ECM not quite as good as GFS by 168, but a lot better than the 00Z ECM!

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Slightly different from the ECM at day 7 but still very good looks snowy almost anywhere. what an amazing turnaround from this morning's 0s the 12s have been

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Yep, more energy dropping south on this run. Looks promising.

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Not bad at T192 and both GFS and ECM are not million miles apart.

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I’ve kept out today as I knew the overnight runs were just a blip 😉
My favourite this evening is the JMA - the 192 chart is about to deliver an Easterly from the jaws of hell. Proper ‘87 there.

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Easterly is there, although it gets beaten back by the Atlantic before those deep purple 850s can head our way. Certainly a big improvement on this morning's operational, but seems consistent with the ensembles.

 

Edit - just looked at the JMA. Crikey! CMA is also not bad, with an easterly although not as fierce.

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ECM @ 216 gearing up for a nice band of heavy snow moving in! I reckon it will have support given today’s runs

 

Indeed. and a Good Scandi High waiting to do it's job 

 

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What's the JMA's track record for W. Europe, do you think? Is the investment in resolution and ongoing research enough to make the models credible?

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Slider low coming in off the Atlantic with -20s just across the North Sea. Not a bad 240hr chart to round off the evening.

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Just subjective but I’d group it in the second string with the old GEM and CMA.

Although there is undoubtedly a big swing in favour of something significant next week, the tried and tested mantra still applies - cross model agreement at 120 (maximum) is required. 

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Academic at this range but milder air has got ahead of that system,it's more Kettley in the end.

 

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People have been pointing this out on NW - we seem to be going through a spell of poor overnight runs followed by markedly different 12z runs which lifts the mood until the morning !

 

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would have loved to have seen the 264h ECM chart 87 esque

 

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Comparing the T+216 and T+240 850 mb temperatures, it looks to me as if the colder air is winning the battle - at least in the south - with the -5 and -10 isotherms starting to move back westwards.

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More than happy with the ecm op run tonight. A little juggling of the synoptics and we could see a true bfte aka Feb 18 etc. The run tonight was also more amplified than yesterdays 12z which is a great trend the Jma also.
Would not be at all surprised to see this sitting on the warmer side of the ensembles.

I think you can get something from the chemist for that.

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I've got it here for you - only good for the very far North I'm afraid - 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2001/Rrea00120010205.gif

 

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I was thinking along the lines of this.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1987&maand=1&dag=10&h=0&nmaps=24

 

 

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Would be great but no LP/Atlantic energy on the 87 chart - the energy has to go somewhere and it would likely disrupt across the UK with the High too far North and rain for most. Anyway thankfully it's T240 and not T24.

 

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Then click on the 850hPa one and you'll see what the difference is!

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That's not the point, what APS shows is possible if the Atlantic system isn't there !

 

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It's not a perfect 87 match but that low looks like its going under the block then it would drag the truly frigid easterlies our way. As you say all academic but very good output all round tonight 

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As T+268 would be the 27th January, a very quick search has come up with this chart:

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