The GFS is the most progressive, the UKMO is the least progressive with the ECM in the middle.

I'd tend to say the GFS is the least contrived solution and the UKMO the most unrealistic, however I would be inclined to favour the ECM solution given its higher verification stats and support from the UKMO.

Therefore I think the GFS12z will be an upgrade on the 6Z.

Sensationalism, and probably on the wrong thread.

Edit: I see it's moved to media. Good choice. (My comment was about CCs long post- not the one that precedes my comment- I just didn't want to 'quote' all that space.

Just a gentle reminder to all posters to please post links to media related info in the media thread rather than in this one.

Thanks.

DeBilt 2m, a decent guide to snow chances, show a gradual upward trend into March.

That chart at least does not inspire me to consider the hype of some on here today.

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim

And the new +84 fax. On paper decent synoptics, but the 528dm is only just into Scotland once again indicating the poor depth of cold from the North. I'm not deliberately being belligerent here, just realistic in the presence of some borderline ramping by a certain member.

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=2000&ech=0

Yes not much sign of winter in the Netherlands in terms of absolute temperatures at least. There is however an increase in the snowfall probability based on that link. http://www.weerplaza.nl/gdata/eps/eps_pluim_snow_06260.png 

Cool and unsettled does seem to be the favourite at the moment with the risk of wintry weather for some. The 12z GEFS data seem to back that up to an extent. Cool rather than cold.

 Edit: Neil it is hard to work out from the +84hr FAX but I think the majority of England and Wales and an eastern sliver of Scotland is in sub 528dam air at that point.

GEFS12z again looks chilly but it still looks a case of 'close but no cigar' in the south IMO.

Updated fax chart for Wednesday;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

Most of the UK within the 528 dam and an unstable air mass to boot hence the heavy, wintry showers forecast.

Not even that close, really. I was on the Thames in central London today and despite a NE'ly wind (and -7C 850s) it still didn't feel as cold as those numbers suggest - especially when the sun popped out from the clouds. Indeed, St James's Park reached 9C - spring has sprung, despite the cold air aloft!

As I said a week or so back, unless there are -10Cs at 850 it's simply not worth getting excited about down here. Yeah, you can get the odd exception inland with elevation (ie 6th April 2008, when the wolf centre on the Berkshire Downs had 3 inches of sopping wet snow, whereas in Leysdown it was just rain).

no not for me.. that was some high quality snow that fell that April morning and we had over 4 inches.. It was beautiful powdery stuff.. It was just a shame by 9am it was clearing and the powerful April sun was already workinyg its magic from behind the clouds.. I went back to bed after playing in it only to wake just after midday to find it had all but vanished. 

He's not posted for the last three days. Could be to do with the fact his JFF posts were criticised by others, or perhaps he's having a break for other reasons  

I hope it's not the former. It's just a weather forum after all - and none of the posts were personal to Gooner, more born out of frustration with the poor winter 

Can't say I'm overly excited with the models at present  I don't see the point in these cold synoptics if we've got nothing decent to tap into in Europe. Might as well trash it and move on to spring - there's some decent warmth to the sun now 

Quite a bit of disagreement about exactly how things will play out this week, nonetheless I'd be surprised if I don't see some snowfall over the next 7 days.

Yeah.

Best not worry and be that upbeat about the conditions that we expect to require but as we have seen, late winter has seen 1.5 deg  c above normal temperatures in general especially nights, the day's also just a tad cool and not that many very cold days same as not many air frosts either.  GFS and UKMO 00z were better, GFS is following the UKMO closely for Thursday to Friday, and  Saturday it does not look that very cold just as cold as in early to mid part of the day 9 to day 16 of this February 2016.

The UKMO is less very cold on Friday than the GFS, which for Friday and Saturday does not look very cold based on the realistic results of actual conditions we have seen both in January and middle Feb said period, only one or two short spells of coltish weather in Central and SE parts in January, and it looks almost same temps wise for both months.

The BBC Met Office forecasts temperatures and GFS 0.5 km Europe Continent with part of UK, look just at or slightly above the seasonal normal next 7 days.

There is still time for any upgrades but give last 2 months we have seen, it is highly likely that for except Wednesday it won't be snowing in London, but surprises can come it just depends on the upgrading of Sub 528 dam air, -35 to -40 uppers in the GFS 500 hPa charts it is showing -30 at times innit,, and 850's hPa has to be lower than -7 ha ha ha.  The GFS and UKMO do not look like offering up this, and the more likey is for mins. of 0-2 deg.c and maxes of 6-9 deg.c and in the GFS and UKMO next 5-6 or 7 days it is important to get to below about 4 deg. C for any chance of snow, and that my friends is not looking that possible, especially based on today's 12z UKMO 120 and 144hr charts, just not cold enough.

i agree there- total waste of Synoptics sadly. I do hope Goon returns soon- it's model output discussion after all and he has every right to post his JFF charts. 

May get some snow on the Pennines and higher parts of Sheffield though at times?

up the owls 

jas

I think Gooner was seriously pissed off about the unnecessary comments aimed at him and his JFF charts the other day, and I don't blame him!

I hope he is lurking and makes a return soon. I believe it would be a shame for this thread if he permanently leaves the building.

I like Cooling Climates enthusiasm and I hope he is right. But I have to agree with others. If I look at the current ensemble for London it shows chilly/colder than average weather, but no hints of anything more wintry. 

I doubt if Gooner is going to let some irrelevant comment by some irrelevant little X%@ck: dissuade him from posting.  

Regarding the 18z GFS and the 12z ECMWF Model Prognosis...

If this Very cold prediction indeed holds up to as it is teasing may happen to transpire, I can see a very cold and sleety Wednesday, Friday and Saturday indeed, with Cyclogenesis timed for March 2016, looks good for hail sleet and snow showers but I am thinking they represent SE England seeing min's of 1 deg. C and maximum's of 5-6 deg. C.

Westerly with often NW winds plus a Northerly sting as well.

This means UKMO Model is trailing behind in 12z run, but the 00z run was similarly good for coldness and was much like GFS and ECMWF 12z, GFS also 18z, can this continue to be upgraded???.

😅😉❄️🌨🌩⛈. Plenty of Convective showers some packing in very cold rain indeed.

Update: here come the t96 and t120h Bracka fax charts, they certainly are progressive like GFS and ECMWF 12z run Sub 528 dam line covers whole of the U.K., especially more so Friday lol

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif?2

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif?2

Warm Air Advection up NE USA Newfoundland at 96-120 spins across just out over from SW of Greenland  over the sea then move up West Greenland on the UKMO t144 chart from NF.  It looks good, and North West High and Mid C North Atlantic High link with Greenland high from 96-120hr shows the third PV Low diving SE to cross the UK and then Central West NW Europe as well- wintry precipitation with Sub. 528 line indeed on the menu.

New York is seeing record breaking late February warmth, 17 deg Celsius wahay 😎, they probably hit 18 deg. Celsius today yay.

They went down to -26 deg Celsius in end early Late January 2016, they continued very cold then and that cold period for them lasted 2 weeks.  East SE and NE USA also had a very cold middle January 2016 with freezing rain sleet and 1-2 foot of snow- Washington and New York> 15-20 inches, it was 6-8 inches higher in some East mid Atlantic E USA states.

 They also had further heavy snow in early part of February about just before we were getting ready for return to cold average conditions with some wintry weather we were due by the Friday-Sat 12-13 Feb et all!.😄.

Often South USA last week and week before been warming up particularly last week and right now, and last couple days.

Large areas of Canada on very cold side but Calgary in west not as cold during February!!. East Canada also very cold, much of USA this February been warmer than normal West to East.  The West NW side USA and over NE Pacific plenty of Low Pressure been there in this Jan- Feb. 2016, some heavy rain and severe flooding SE USA 5-6 days ago, with severe tornado outbreaks in some parts SE USA Tuesday to Thursday I think last week (fairly sure).

And for about 3 days running I have noticed areas of rain sleet and snow with Low Pressure dotted about in NW to North and NE USA location that clearly is a west to east tracking Jetstream, this looks likely to bring us cold air from NW Atlantic and Canada Greenland and Iceland etc..

💤😇😏. hands on tight get ready admin/ mods- please get new thread started soon.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure across Southern Britain will decline away SE today followed by troughs of Low pressure in a strengthening West or SW wind through the day and overnight. Following a cold front East over the UK tomorrow a cold and showery Westerly flow will develop.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will lift from the West through the day with values exceeding 5000-6000ft tonight before falling again towards 2000ft later tomorrow with early snow over Northern hills and mountains turning to rain but returning to many hills again tomorrow in the form of showers.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Rather cold and breezy with rain or showers at times with snow on hills. Temperatures mostly rather below average with frosts at night in places.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is predicted to blow SE across the Atlantic and France over the coming week with a deep trough across the UK by next weekend with this pattern only slowly reducing to more of a West to East pattern though still blowing quite a way further South than average through the second week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows mostly rather cold and unsettled conditions likely across the UK this week with winds from a West or NW direction driving wintry showers and some longer periods of rain or sleet with hill snow East and SE across all areas through the period. Then as we move through the second week changes are slow with the weather remaining rather cold and changeable for many with rain at times with further snowfall and strong winds affecting the North in particular at times.

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run's theme follows a similar course as the Operational through the first week with a lot of chilly West or NW winds and wintry showers with snow on fairly modest hills nationwide at times. The coldness if anything enhances next weekend as Low pressure just to the East swings winds Northerly. Then through the second week the run diverges a little from the Operational with a milder but still damp period under West or SW winds before pressure builds to the East and encourages trough disruption across the UK at the end of the run with rain at times along with chillier conditions.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show strong support for High pressure to lie across the UK in 14 days time as the clusters suggest a 75%/25% split towards this scenario. The remaining 25% show Low pressure from the West bringing rain at times in a milder SW'ly flow more likely.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning is a very chilly one for March as Low pressure areas moving SE over or to the NE of the UK later this week culminate in a complex Low pressure area over and just to the East of the UK at the weekend with Northerly winds and wintry showers the order of the days with frosts at night in shelter 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show the complexities of the SE moving fronts and depressions towards the UK later in the week and how it engages with cold air from Northern latitude sources later in the week too with a mixture of rain, wind and wintry showers in quite cold conditions relative to March.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today shows a similar pattern to the rest of the output with a chilly week to come with rain and showers turning wintry across hills over all parts of the UK. Once to the East of the UK the Northerly down across the UK persists for several days next weekend before a ridge of High pressure ridging NE across the UK next week dries things up with sharp overnight frosts.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows the rather cold and unsettled theme too with cold winds from the NW and then North next weekend ensuring rain and showers at times throughout the period turning to snow at times on hills nationwide at times especially later as further Low pressure disrupts SE across the UK at the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM this morning shows cold and unsettled and windy conditions for all of the UK over the next week with rain and snow at times across the UK, the snow mostly but not exclusively over the hills. Then after a cold and wintry weekend with snow showers in places the pattern flattens next week with High pressure to the South and Low pressure to the North bringing milder Westerly winds across the UK with rain at times particularly to the North with longer drier spells across the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows a gradual shift East of the trough previously shown across the UK suggesting a gradual trend towards High pressure becoming more influential from the West at that time with temperatures still rather chilly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The pattern between the models is well documented for this week as rather cold and unsettled conditions are projected by all models. Thereafter, there is more variability mostly surrounding how much High pressure from the West or SW interacts with the previously chilly and unsettled conditions across the UK.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.1 pts to UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 87.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 67.7 pts to 64.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM and GFS tie at 50.3 pts each.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  The models share a similar theme in the next week with all output suggesting a cold and rather windy period of weather to come across the UK throughout this week and next weekend as Low pressure areas move SE down over the UK later dragging rather cold uppers down across the UK from the NW and with much instability aloft moving across relatively warm seas a lot of showers and some more persistent spells of rain for all seem likely on most days. It also looks that winds could veer Northerly next weekend enhancing the cold further for a time with snow showers especially near coasts, lighter winds with frosts at night. Then as we move further out into the less guaranteed period of 7-14 days the focus shifts on how much High pressure lying across the Atlantic one week from now shifts towards the UK settling things down with frosty nights but dry, bright and fine days. The GFS Clusters this morning strongly support this theme whereas the ECM operational at Day 10 sinks any High pressure South of the UK supporting a milder Westerly airflow developing next week with rain at times especially for the North and West. The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart this morning continues to grow the theme of High pressure ridging NE through the UK at day 10 suggesting that when taken as a whole and given the GFS theme too most output supports fine and pleasant weather possible from the middle of next week but with frosts at night.          

Next Update Tuesday March 1st 2016 from 09:00

The 'persistent spells of rain' (see Gibby's review above) show up in this model output

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

Indeed, Gibby's suggestion of high pressure (from GFS) conflicts with the second map

Cold and wintry looking runs this morning for sure.

A bit of everything in the coming week ahead bar mild that is.