Yes 12z ECM @ 240z shows an easterly with HP to our east building towards east of Scandinavia and retrogressing westwards giving us an easterly with chance of frost and certainly drier and more seasonal weather!

GFS Op shows south westerly winds and lower pressure over eastern Scandinavia: - SO the exact opposite. 

We have been here so many times before haven't we!? - Will be interesting to see what the 00Z ECM run will show at +240z!?

On the plus side the GFS does show more of a blocked scenario over Greenland at +240z with a pressure of 1035mb in comparison with the ECM which goes for a low pressure of 995mbs. So not all doom n gloom' if you excuse the pun - high pressure over Greenland is just as good as it will help to inflate any HP over Scandinavia further down the line and won't flatten any ridge which tries to build.

So all eyes on the 00Z run and see where the high will be? Scandinavia or Greenland!? Or even better - both!?

16 dayer shows cold air well established over E Europe but not making progress this way; UK has seasonal average temps and plenty of rain esp W & S.

GFS continues to run LP on a SW-NE track just N of Scotland, with occasional closer approaches (Thu 19th, Sun 29th), wind from W/SW direction with occasional burst of N/NW as LP passes through.

GEFS in the S, wet now, mild and dry for a few days, back to near average from Fri 20th and then rain n=on and off, less than suggested by the above; Scotland gets a colder burst on the 20th (which weakens as it moves S) before rebounding and also misses the dry spell.

ECM keeps LPs further north than GFS with HP occasionally appearing in the S e.g. Tue 24th

The carrot of blocking seems to have disappeared - could be a long winter 

think it will be back, it’s winter!! Lots of carrots to come

Twas ever thus.

It is a shame that this leads to little more than a passing hint of what could be 

Still, it will feel fresher for a day. 

Despite all these  here today gone tomorrow long fetch easterlies...the long range signal for a strong Iberian High and mild conditions in run up to Christmas will surely be 1/20 ,on stuff.....looking forward to potential strat warming posts in the near future 

Neither of the two - the Azores! Both northern latitudes of Scandinavia and Greenland now replaced by a low pressure! So same old then. Let's check the temperature in stratopshere - it looks exceptionally below average up there - this isn't helping either!! 

The Northern Blocking will no doubt be back though, in time to give us another poor summer next year in this part of the world (though probably not before then).

GEFS35 is showing colder conditions in late Nov and early Dec but then it turns milder mid-month. Rapidly approaching the Xmas period.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-europe.aspx

I'd reduce the equation even further to:

The carrot of blocking seems to have disappeared - could be a long October.

Do the t2m values on those anomaly charts not show it remaining cold for much of the north throughout?

They do. 

I've gone through the coding again and again for the 2m charts. I've also tried plotting them with a) the mean 2m temp variable provided and b) the average of the 2m max and 2min variables. Both combinations generate the same output. However, I'm not happy with what is shown and think the problem is largely due to the low resolution of the reanalysis data set. That seems to lead to problems with land / sea areas. Therefore, the 850s IMO are far more useful and reliable within the context of the usual model constraints.  

Which will no doubt remain as carrots. If the ECM shows blocking past 168hrs my advice is just ignore it unless you enjoy a roller coaster of emotions that almost always end in disappointment. 

It seems to have a ridiculous bias towards high pressure at those time frames which evaporate as it draws closer. This Winter I'm done with it after 168hrs.

Some of the GEFS show signs of blocking late on , worth keeping an eye on

Bit different to the 6z ties in with some of the GEFS ( 6Z  )

I've wondered whether it has some bias towards blocking scenarios because  the project was kicked off during the Cold War and forecasting conditions across the European plain was presumably of the upmost importance. For example, the perceived threat from the Warsaw Pact may have been considered elevated during cold winters in which their troops were more accustomed to operating in. 

PS: Pure speculation and conjecture on my part! Nonetheless,  ECM does overcook easterly outbreaks in winter I am sure. 

Blocking seems the theme on the 12z

HP dominated , fog and frost , feeling seasonal .............start of a trend ?

Control keen on a HP 

Sleeping on duty this afternoon and only just noticed the CMC12z.

Well that's an interesting theory Brian. Who knows you may be right. I wonder if anyone has any stats on verification at days 7 + and I wonder if there is any difference when showing high pressure? 

Anyway I'm going to keep an eye on it this Winter and whenever ECM promises blocking in its later stages I'm going to weigh in with doom and gloom to keep a lid on expectations 

Meanwhile plenty of high pressure on offer on the GFS later stages!