Nice example 

Just chosen at random honestly  (and filed under the “gone in six hours category”).

Jetstream running across the UK (extra strong Sat 21st) and down toward Ukraine, Pattern continues to end of run Sat 5th interrupted by a bit of looping Wed 25th and Wed 2nd which takes the main flow first northwards then south again,  more towards Italy. Less activity  towards Scandi, except when the loops  pass through.

GFS - After today, mobile W-ly Atlantic stuff with LPs passing by N Scotland and pressure remaining high well south of UK. Temporary break in pattern when an LP moves S over UK 970mb Mon 30th. Any sign of blocking HP confined to an area around the Urals

GEFS - rather different to yesterday. Temps up and down but mostly above norm to Wed 25th, as before, but then a long period with mean of runs  a degree or three below norm, and not bad agreement for that time frame. Also persistent  and significant (less in NE) rainfall from that date

ECM - similar to GFS to Thu 26th when big divergence from GFS. HP arising on Atlantic to move across UK and settle over S Sweden Sun 29th 1035mb with what looks like a very mild feed of air from the Med to UK.

We could have a very cold winter but you simply can't run away from the evidence.

As we approached December crystal clear signal of a more organised Atlantic onslaught.South hopefully at times will miss the worse nearer the High influence. Desperately disapointing the colder models will surely be downgraded.Getting a direct polar northerly right through the UK to Spain is like trying to pick axe through concrete thesedays.

Even if we do they often deliver close to average temperatures to much of southern Britain. Having said that, I think we could be looking at a "surprise" wet snow event during the next few weeks.

GFS 192 hrs 

ECM 192 hrs 

Disagreement between ECM and GFS as early as 192 -where's your money 

Nothing is ever ‘crystal clear’ in the prediction game until it’s around you and you’re breathing it (although that isn’t always clear) 😊

If the last however many decades of weather watching has taught me anything, it’s to never discount a possibility however improbable it appears.

I agree.  the charts seem to be flirting with the idea.  Will end up probably being a evaporating cooling event, as pulses of heavy rain move into cooler air.

No severe cold on the cards just yet though

Neither at the moment 😂

I don't know about 'spoiled expectations' but I've always considered any December weather, especially the second half, that isn't snowy (or merely brass monkeys with propensity for fog) to be utterly crud.

These days anything with daytime maxs in single figures seems very cold these days now.

Interesting , could we get an Easterly from this ?

saint as so often for us in December we have to guard against “spoiled expectations” turning to “soiled expectations”. 
As long as it’s not continuous vile Atlantic crud then we can put up with the meagre crumbs of frost, fog and the odd cooler day. 
So low are my expectations 🤣

I think it was both the events of December 2010 and the second half of December 2009 that both raised a lot of people's expectations wintry weather in December, perhaps unrealistically so. Although not as cold overall as December '10, December 2009 was the coldest December in Scotland for quite a while according to what I heard at the time, possibly since 1981. The Decembers of 1995 and 1996 were both fairly cold overall here too, although not as cold as '81, '09 and '10.

Nice ending to GFS , pleased with the 12z run

quite. Wintry precipitation possible in the north followed by some harsh frosts on that run.

I wonder what if ECM will support any such idea.

'Soiled expectations'... so apt!

Yes that's exactly the sort of thing I was thinking of. I'll not post any charts because it's pointless at this range but it is something to keep an eye on IMO.

Was it wet snow? or sleety stuff? What was temp in snow shower?

Haven't heard from Richard yet...?