From N Hem view: - Just a variation of the same theme really but times it differently, but could this be the start of a set up to a cold start to December?- This is quite a block over Northern Russia into Arctic: - Let's hope it retrogresses towards Scandinavia and Greenland.

 https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPNH12_240_1.png

It must be in with a shout IMO!

GFS moving away from the blocked scenarios and a very progressive ECM this morning - the METO forecast for a more settled end to November (having failed with the settled mid-November) now looks doubtful.

Yes, it does seem like quite a persistent theme and it will be interesting to see if it comes to fruition. Not yet in the range of ECM of course.

Not reflected by the extended EPS last night or the EC46 - essentially no break from zonality throughout.

First or only wintry precipitation here this winter? 

What do the US Forecasters think?

I've not looked at the shorter term forecasts, only that the anomaly charts don't support Northern blocking - or even mid-latitide blocking in the 14 day period, and as mentioned on the winter thread, it's a solidly flat jet, cold limited to Northern latitudes, +ve NAO winter. 

Jetstream continues strongly across UK until Sun 22nd then loops take it first N of the UK (Wed 25th) and later S of the UK (Sun 29th through to Thu 3rd) though at the end of this period it looks as if the jet has the UK in its sights again.

In view of the comments about a Scandi block, it's worth noting that the jet tries a variety of approaches, nothing consistent but suggesting the situation is finely balanced (from the S up across Baltic this week, flipping S across Balkans early next week, big loop sending the Jet across Finland N to S (sic) midweek, then a quiet period - blocked? - from Sun 29th with occasional fragments of jet across Finland again N to S while the main jet is down across S France)

GFS - well-telegraphed but short-lived blast from the N this Friday, otherwise LPs continue to run between Scotland and Iceland to Sun 22nd  (W-lies) before a semi-permanent LP sits SW of Iceland with ridge of HP from S across or just E of UK (S-lies) until Sun 29th when small LP detaches from main centre and runs SE, filling over UK. but leaving slack LP over UK/N Sea to Thu 3rd. HP sitting over far N of Scandi week beginning 29th

GEFS - after Friday's dip, a bit above normal until Fri 27th (Scotland and the NE get a second dip around the 22nd/23rd) then a bit below to Thu 3rd. Dry-ish until 27th then increasing chance of rain with some runs showing big peaks esp in S & W

ECM - minimises Fridays' blast from the N and then places the LP to stick around further E, over Iceland itself then the Faeroes Fri 27th

FAX has this week's N-ly very short-lived, Thu 18th one day only, and W-ly gales for all by Sat

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 has big penetration of cold air into Europe week 2

I have gone through the GEFS and there are plenty of blocking options in there , too many for anyone to say GFS is moving away from a blocked outcome . 

Agreed, Marcus.

I think that, as as happened so often before, some are seeing only what they want to see.

00z Control run goes for quite an easterly at end of run:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=0&time=300&lid=C00&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref

Let's see in a few days time when the ECM will pick up on this pattern as the blocking options come more into the reliable time frame, wish it went beyond the 240z! My fear is that we have been here so many times before haven't we, only to see a Scandinavian high fail!? We saw this early November one Scandinavian high were bringing us an easterly by mid November and uppers of -10c @ 850hpa but that was an outlier and never materialised - So we can only hope!!

I can't get the parallel update/run to work on wetterzentrale, so does anyone else know how to? The parallel has been stick on 26th Oct for a while now?

There is a cooling towards the end , lets see how that continues through the week 

Well even the GFS ensembles don't correlate at all with the METO extended outlook and the ECM cluster majority certainly don't.

I think we will see a backtrack from the METO as we did for their mid November outlook.

to be fair I think that’s a fair call at present, though plenty of time for things to change. I see no concrete evidence to back up the METO at the moment. 

6z run sees a return to normality with very little blocking affecting the UK.

The Atlantic fires through with an Azores/southerly based HP more in control...

This echos my earlier comment about a mobile HP Block. An unresolved position... Seemingly the block has merged deeper into the continent on this run, nulling any effect

haha yes could be many changes to come yet. Isn’t that why it’s fun

Someone will always piss on a good run saying it will never happen, then the Atlantic returns and they will sit there in their pants saying I told you so. When in reality everyone is guessing a little bit

Just as much as its wise to refrain from anything more than highlighting positives on a good run.  ITs also wise to not slit wrists at a bad run.

ITs why we refer to ensembles.

The general consensus for the past 3 days is blocking and potentially cold end to November.  But I havent seen anything desperately cold on the charts, just a general cold feel to the charts as they finish their run...  

Be that as it may, it is worth remembering that the MetO has access to more models and information than we, the general public do when forming their forecasts. Their forecasts are not based merely on the same information that we are fortunate to be able to access. That is why I personally have always refrained from second-guessing what the MetO might or might not say in later updates.