The GFS 12z continues its cold and cyclonic theme.

Detail hard to pin down though from this range.

Just for fun - the whole of the UK & Ireland except Penzance Cornwall and Inverness and Aberdeen!

And, of course, coastal Devon (N & S); Pembroke coast; S. Dorset; E. Kent (lot of posters there!);various Hebrides and eastern fringes of Norfolk.

Those snow forecasts charts are pure trash at the best of times.

And the Channel Islands but Im not going to worry because its not going to happen

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016022612/ECH1-216.GIF?26-0

better off looking north, not east.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2016022612/gem-1-240.png?12

GEM,

Polar maritime air can deliver snow showers. Obviously there is not going to be a freeze up, but this is the best we can do at this time of year

I'm not so sure

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016022612/ECH1-240.GIF?26-0

severe frosts likely but nice sunny days

Northerlies don't really "float my boat" but alot of the UK would do alright out of that for snow probably.

Long way out though!😧

A fair ole splash for some parts of the country that are usually among the driest areas in the next week. . The distribution of the rain is quite variable too.

MJO in phase 7/8 and a strat vortex that finally (what a beast!) is on the way out means a cold few wks ahead!

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81

Update from Matt.

But of course! haha I know - just good to see the whole of the UK & Ireland covered in snow but the sad thing is this will be the exact opposite come the day.

GFS frontal overlay for 168

Looking very wintry. That occluded front could bring some snow

By Mid March ! 

I actually think they are better than 850hpa temperatures as long as they are used right. The GFS charts come in a variety of resolutions, always use 0.25 degree precip type charts; low resolution causes snow to appear worse than it is because of 9 point smoothing. Also showers are smoothed in time over 3 hours and made to look like persistent snow; this is something to bear in mind.

My advice is to use 0.25 degree charts on a European wide level. I'd also avoid netweather as their precip type chart viewer is badly coded (hint: GFS does NOT understand sleet; any GFS chart with sleet being shown on it is basically an advert saying: I haven't put enough time into making this chart!).

850s are of course okay but people abuse them so much by using some constant benchmark like the -6C line without taking into account any nuonce which is ridiculous given that on the dry air ahead of an ana warm front an 850hpa temp of 0C can support snow sometimes.

The Southerners are largely keeping the site traffic ticking over at the moment (apart from the odd member from elsewhere keen to correct them all the time) 😊😉

More cool cloudy uninspiring weather on the ECM cards this morning. 

Ecm still tormenting us coldies with Jam tomorrow charts. Probably still just cold rain in he South though. Part of me wants to give up and look for Spring warmth now but there is little on show this morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

Although the GFS at the same time has some nice Spring warmth.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/temperatures-maximales/234h.htm

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

The 564 line makes it to the Black Sea on the Fax charts; I always have a little spin when this line makes inroads into Europe/W Asia.

From a purely "scientific" point of view it will be interesting to see what effect the next warming stratospheric warming will have. This time it looks like a genuine major SSW (after the previous minor one). http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php?plot=fluxes&alert=1&lng=eng 

Academic to an extent at this stage of winter but interesting nonetheless and not an overly good omen for a warm early spring.