An extreme positive NAO could actually bring a drier than average winter in the South. 1988-89 remains the signature westerly drought winter. It's about time we had a run of these after years and years of either cold and dry or warm and wet.

Last winter was the eternal Autumn. Maybe 2016/17 can be an eternal Spring instead.

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Thursday 15 Sep 2016 to Saturday 24 Sep 2016:

Eastern areas may remain sunny and very warm initially on Thursday, however elsewhere it will be cloudy and humid with outbreaks of rain spreading erratically eastwards, these turning heavy and thundery in places. Fresher, showery conditions with near average temperatures will follow this rain from the west through Thursday, perhaps not reaching the southeast until the weekend. The weekend is likely to bring some rain to many areas, at least for a time, perhaps with strong winds in the north, however there should also be some decent dry and bright spells. Into the following week, a drier, more settled period of weather should develop across many parts of the country, bringing some warm sunshine at times, however the far north could remain cooler and cloudier with some rain at times.

UK Outlook for Sunday 25 Sep 2016 to Sunday 9 Oct 2016:

There is a small chance of dry and settled weather across all areas at the start of this period, however the most likely scenario is that any fine, warm and sunny weather will be confined to southern and eastern areas, while northern and western parts will be cooler and windier with rain at times. As we move into October, cooler and more changeable, sometimes unsettled weather is likely to extend across all areas. Showers or longer spells of rain will move eastwards across the country, interspersed with some drier, brighter and warmer intervals. Rain will tend to be heaviest in the north and west where it could also be windy at times, while the south and east will have the best of any dry and bright spells.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

All seems very vague on precipitation/storms this week?

GLOSEA5 latest update is none too shabby, extensive Northern blocking and ties in nicely with the EC seasonal from last week. Now if this is still showing the same come November Ill start getting excited, until then weather porn at its finest.

 

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Nick Miller gives a lesson on advection and insolation in his weekly forecast: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/37344616

After seeing a couple of recent forecasts by Nick, I have to say I think he's quite a talent at presenting the weather to the masses 

 

 

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Wednesday 21 Sep 2016 to Friday 30 Sep 2016:

Wednesday should be cloudy in the north and west with outbreaks of rain, heaviest and most persistent in the north where it will also be rather windy. This rain will slowly move southeastwards, but southeast England likely to stay dry and bright. For the rest of the period changeable and often unsettled conditions look most likely. The northwest should see the wettest and windiest weather, with showers or longer spells of rain, near average temperatures and a risk of gales, with only brief drier interludes. The southeast could also get some rain at times, but there should be more in the way of drier and brighter weather, perhaps with a longer spell of dry and warm weather developing for a time.

UK Outlook for Saturday 1 Oct 2016 to Saturday 15 Oct 2016:

The most likely scenario for the first half of October is for a continuation of the changeable and often unsettled weather. Northwestern parts are likely to see the wettest and windiest weather, with only limited sunnier interludes. It looks to be generally drier and brighter in the southeast, with any wetter spells fairly brief. Temperatures are likely to be near normal for the time of year, but the southeast could continue to see temperatures slightly above average at times. There is a chance that settled and cool conditions may develop fairly widely towards the middle part of October, but confidence in this is very low at present.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Thursday 22 Sep 2016 to Saturday 1 Oct 2016:

With a generally southwesterly theme to the weather during this period changeable conditions look most likely to dominate. The northwest should see the wettest and windiest weather, with showers or longer spells of rain, near or somewhat average temperatures and a risk of gales, with brief drier interludes. The southeast is also likely to also see some rain and cloud at times, but there should be more in the way of settled, drier and brighter weather. During more settled spells, however, overnight and early morning, mist and fog are likely. There is a chance of a settled spell becoming prolonged and seeing dry and warm weather developing in the south or southeast, for a time, but confidence for this is rather low, otherwise temperatures here will be around average.

UK Outlook for Sunday 2 Oct 2016 to Sunday 16 Oct 2016:

The most likely scenario for the first half of October is for a continuation of the changeable weather. Northwestern parts are likely to see the wettest and windiest weather, with only limited sunnier interludes. It looks to continue to be generally drier and brighter in the southeast, with any wetter spells fairly brief. Temperatures are likely to be near normal for the time of year, but the southeast could continue to see temperatures above average at times. There is a chance that settled and cool conditions may develop fairly widely towards the middle part of October, but confidence in this is very low at present.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Fits in with what CFS is showing.....................though it is CFS

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Friday 23 Sep 2016 to Sunday 2 Oct 2016:

A mostly fine end to this week for most. Wetter and windier conditions across the far northwest will gradually spread southeastwards over the weekend, most places seeing some rain by the end of next Sunday. Through the last week of September, the changeable, and often unsettled conditions look to continue. Bands of rain pushing in from the northwest will be interspersed with drier, brighter, but often showery conditions. The northwest always most at risk of the wettest and windiest weather, with a risk of gales. The southeast seeing more of the settled, drier weather, which may extend more widely by the end of the period. Early morning mist and fog are likely in the more settled periods. Temperatures will generally be near average, though locally rather warm in the southeast.

UK Outlook for Monday 3 Oct 2016 to Monday 17 Oct 2016:

There is currently very low confidence for details, however the most likely scenario for the first half of October is for a continuation of the changeable weather. Northwestern parts will probably continue to be most likely to see the wettest and windiest weather, with only limited sunnier interludes. Southeastern parts of the UK will continue to be favoured for seeing the best of the drier and brighter conditions, with any wetter spells possibly tending to be fairly brief here. Temperatures are likely to be generally near normal for the time of year, though parts of the southeast could continue to have locally warm conditions.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Forecast Summary

• 
  

  Today

  
  

  Any early patchy fog will clear. Then mainly dry across Kent and East Sussex, with bright or sunny intervals, the highest temperatures and isolated sharp afternoon showers. Elsewhere cloud will increase, with outbreaks of rain arriving from the northwest later.

  
  


• 
  

  Tonight

  
  

  A few heavy showers are possible across the far southeast. Meanwhile outbreaks of rain continue across remaining areas, bringing a risk of hill fog.

  
  

What shame that they making worse forecasts and not realizing what going on outside for days, they assumed it was clear last night as fog cannot form under overcast conditions and they assumed here is sunny by saying cloud will increase, excuse me it already overcast here and what more they can increase?  Do their stupid super computers does not pick up what going on outside now?  Surely the forecasters in the 3 world countries that don't have proper technology will do more correct forecasts. In the last month or 2 I been looking out from the window and make plans ahead since they been making wrong forecasts all the time non-stop.

Met office update

UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Sep 2016 to Monday 3 Oct 2016:

Through the weekend, it's likely to turn rather windy for all, with a risk of gales across some northwestern parts, though lighter winds across the southeast at first on Saturday. Cloud and rain in the far northwest should gradually push southeastwards, bringing rain to all by the end of the weekend, however starting dry and bright in the southeast. Through the end of September and into October, the changeable conditions look set to continue. Northwestern parts should see the wettest and windiest weather with a risk of gales, whereas southeastern parts should remain largely drier and brighter, though even here some rain looks likely at times. Temperatures remaining around or just above average for the time of year, though warm at times in the east and southeast.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 4 Oct 2016 to Tuesday 18 Oct 2016:

There is currently low confidence in the details through October, however the most likely scenario is a continuation of the changeable weather. Northwestern parts should see the wettest weather and stronger winds, with southeastern parts favouring the best of the drier weather, though still perhaps some rain at times. As we move through October, there is an increasing likelihood of seeing more widespread rain and strong winds at times across the UK. Temperatures should be near normal for the time of year, though milder at times in the south and east.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

To use your catchphrase "that is not acceptable".

I think our Jiries must have experienced the Monday Morning Blues quite terribly this morning.  

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http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/weather/uk-weather-britain-set-for-another-heatwave-with-temperatures-parking-at-10c-above-september-average/ar-BBwmGbR?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=iehp

interesting report by the mirror  about storms for October/November even MR BRIAN is mentioned

I take it you hadn't noticed who wrote that article.

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Goodbye winter chill: Britain set for MAJOR HEAT SPELL as hot air sweeps in next week

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/712206/UK-weather-hot-spell-heatwave-September-continent 

It just beggars belief that this guy can continue to peddle this trash and it get mopped up my main-steam media.

In the end it probably says more about the brain dead morons who buy this shxte.

Rao will only produce them if they sell and they obviously do!

Interesting only in that the story was obviously not checked for accuracy before being published!  And the author doesn't know the difference between mean and maximum

Obviously didn't pass his 11+.   Or was it a junior hack from the primary school dept?

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That's worth double points during a spell of quiet weather in September.

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">http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/712206/UK-weather-hot-spell-heatwave-September-continent