent in the north and west, where it could also be windy at times with a risk of gales. The best of the drier and brighter weather is expected to occur in the south and east. Temperatures through this period should be generally above average, with the chance of some warm or very warm spells in the southeast. Any cool spells are expected to be short lived.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Monday 12 Sep 2016 to Wednesday 21 Sep 2016:

On Monday we are expecting a band of locally heavy rain to affect most of Scotland and Northern Ireland. The rain will probably move slowly southeastwards across England and Wales later in the day and overnight, with clearer conditions and scattered showers then following from the northwest. Thereafter generally changeable weather is considered most likely, with showers or longer spells of rain at times, interspersed with dry and bright periods. The rain and showers should be heaviest and most pronounced in the north and west, where it is also likely to be occasionally windy with a risk of gales. The southeast, although tending to have the best of the weather, may also have a few thunderstorms at times. Temperatures generally above average, but perhaps warm at times in the southeast.

UK Outlook for Thursday 22 Sep 2016 to Thursday 6 Oct 2016:

The most likely scenario during late September and the first week of October is for mostly unsettled conditions to prevail across all parts, although again northern and western areas are more likely to have the wettest and windiest weather. We can expect showers or longer spells of rain in all areas, but interspersed with some dry and bright intervals, the best of which are likely to be found in the south and east. The temperature through this period should average out at around normal in the north and west, although it may become warm at times in the south and east. The wind will occasionally be strong, with gales likely at times, especially in the north and west.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

this flies in the face of the ECM and TWO forecast for next week in the south east!

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?PLZ=WC2R&PLZN=London&LANG=en&CEL=C&SI=mph&CONT=ukuk&LAND=SOU®ION=0003&WMO=03772&LEVEL=52&R=0&NOREGION=0 

Why? Because they seem to change twice daily, they often contradict what the (usually GFS based) other weather apps and websites show, they run for 240 hours, and certainly next week in London seems to reflect the ECM forecast rather than GFS.

This would be unusual because they'd have to pay a lot for it. Does anyone know if they do indeed use ECM?

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Tuesday 13 Sep 2016 to Thursday 22 Sep 2016:

The latest indications for Tuesday and Wednesday are that there will be a slow-moving band of rain lying across the United Kingdom. The exact location of this band is currently uncertain, but there is a fair chance that the far northwest and far southeast will be dry with some sunshine. Then as we head towards the weekend a gradual breakdown is likely, with outbreaks of rain and strengthening winds arriving from the west. During the second week unsettled conditions are expected to continue, with showers or longer spells of rain at times, especially in the north and northwest. However there will also be some drier, brighter periods, particularly in the south and southeast. Temperatures, perhaps very warm at first in the southeast, but in general averaging out close to normal.

UK Outlook for Thursday 22 Sep 2016 to Thursday 6 Oct 2016:

The most likely scenario during late September and the first week of October is for mostly unsettled conditions to prevail across all parts, although again northern and western areas are more likely to have the wettest and windiest weather. We can expect showers or longer spells of rain in all areas, but interspersed with some dry and bright intervals, the best of which are likely to be found in the south and east. The temperature through this period should average out at around normal in the north and west, although it may become warm at times in the south and east. The wind will occasionally be strong, with gales likely at times, especially in the north and west.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Met office update

UK Outlook for Wednesday 14 Sep 2016 to Friday 23 Sep 2016:

Currently expected for Wednesday and Thursday are that there will be a slow-moving band of rain lying close to or over west and northern parts of the UK. To the southeast of this frontal band it is likely to be very warm and humid with sunny spells. There is a risk of heavy showers however through the week, some thundery, developing and moving up from the south. As we head towards the weekend a change to cooler, changeable conditions is likely from the west. Thereafter unsettled conditions are expected to continue, with showers or longer spells of rain at times, especially in the north and northwest, and drier and brighter in the southeast. There is a possibility of a spell of drier and more settled conditions becoming established more widely.

UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Sep 2016 to Saturday 8 Oct 2016:

The most likely scenario during late September and the first week of October is for mostly unsettled conditions to prevail across all parts, although again northern and western areas are more likely to have the wettest and windiest weather. We can expect showers or longer spells of rain in all areas, but interspersed with some dry and bright intervals, the best of which are likely to be found in the south and east. Perhaps a drier more settled spell can be expected towards late September. The temperature through this period should average out at around normal in the north and west, although it may become warm at times in the south and east. The wind will occasionally be strong, with gales likely at times, especially in the north and west.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Unprecedented disruption to atmosphere's pacemaker foretells wet winter for Europe

"For example, there's a strong statistical suggestion that the QBO influences the North Atlantic Oscillation, a pattern of seesawing atmospheric pressures that dominates European weather. When the QBO winds are in a westerly phase, pressure differences over the North Atlantic tend to be more extreme. That strengthens the jet stream and boosts the chances that northern Europe will experience warmer, stormier winters like this past one, which brought floods to the United Kingdom. The expected easterly phase at the end of this year would have given northern Europe a good shot at a colder, drier winter. Instead, the return to westerly winds means that Europeans are more likely to see another stormy winter. "It's not a sure thing that that would be the forecast, but it loads the dice toward those sorts of conditions," says Scott Osprey, a climate scientist at the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom and lead author of the Science study."

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/09/unprecedented-disruption-atmospheres-pacemaker-foretells-wet-winter-europe 

I bloody hope not. Too many communities have been devastated by flooding in recent years and the last thing they need is even more rain.

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I">http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/09/unprecedented-disruption-atmospheres-pacemaker-foretells-wet-winter-europe