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Virtually the whole country with at least a dusting this time next week, according to the latest GFS.http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2019011612/gfs-16-162.png?12
And an easterly incoming by T168. Swings and roundabouts continue.
GFS currently on track as the best of the winter so far.
This at 171hrs is brilliant
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_171_1.png
Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013
Not sure it will necessarily be the best of the winter, depends if the high can build to the NW rather than slowly sinking into Europe.
you can't make this **** up. Brilliant GFS
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman
Well the signs were there on the 06Z GFS, with some pretty cold members in the 144-180 hour timeframe. I said this morning that I would expect the ensemble mean for that spell to flip to mild or cold soon. The op has gone cold on this one, so let's see if the rest of the pack follows yet.
Not bad :)
Rinse and repeat?
GFS 12z certainly not a run for the wrist slashers. This is why one run should never be taken in isolation. Now why do I worry the ECM will show something totally different
I guess that's the Daily Express's "snow bomb"
Originally Posted by: Rob K
Knowing my lucky, a sleet bomb here.
What I want to see now is tonight's 0Z GFS operational run consolidating what's happened in today's 12Z, rather than reversing it as seems to have been the case for the last two or three days. I think the same applies to the ECM, if not to the same extent.
GEFS mean at 156 says the slider is a go!
Compare to the previous run GEFS mean at the same time here. Massive shift!
Temper your expectations, we've all been here before.
If the ECM is on board then tentative excitement may be warranted. If the ECM disagrees its probably right.
Originally Posted by: Quantum
Looks like a pretty decisive flip in the near-term GEFS though. At T174 the London 850mb mean is now close to -7C versus -3C on the 6Z run.
There are some absolute monsters in the perturbations too. This by T192:
Looks like setting up for the first London -15C run of the winter
Possible medicane on that one!
GFS Parallel still being a party pooper though, not sliding the low nearly so cleanly.
Quite a change from the G(E)FS , there were decent runs in the GEFS this morning so its good to see they have been followed
Short London ensembles. Spot the difference from this morning's poor 00Z, on the left, to the 12Z:
Flippity Flop you don’t stop✋
Much tighter agreement from the 22nd. And a colder outlook from then. All good so far.
It does take a big leap of faith to get from the T288 to that at T324. It could but but at that distance the odds of it following that particular evolution must be quite low. All round a better situation in that op run but I'm waiting for the ensembles because we've been here as recently as yesterday.
Forget FI - in less than a weeks time we could see daytime maxes of 1 or 2c with sleet/snow flurries.