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At T144 ECM evolution is different to GFS with the Iceland low not stretching as far south:Originally Posted by: Sasa
The T+120 chart is the key - this ECM 12z run looking similar to the 00z in how it handles the direction of the US storm, which has repercussions down the line.
Slightly different from the ECM at day 7 but still very good looks snowy almost anywhere. what an amazing turnaround from this morning's 0s the 12s have been
Easterly is there, although it gets beaten back by the Atlantic before those deep purple 850s can head our way. Certainly a big improvement on this morning's operational, but seems consistent with the ensembles.
Edit - just looked at the JMA. Crikey! CMA is also not bad, with an easterly although not as fierce.
ECM @ 216 gearing up for a nice band of heavy snow moving in! I reckon it will have support given today’s runs
Originally Posted by: ballamar
Indeed. and a Good Scandi High waiting to do it's job
I’ve kept out today as I knew the overnight runs were just a blip 😉My favourite this evening is the JMA - the 192 chart is about to deliver an Easterly from the jaws of hell. Proper ‘87 there.
Originally Posted by: nsrobins
What's the JMA's track record for W. Europe, do you think? Is the investment in resolution and ongoing research enough to make the models credible?
Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle
Just subjective but I’d group it in the second string with the old GEM and CMA.
Although there is undoubtedly a big swing in favour of something significant next week, the tried and tested mantra still applies - cross model agreement at 120 (maximum) is required.
Academic at this range but milder air has got ahead of that system,it's more Kettley in the end.
People have been pointing this out on NW - we seem to be going through a spell of poor overnight runs followed by markedly different 12z runs which lifts the mood until the morning !
would have loved to have seen the 264h ECM chart 87 esque
Originally Posted by: Shropshire
Comparing the T+216 and T+240 850 mb temperatures, it looks to me as if the colder air is winning the battle - at least in the south - with the -5 and -10 isotherms starting to move back westwards.
Weird caching in my browser!
Originally Posted by: DickyBill
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman
I've got it here for you - only good for the very far North I'm afraid -
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2001/Rrea00120010205.gif
I was thinking along the lines of this.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1987&maand=1&dag=10&h=0&nmaps=24
Would be great but no LP/Atlantic energy on the 87 chart - the energy has to go somewhere and it would likely disrupt across the UK with the High too far North and rain for most. Anyway thankfully it's T240 and not T24.
Then click on the 850hPa one and you'll see what the difference is!
Originally Posted by: fairweather
That's not the point, what APS shows is possible if the Atlantic system isn't there !
Would be great but no LP/Atlantic energy on the 87 chart - the energy has to go somewhere and it would likely disrupt across the UK with the High too far North and rain for most. Anyway thankfully it's T240 and T24.
It's not a perfect 87 match but that low looks like its going under the block then it would drag the truly frigid easterlies our way. As you say all academic but very good output all round tonight
As T+268 would be the 27th January, a very quick search has come up with this chart: