theweatheroutlook

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xioni2
08 March 2020 19:32:56


 So I assumed you will apologising to Q as you are now doing what he outlined to some degree. A small majority were calling this correctly since the turn of the year.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Apologise? What for? I was telling his at the time, the time might come to take some measurements, that was clearly not in late January!


Perhaps he or others should apologise for some of the baseless bollocks.

Heavy Weather 2013
08 March 2020 19:37:15


When Quantum, me and some others were warning about this looming pandemic and urging tighter travel restrictions, stopping people going to the Far East for holidays and cruises and then urging closing of borders with countries like Italy, we were scorned.


Jeered at - "isolationist brexiteers" "scaremongering". Well, those panglossian remainers who were saying "move along please, nothing to see here" were wrong.


The UK has been reacting too slowly, the EU has been completely useless, yet now we see in Italy just what this virus means for real people trying to get on with their lives.


Hopefully, the UK can still escape the worst, but my fear is that that particular horse has already bolted.


I exempt Justin from criticism - he is a resident remainer who did have the foresight to see what was coming.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


How we were mocked at the time. 

There are still too many people who are saying it’s not that bad (less so on TWO these days) But fail to understand the impact on healthcare and the domino effect it causes. While younger people may not succumb like the older generation they will still be knocked off their feet. The damage to the economy and productivity is going to be significant. 


We have an ageing population, and to some degree it’s devastating the risk this virus poses. The elderly and immune compromised are still people, and it feels like they are just being dismissed. 


There is a COBRA meeting tomorrow and I suspect that it’s likely more measure will be implemented. Depending on how the next few days go, I may insist to my employer that I will take the decision to work from home for the foreseeable future. 

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Heavy Weather 2013
08 March 2020 19:39:17


 


Apologise? What for? I was telling his at the time, the time might come to take some measurements, that was clearly not in late January!


Perhaps he or others should apologise for some of the baseless bollocks.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


If some of the measures had been taken across Europe in late January perhaps we wouldn’t be in this mess now.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Ulric
08 March 2020 19:39:59


 I have stopped shaking hands about a week ago 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


In my local, there are "corona hugs" and "corona handshakes" which are gestures  made from 2ft away.

To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
doctormog
08 March 2020 19:42:00
I certainly have never been complacent as every virus is unpredictable but even more so with a novel one. Even the world’s experts would (will?) not be able to accurately predict how the situation will evolve. They are however massively more qualified to comment than we’ve are. Hindsight is a great thing. What happens in the coming months is still very much uncertain.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
xioni2
08 March 2020 19:42:11

Should I remind people of how many posters were confidently claiming that the Chinese data is dodgy? Or that this country or that one has lost control of the epidemic? Or the armchair criticism of the WHO? The right approach from the start has been and still is neither alarmism nor complacency, but informed interest/concern and planning if necessary.


Even now I am not going to change my lifestyle significantly. I will only stay at home if I get infected; as for work, I like working from home anyway and I will certainly not miss London's public transport. I am not even too bothered if I get the virus myself, but I have an elderly parent who partly relies on me and I wouldn't want to cause her death.

Joe Bloggs
08 March 2020 19:42:26


When Quantum, me and some others were warning about this looming pandemic and urging tighter travel restrictions, stopping people going to the Far East for holidays and cruises and then urging closing of borders with countries like Italy, we were scorned.


Jeered at - "isolationist brexiteers" "scaremongering". Well, those panglossian remainers who were saying "move along please, nothing to see here" were wrong.


The UK has been reacting too slowly, the EU has been completely useless, yet now we see in Italy just what this virus means for real people trying to get on with their lives.


Hopefully, the UK can still escape the worst, but my fear is that that particular horse has already bolted.


I exempt Justin from criticism - he is a resident remainer who did have the foresight to see what was coming.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


I’m not sure if you are referring to any of my posts, but I don’t regret a single one. 


The references to SE Asia did turn out to be largely inaccurate. 


As for the rest of the “I told you so” brigade - disappointing to see such a serious situation being used to wave your willies about. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Brian Gaze
08 March 2020 19:42:35


 


In my local, there are "corona hugs" and "corona handshakes" which are featured made from 2ft away.


Originally Posted by: Ulric 


If the UK government is serious about slowing the spread it should shut down pubs. Once you've had a few beers you become more forgetful about not rubbing face etc. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Roger Parsons
08 March 2020 19:43:04


 Apologise? What for? I was telling his at the time, the time might come to take some measurements, that was clearly not in late January!


Perhaps he or others should apologise for some of the baseless bollocks.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


On 27th February I posted: "If you fire into a crowd you are likely to kill someone. [The old army team was "firing promiscuous"] That does not mean you are a good shot. You hit them at random. There are correct posts on here, there must be, but we do not yet know which they are. Science is predictive, so it does not matter if it turns out you were wrong, but you can't look back and say "I knew I was right all the time!" That's why medics and biologists are cautious in their comments."


The outcome so far is much as I feared, Xioni, and it is interesting that a few posters here made convincing predictions, but it is too soon for anyone to be crowing and dancing a jig. A lot can happen yet.


Roger

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
xioni2
08 March 2020 19:44:12


 If some of the measures had been taken across Europe in late January perhaps we wouldn’t be in this mess now.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Italy was actually one of the few countries that had stopped all flights to/from China very early on. They probably got unlucky, but then they probably didn't handle it well and same for European governments (including ours). This was not in late Jan, this was just 3 weeks ago.

doctormog
08 March 2020 19:45:02


 


On 27th February I posted: "If you fire into a crowd you are likely to kill someone. [The old army team was "firing promiscuous"] That does not mean you are a good shot. You hit them at random. There are correct posts on here, there must be, but we do not yet know which they are. Science is predictive, so it does not matter if it turns out you were wrong, but you can't look back and say "I knew I was right all the time!" That's why medics and biologists are cautious in their comments."


The outcome so far is much as I feared, Xioni, and it is interesting that a few posters here made convincing predictions, but it is too soon for anyone to be crowing and dancing a jig. A lot can happen yet.


Roger


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
xioni2
08 March 2020 19:51:19


 On 27th February I posted: "If you fire into a crowd you are likely to kill someone. [The old army team was "firing promiscuous"] That does not mean you are a good shot. You hit them at random. There are correct posts on here, there must be, but we do not yet know which they are. Science is predictive, so it does not matter if it turns out you were wrong, but you can't look back and say "I knew I was right all the time!" That's why medics and biologists are cautious in their comments."


The outcome so far is much as I feared, Xioni, and it is interesting that a few posters here made convincing predictions, but it is too soon for anyone to be crowing and dancing a jig. A lot can happen yet.


Roger


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


Spot on Roger, nobody really knows what will happen in the next few months. We might get it under control and avoid any bad outcomes. We could easily get a low/fat peak in April/May and a secondary one next winter without our hospitals ever getting overwhelmed like in N.Italy or Hubei. Just look at what most Asian countries have achieved!


 

Arcus
08 March 2020 19:57:00


When Quantum, me and some others were warning about this looming pandemic and urging tighter travel restrictions, stopping people going to the Far East for holidays and cruises and then urging closing of borders with countries like Italy, we were scorned.


Jeered at - "isolationist brexiteers" "scaremongering". Well, those panglossian remainers who were saying "move along please, nothing to see here" were wrong.


The UK has been reacting too slowly, the EU has been completely useless, yet now we see in Italy just what this virus means for real people trying to get on with their lives.


Hopefully, the UK can still escape the worst, but my fear is that that particular horse has already bolted.


I exempt Justin from criticism - he is a resident remainer who did have the foresight to see what was coming.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


It's nothing to do with Brexit/Corbyn/Johnson MM - as soon as I talked to a medical professional that's a Government adviser on Monday last week I was "Right , OK. This is going to be more serious than I thought", and I posted in that vein, and I'm as far from a Brexiteer or Tory as it's possible to be.


People need to be prepared, but not panicked into rash behaviour.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
xioni2
08 March 2020 20:00:09

Going back to the Lombardy epidemic and its high number of deaths, it sounds more and more like Hubei. They run out of ICUs and they don't have enough ambulances with mechanical ventilators in order to transport the critical patients to hospitals of other areas which still have ICU capacity. It's when the epidemic is concentrated in a small and densely populated area that causes the major problems and that's why other European countries don't have a major issue yet.


Unfortunately the Italian authorities missed a lot of the early patients and they never had the chance to do proper contact tracing. The WHO keeps saying that contact tracing is absolutely critical in the early stages of the epidemic, followed by quarantine measures.


 

Polar Low
08 March 2020 20:00:39



 


It's nothing to do with Brexit/Corbyn/Johnson MM - as soon as I talked to a medical professional that's a Government adviser on Monday last week I was "Right , OK. This is going to be more serious than I thought", and I posted in that vein, and I'm as far from a Brexiteer or Tory as it's possible to be.


People need to be prepared, but not panicked into rash behaviour.


Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Brian Gaze
08 March 2020 20:03:28


Going back to the Lombardy epidemic and its high number of deaths, it sounds more and more like Hubei. They run out of ICUs and they don't have enough ambulances with mechanical ventilators in order to transport the critical patients to hospitals of other areas which still have ICU capacity. It's when the epidemic is concentrated in a small and densely populated area that causes the major problems and that's why other European countries don't have a major issue yet.


Unfortunately the Italian authorities missed a lot of the early patients and they never had the chance to do proper contact tracing. The WHO keeps saying that contact tracing is absolutely critical in the early stages of the epidemic, followed by quarantine measures.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Possible but they have been dropping like flies from the outset. I don't think the death rate has changed dramatically as the numbers increased. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
xioni2
08 March 2020 20:03:46


Going back to the Lombardy epidemic and its high number of deaths, it sounds more and more like Hubei. They run out of ICUs and they don't have enough ambulances with mechanical ventilators in order to transport the critical patients to hospitals of other areas which still have ICU capacity. It's when the epidemic is concentrated in a small and densely populated area that causes the major problems and that's why other European countries don't have a major issue yet.


Unfortunately the Italian authorities missed a lot of the early patients and they never had the chance to do proper contact tracing. The WHO keeps saying that contact tracing is absolutely critical in the early stages of the epidemic, followed by quarantine measures.


 

Originally Posted by: xioni2 


And actually the details are a bit more harrowing. Some patients die in the few minutes between transported from the hospital ICU to the ambulance ventilator. Their lungs collapse.

xioni2
08 March 2020 20:05:06


 Possible but they have been dropping like flies from the outset. I don't think the death rate has changed dramatically as the numbers increased. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Do you have a time series of their deaths? My contact in Milan is telling me that it's been about 2 weeks now that the local hospitals have been overwhelmed.


 

picturesareme
08 March 2020 20:06:10


 


Possible but they have been dropping like flies from the outset. I don't think the death rate has changed dramatically as the numbers increased. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Could altitude be playing a part?

xioni2
08 March 2020 20:07:48


 Could altitude be playing a part?


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Most people in N.Italy live at low elevations.

xioni2
08 March 2020 20:14:35


 Do you have a time series of their deaths? 


 

Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Found it, most deaths are since 1st of March. They were at 29 at the end of Feb, so the number of deaths has spiked over the last week. Since 1 March we have 31, 52, 79, 107, 148, 197, 233, 366.


https://www.corriere.it/speciale/salute/2020/mappa-coronavirus-italia/


speckledjim
08 March 2020 20:22:22


 


So I assumed you will apologising to Q as you are now doing what he outlined to some degree. A small majority were calling this correctly since the turn of the year.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


I don’t recall anyone saying that this virus would not progress as it has. The challenge has always been on how big this will get and no one has the answers to that. I challenged the 20% mortality and the 60-80% infection rate and I still believe those figures are way out. 

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Ally Pally Snowman
08 March 2020 20:27:22


 


Found it, most deaths are since 1st of March. They were at 29 at the end of Feb, so the number of deaths has spiked over the last week. Since 1 March we have 31, 52, 79, 107, 148, 197, 233, 366.


https://www.corriere.it/speciale/salute/2020/mappa-coronavirus-italia/



Originally Posted by: xioni2 


 


Once its out of control like this the measures have to be extreme like Hubei. I still dont think Italy is doing enough.


 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Polar Low
08 March 2020 20:30:34

Putting someone on a icu ventilator is something that should not and is not  taken lightly as it comes with the risk of ventilator assisted phenomena (vap) my son had this it is caused by invasion of the lower respiratory tract and lung parenchyma by microorganisms via the ventilator tube it’s a huge risk in its own right.




 


And actually the details are a bit more harrowing. Some patients die in the few minutes between transported from the hospital ICU to the ambulance ventilator. Their lungs collapse.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 

xioni2
08 March 2020 20:33:07

Here is a table and a graph of the deaths in Italy.


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