GEFS showing plenty of blocking scenarios 

Good to see 

Enjoying the rollercoaster at this early stage, Gooner? Or feeling nauseous? 

LOL I seem to have started early 

HP over Scandi starting to build on the 18z 

JFF of course 

With the jet stream profile I’m afraid ‘JFF’ is as good as it will get until that changes.

Still about two weeks before meteorological winter starts.

GFS still the theme of LPs sliding past N Scotland with a close approach on Thu 19th; after that more HP in the mix and LPs further away than yesterday (ECM spotted that) with ridge from S keeping LPs particularly distant Sun 22nd (+/- a day) and again a week later. A weak Lp splits off and down to Iberia Tue 1st

GEFS dip in temp Fri 20th shortlived and above average for the following week (Scotland has a double dip with another low point on 23rd); then a slow decline to a little below norm by Wed 2nd but with poor agreement. Rain around from time to time esp in W but less than forecast yesterday

ECM agrees up  to ridge on Mon 23rd but then has a S=ly tracking depression to Brittany Thu 26th though it looks as if the main Atlantic flow will resume after this end-of-run

FAX has LP further S than other models

ECMENS mean to me suggests some support for blocking in late Nov and early Dec. Also fits in with some of the recent GEFS35 output.

Interesting to say the least from GFS 6z 

End of the month snow , nice to see . Lets hope for some consistency 

Same charts as above - different view

Probably the wintriest chart Ive seen - maybe this year?

GFS flexing its winter muscles

Indeed; a new winter season beckons but the usual tried and tested caveats apply: consistency, cross-model and ensemble support.  Arguably this includes the array of high resolution models and means that until we’re down to T+72 there’s still going to be some level of uncertainty.

Still, some support amongst the ensemble members for the op.

GFS 6z animation I tweeted earlier

GFS06z shows a cold easterly developing during the last week of November. (Individual charts from here https://t.co/imn97P06Nc) pic.twitter.com/KPQmgMRYYY

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) November 16, 2020

I think the trend you describe also has to appear and then disappear twice in the ensemble, and then finally reappear for the third time before it can be taken seriously. At my reckoning, this “easterly” trend has now done that (or has it?) 

Consistency at least from GFS in terms of the HP setting up 

Cold air edging ever closer 

Looks like November following the pattern of so much of this year warm first 3 weeks of the month cooler final week.

It seems that the upper high is retrogressing towards the Greenland area and potentially opening the door to the jet diving south out of the Arctic towards Scandinavia. But the key is the recurrence of the upper blocking high across recent runs.

Still a long long way to go.

Meanwhile there is the chance of some northern parts seeing a few flakes of snow or wintry showers in less than three days time.

More seasonal (and brief!) than exciting https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_72_2.png 

Excellent run from GFS