It looks as though we are heading towards a more northerly spell of weather. Synoptics look good. As others have eluded it appears a little too warm for a spell of snowy weather in the 'wintry sense'. 

We now move into March, a new game. Cold uppers combined with unstable northerlies are a recipe for tasty convection. Increased solar energy combined with such cold uppers have a tendency to provide some of the heaviest precipitation. 

We may not be looking at sustained cold and lying snow but the possibility of afternoon heavy snow showers is there for the taking almost anywhere.

The key word is highlighted in your post. The first sentence is indeed correct as far as I know. However the gradual warming and dissipation of the PV is a different kettle of fish compared with a sudden stratospheric warming. The latter is programmed to happen. What it will lead to is a different issue!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016022712/gfs-0-198.png?12

Looks like the consensus is growing for a scandi high, not that cold yet

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016022712/gfs-1-216.png?12

LOL

the colder air is in the atlantic. Amazing temp contrast as well

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016022712/gfs-2-216.png?12

looks to be a more unstable easterly as well so ppn about, probably just cold rain or snizzle at the moment

If it freezes on St Mathias' Day, it will freeze for a month together.

St Mathias breaks the ice; if he finds none, he will make it.

Take your pick of these sayings; they are models of a sort, I suppose, and probably just as reliable as any other LRF. St Mathias' day was Feb 24th.

I'd lay a sizeable bet it wont happen.

What odds? 

100/1? Evens? 

Meaningless otherwise.

For what it's worth, 10 out of the 20 runs of the London GEFS offer snow. Doesn't mean the forecast is for snow to be an even money chance, just that the model parameters generate that outcome. But at least it offers a bit more information than simply "it wont (sic) happen."

Its looking increasingly likely that we are in for a long long period of below average temperatures and probably wont see any significant warmth until well into May.One of those too common years where winter drags on and on! Only in the uk does the sun get stronger and the days get longer and it doesn`t warm up.Unless we get Aprils like 2007 and 2011 its cold until 2nd half of May.The uk climate really is crap!!!

I would love to disagree with you, but I can't 

We only need to look back to 2013 to see what could be a possible upshot of a long cold spell in spring. While 2007 and 2011 both had an excellent April, the May that followed along with the summer in both years were rather mediocre to say the least. In 2013, after the very cold early part of spring, we had our first decent summer for 7 years with a memorable two week long heatwave in July.

I'd sooner that real warmth waits until rather later in the spring/approach to summer anyway, when it will be of most use to people in terms of outdoor activities etc.

Can anyone remember the beginning of March 2009?? - What was the set up then? - I remember it well. WHY? Well (snowed when I was away).- I was skiing in Austria when the South and SW England had up to 4" of snow overnight (Wet) but I can't remember what date the snow fell on or what the sort of set up was...anyone!? Is it anywhere near to the set up we could have by next weekend?

Actually this reminds me of 1995, but with a piquante dressing of 2013 on one side; the dish is cooked two ways with a spicy undertone of Nov-Dec 1994 followed by a suggestion of late Feb- early March 13 just teasing the palate but not enough to detract from the star of the meal, the well done slab of nothing-to-write-home-about.

Well it's been a kitchen nightmare down here and I'm definitely refusing to pay the bill 😉

GFS and GEM have flipped to mild. Euros still holding firm

I'm sure everyone is delighted with the cold (but not cold enough to snow) and unsettled outlook.

Just look at the warmth in Eastern Europe. Crazy for this time of year. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A strong ridge of High pressure lying across Scotland will slip South across England and Wales over the next 24 hours or so with a strengthening Westerly flow developing across the North as a trough of Low pressure approaches the West and NW later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK remains around 2000-3000ft. The level will begin to creep upwards later tomorrow in the extreme West. There will be very little wintry precipitation anywhere across the UK today.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Rather cold and breezy with rain or showers at times with snow on hills. Temperatures mostly rather below average with frosts at night in places.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream's main theme this morning shows a SE moving flow from Newfoundland to Southern Europe on this morning's forecast before it becomes a rather more variable feature through Week 2 especially over Europe.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the next week becoming unsettled and windy with rain and showers at times as a strong Westerly flow begins to take hold across the UK from tomorrow. This flow veers NW or North at times with colder air sweeping South at times behind several milder interludes with rain as Low pressure plummets SE over Europe. The South then shows a more coherent drier and possibly less chilly spell for a time at the start of the second week as High pressure edges up closer to the South before this recedes West and then North swinging winds back through North to a more Easterly flow with cold and frosty weather perhaps with a few wintry showers near eastern coasts ends the period.

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run's theme is very similar in theme through Week 1 this morning but following a cold and wintry Northerly flow sees High pressure move across the UK from the West in Week 2 maintaining it then across the UK for the final week with dry, fine and sunny weather by day and very frosty conditions by night in light winds and pleasant enough feeling days.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show High pressure being the controlling feature in two weeks time with the centre likely to lie close to the West with a chilly North flow likely but a lot of dry weather too. Those that don't support this theme show more influence from Low pressure to the North and NE while a few show High pressure to the NE with a SE flow and Low pressure over the Atlantic so no overwhelming evidence of one pattern between one pattern or another yet.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows milder, unsettled and windy conditions developing this week with several spells of wet and windy weather sweeping East and SE across the UK on Tuesday and again on Thursday with cold and showery NW winds in between with wintry showers on hills especially over the North and West later in the week as complex Low pressure by then lies over the UK by next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a complex but generally unsettled and windy period of weather developing this week with rain at times followed by cold NW winds with wintry showers on occasion later in the week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today shows a rather cold and unsettled spell coming up with winds from a chilly NW direction for a large proportion of the time over the next 10 days.. In between will be short milder and wet weather with some heavy rain in places with all the above giving way to drier and cold conditions towards the end of the period as a strong ridge of High pressure builds NE across the UK at the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today too shows an unsettled and rather cold week to come with Low pressure areas slipping SE across the UK or the North Sea over the next week with rain and showers turning wintry at times over the hills with something a little drier and brighter though still chilly conditions developing right at the end of the period as a ridge builds NE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM this morning shows cold and unsettled and windy conditions for all of the UK over the next 10 days with Low pressure systems taking a SE route either down the North Sea or across the UK through the period, each bringing a spell of rain and strong winds followed by a chilly or cold NW flow with wintry showers with snow on high ground and some frosts at night. The pattern shows a look of a rinse and repeat pattern at day 10 as Low pressure appears poised to move SE again from the NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows a gradual shift East of the trough previously shown across the UK suggesting a gradual trend towards High pressure becoming more influential from the West at that time with temperatures still rather chilly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme shows rather cold and unsettled weather for the UK with winds generally between West and North throughout though some growing evdence towards more settled conditions is shown by some later.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.5 pts to UKMO at 89.3 pts and GFS at 87.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 68.0 pts to 64.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads today at 52.1 pts to GFS's 50.2 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  This weeks weather is going to be characterized by a lot of rather cold and windy weather as Low pressure areas stream down from the NW over the North Sea and later across the UK with bands of rain followed by showers likely for all areas through the week. With winds dragged down from Northern latitudes in the showery air some snowfall is likely over the hills especially over the North and the chill will often be accentuated by the strength of the breeze at times too with some frosts at night. Then looking further ahead there appears to be a chance that High pressure will with time ridge across the UK from the SW settling things down somewhat with rather chilly bright or even sunny days but with more widespread sharp night time frosts. However, this pattern looks far from a given as there is also support for a continuation of a similar theme as this week with further rain and wintry showers at times in a theme of weather coming down from the NW across the UK at times. Whichever, way the weather turns in week 2 there is little to suggest that the weather is going to feel particularly Springlike in the coming few weeks with temperatures remaining overall somewhat below average. Having said all that the pattern is a typical early Spring one with any winds from the NW or North threatening at least a view of wintriness falling from the sky commonplace in March with the coming two weeks offering this chance at times. With temperatures suppressed and the Winter we have had as being so mild I'm sure that at times it will feel as cold as anything we have experienced through the Winter months so for many looking for early Spring it may feel a long way away still at times in the next few weeks.          

Next Update Monday February 29th 2016 from 09:00 

GFS flipped to mild?  Milder for some days perhaps but the 0z is not a mile run overall.  

Run this chart sequence - looks like we will experience a good week of dry settled weather - between 6th and 13th March:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=174&mode=0&carte=0&run=0

The only model shows that is the GFS 06z.

Options Duane, not necessarily OP RUNS 😄

Show me a persistent signal for -10 uppers across most of the U.K. (as a very basic reference  for any risk of snowfall in early March) in any chart - Op, mean or ensemble, and I will happily reconsider.