The 12z GEFS are riddled with these!

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Is it my imagination or has this rollercoaster ride been even bumpier than most? It was depression in here from some and now it's party time again. 

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Now the GFS OP has upgraded the Para run has downgraded so... - I wonder what the ECM will say?

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Full GEFS out now. Mean for London is back down to bouncing around the -5C line, slightly below in the mid section. Looks like the snowiest set yet, but TWO version not there just yet.

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I think it is clear that despite all the wobbles in the charts lately, that colder weather is on the way. The question is though, will it be a joyous, seasonal and scenic sort of cold that makes one glad to be alive? or that sort of miserable, wet, penetrating sort cold that prompts us to mutter that we can't bloody wait for some Spring warmth? Time will tell I guess. 

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The cold has sort of arrived already - temperature now down to 5C after a mild few days, and that's about as high as it is likely to get for the next 10 days, I would have thought.

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Must be about time for another thread I would have thought since we are now on page 51 of this one, although I will leave that to Brian's discretion.

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HIRLAM high-res flagging up the chance of a wintry mix overnight tonight even in the south.

 

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That is a very good question. While the general trend is continuing to show a generally colder than average outlook (for midwinter) with less cold interludes whether it is “cold enough” to be interesting remains to be seen. As for the GFS, this run shows something encouraging, this morning’s 00z run something much less so. Someone mentioned the 00z runs being less encouraging for cold generally and I have noticed that is the case so I think Wembley need to see this evening’s set as part of a bigger trend. Omorrow’s runs (and indeed the ECM 12z) could be a second poor as this morning’s, which albeit were not awful were a hint at a step away from the general trend/consensus. 

This evening/tonight’s little initial blast of cold air has been incredibly well signposted. Perhaps it will be the start of something good, perhaps not 

 

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Snowmegeddon!  154 snow rows

 

 

 

 

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Although of course this does illustrate the problem with snow rows, in that the first 19 of those are accounted for by the risk of a few blobs of sleet in the drizzle tomorrow!

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Indeed Rob but they're a very good set all the way through.  Remarkable improvement from this morning 

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Thats true, and we should take an err of caution.

 

However thats the lowest grouping of members ive seen in months.  All fairly grouped below 0 and alot grouped to the -5.  Not much scatter north of 0*c, which is very different to recent efforts.

 

I wonder what the ECM scatter will look  like later... thats been looking like the amazon river recently.  I wonder if i will look more like the Humber?

 

EDIT - 162 for Liverpool.  Quite extraordinary turn of events given the tame Winter so far.

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Certainly a significant change and needs to be viewed in that light. If tomorrow’s runs and the ECM are similiar it will be a bit more encouraging.

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Some huge snow row totals up and down the country records all round!

 

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It’s interesting, and thanks to Rob for highlighting, that we have been so fixated to things on the mid term that mini snow events have crept up in the more immediate term.

Time for a snow reports thread?

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ECM 12z on its way but doesn't the starting point look wrong? Certainly nothing like GFS 0 from the 12z

 

Ok - F5...

 

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Notice Anything of interest?

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Agree Heavy Weather, I'll try and find the snow reports thread and blow the dust and cobwebs off it 😂

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Leaving the gfs 12z aside for a moment looking at the ukmo run I would of thought we are in for another cracking ecm run maybe even better than last nights.

The gfs 12z is a superb run showing a convective easterly in a strong perhaps gale force wind. Would feel bitter with drifting powder snow. Because of said gfs problems though if ecm isn't on board ( which I very much doubt) then neither am I.

Run 4 of the GEFS is just absolutely insane. It starts with the sliding low rapidly intensifying as it sinks over the English Channel. Then there is a deep easterly, propped up by (as Quantum pointed out) a Medicane-style low over the Balearics. That pushes a pulse of -14C air over the country at day 10, followed by a second pulse of -14C air at day 14. Finally a renewed surge of heights links up towards Greenland, opening the way to a bitter northerly just after the run finishes.

Seriously, check it out, you'd struggle to invent a better run.

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I'm struggling to see any noteworthy differences. Where in particular?

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Weird caching in my browser!

 

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lol 

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At T144 ECM evolution is different to GFS with the Iceland low not stretching as far south:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_144_1.png 

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