Generally the same people over and over. 

The metoffice say into the middle of December (up to15th) but the GFS ensembles only go to the 3rd! Prior to that the met outlook is rather generic with cold interludes and wintry showers to higher ground in north... all very normal for time of year.

Just looking through the GEFS , I think the real key thing for us  is the PV , its wandering around like a little lost dog and on many of them very fragmented.

All good for the UK  , I say 

There are a few here who have eyesight that qualifies them to be snipers but as a result suffer when it comes to close up views....

😉

Nicely put. 

Nothing noteworthy but the transient cold from the north has intensified very slightly on the last couple of GFS op runs. 
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_42_2.png 

Beyind then, more mobile once again. What FI will show on this run is TBC.

SO far the 12z is different again, though increasingly cooler /colder with some wintryness to scottish hills

ie - seasonal and nothing more at this stage.

wouldnt be surprised if we see a couple of undercutting LPs back in the mix - as was in the charts last week

yes I suppose it’s my fault things have flipped back to a less interesting outlook 🙄

Please re-read my post and quote anything I have written that wasn’t a sensible prognosis at the time. In fact go back further through the thread and you will see my dislike for Atlantic dominated crud. But let’s not let the truth get in the way shall  we ? 
there are many times I have disagreed with Ian brown but on this occasion I think his post that I was replying to was a fair comment. 

16-dayer showing cold air moving into central Europe but not as far or as fast as yesterday and giving the Baltic a miss (emps there still well above seasonal average) The most intense pptn week 1 is for UK &  N Norway, week 2 for UK , S Norway & France but the really dry area and by implication HP is from Italy to Romania.

GFS - brief blast from the N tomorrow, but otherwise a persistent W-ly pattern all the way through to Thu 3rd, LP to the N, HP to the S, and no sign of any lasting HP in Northern latitudes. A brief lull Mon 30th, but only end-of-run Fri 4th is there any real break when LP 980mb NI and another 955mb Atlantic looking as if it might take a S-ly track. Winter watchers should go back to sleep until official met winter starts Dec 1st!

GEFS - temps oscillate below and above norm to Fri 27th, after that a scramble of runs mostly around the norm to Fri 4th. Very little rain in the E until after 27th, better chances from then on, and although some rain in the W throughout, nothing spectacular. Inverness snow row is 32 for tomorrow but the total of ALL other days for the next fortnight is no more than that one day.

ECM - similar to GFS

Quite! Yes.

What happened to that Scandinavian HP or blocking or even settled weather the models consistently forecast!? The forecast was always for November to end on a cold and dry note only for this to look unlikely now. I also remember the forecast for the middle of November was for HP to take charge and cold weather to arrive but that never materialised either. Some really dire runs of late.  We all need a break from wind and rain don't you think!?

Different again from GFS - safe to say anything is up for grabs after the 7-10 period 

Really 

This would be cold / chilly and dry , I wouldn't take it off the table if I was you ?

Agreed - The ensembles back this up

This is about the time of year (mid Nov. onwards) where we can start to get proper cold blasts providing we get Easterlies in the first place, and assuming there's a cold pool of air over the near Continent to tap into.

It's normally air from the far North that provides cold at this time of year. A much surer bet. 

Not forgettting that an Easterly is still air from the Arctic that's just taken a longer route to get here.  The problem with easterlies is that you need a block in the right place and for longer because the air mass has to advect westwards and that's a longer process.

We have both easterlies and northerlies on the 12z GFS op. I know which I would prefer

Northerly (at 18hr): 

Easterly (at 252hr):

It is available on Meteociel for what it’s worth 

Thanks