Hey, I'm not that fat!!

At the moment the weather outlook if you believe the latest UKMO 12z run updated charts, then most of us it looks cool and wet with Low Pressure over Northern UK, while Southern UK is expected to be pleasantly warm with mixture of cloudiness and some sunny spells as well, the UKMO looks fine for Monday the 26th as well and also for Tuesday 27th June and for Tuesday today's GFS and ECMWF still have that wild looking Low Pressure, on the 12z GFS it has indeed reduced chance of coolness with warmer Thundery showers being more likely on Tuesday and Wednesday.  This the UKMO has not supported today but in yesterday's 12z run it looked like today's 12z GFS with trof's forming for the 27-28th June.

Next few days this prediction is still can show further divergence from previous GFS and EMWF predictions they showed the extreme deep Low Pressure for said period and the GFS is just today starting to side towards the UKMO less cool solution with trof's and mild sector's showing they can reduce the potency of this Low Pressure, next few days they will pick up more sensible outputs.

A little dip, then a rise, followed by more extended dip, and then a much bigger rise...

I'm reckoning that either that bigger rise will extend or the deeper dip will decrease.

Well on the cool side of the jetstream by the middle of next week

 Like any forecast, beyond 5-6 days becomes uncertain, but most forecasts give the more changeable weather going on into July That chart of the jetstream could at best just keep it cool and showery or at worst some fairly active for the time of year low pressure systems causing more general wind and rain.

Ok I'll concede defeat now, it looks as though we will have a very unsettled end to June, it looks as though a low pressure system will form over the UK and deliver some cool weather.

Could be quite blustery at times too as the low pressure moves east and intensifies as it bumps into the hot air over the continent. Its uncertain as to whether this will be a prolonged cooler spell however.

Even the best Summers have their blips 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1976/noaa/NOAA_1_1976073100_1.gif

Indeed. The midday GEFS update isn't conclusive either. IMO there continue to be signs of an improvement as we head through the first week of July.

yes i made this point yesterday 1976 had some cooler spells in fact barring the first week it was quite unsettled and didnt really improve until the end of july with august being hot and sunny so there is hope yet.

the models are showing cool unsettled conditions for about 10 days but a lot can change and quickly.

Every summer is a mix of good (HP dominated) and bad weather. What makes a "good summer" is that the warm, settled spells outnumber the unsettled spells. And the more heavily they outweigh the bad spells determines how much it sticks in our memory as an exceptional summer.

Looks more average than cool to me and occasionally warm in the south. Plume storms possible later Monday/Tuesday

I think the nature, length & timing of warm, settled spells plays a big part, too.

If the whole of June & first two-thirds of July was a washout, but then late July & August was great with universally sunny, dry & warm days, then most of the summer would have been rubbish but most people would consider it a fantastic summer.

1) It happening all at once so people can plan days out/parties/BBQ's/breaks with some confidence

2) Taking place during the kids' school holidays

3) the longer great summer spells last, the more people remember them

Lots of scatter on the ECM 2-metre temperature ensemble as early as Tuesday, with forecast maximum temps ranging from 15C to 26C. With that degree of uncertainty that soon, who knows how July might turn out?

Interesting to note that an increasing number of GFS members want to build pressure briefly to our immediate East which delays the cool air and could potentially turn our low into thundery one. Some of the ensemble members do actually become quite warm for Tuesday:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP05EU00_84_2.png

Others also become extremely wet in the east, P17 is the most extreme but not without support:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP17EU00_132_1.png

Anyone else think that the temperatures will gradually keep ticking upwards? Instead of a cool northerly spell I think there is a risk of a very wet humid spell in the UK as low pressure gets stuck and starts wrapping up some warm air around it.

I still think a cool northerly is the form horse later though, but its duration may be short especially if the Azores high ridges towards Spain again.

 Looks like being a cluttered mess of embedded convective gunk over the bulk of the UK on Tuesday through to Thursday. Hopefully I shall pick up some much needed rain to revive my now parched looking lawn at this end of Kentshire. I think moist and steamy spring to mind.

The Meto fax for Wednesday highlights my thoughts . . .

Good Lord I am looking forward to hearing the assessment of Richard in Aberdeen if this verifies tomorrow. Maximum temp of 7c and heavy rain in Aberdeen and progged just 36 hours away. Richard could have good reason to moan if THIS verifies.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3617.gif

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn364.gif

In fact if this is anywhere near the mark you can't rule out snow over the highest ground in the highlands.

Looks like several days of unsettled weather coming up

This looks pretty warm and humid..

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.html

Why no mentions?

Unsettled this week. GEFS6z looks mediocre in the longer term too. Once we get beyond the next few days it doesn't look like a washout, but equally not something to plan your UK holiday by! Temps look quite close to the average next week, possibly warmer in the south and cooler in the north. Typical English wicket.