A nice 3 week freeze then an early spring with temps in the mid to high teens would be perfection.

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 Agree 100%

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To be honest I would love that, but practically, I could swerve it this year.

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Not normal seeing this very warm and very cold while UK stuck in the middle as past easterlies the south Europe is also cold same time but this time you drive from warm weather to deep cold further north.  Despite the cold easterlies coming here the heat are still waiting to pounce so I feel that end of Feb or March and if still there would be seeing 20C early and I do hope so as it been a long time not seeing 20C since end of Sept.

The GEFS 6Z was a welcome reprise from the ever lasting and alternating roller coaster from mild wet to cold wet and back again, as the dip in the jet stream lollops around to the east and west of the UK.

Im very interested to see the ensembles for the 12z, and if the lolloping comes back or the change to a different flow remains.

There were forecasts of a strengthening jet stream to reinforce the dip by the middle of next week (bbc late night forecast) to bring in the cold from a different direction. I’m very interested to see how this plays out and if that remains too.

Not long now.

 

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Where the 6Z GEFS went for a prolonged cold spell but with more scatter, the 12Z seems a bit tighter but ends the cold sooner again. Albeit with a few cold stragglers at the end.

 

Op run is on the mild side throughout but you couldn't call it an outlier as it has quite a bit of support.

 

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Haar, haar....

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OT - it was indeed 😊😊

Crashed and burned, unlike our pending easterly hopefully.

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Operational is for sure a milder option of the 12z run compared to it's ENS members - esp in the FI range but on the plus side the 850 ENS mean is down to -7c on 8th February - which is colder than that seen on 06z - however, the cold appears to be delayed somewhat but when it turns cold after the 4th/5th it turns colder!? - Have I got this right?

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ECM not looking too clever this evening 😞

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😀😀 I will have to check it out!

ECM looks like sinker stinker

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Is it available on catch up? When was it filmed?

 

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ECM says "Game over." Might be good for Greece at 240?

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The differences at 168 between GFS & ECM 12zs are massive:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=168&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24&mv=0 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

Oops!

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GEM leads the way again. ECM follows. But hope it is just the scenic route as Rob said

 

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You could say that again 

As Ian says "the train is coming only when you can see it"

I think there will be meltdowns from the usual characters on the other channel!

 

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Wow you really can set your watch to the Met Office,  as soon as they come on board  it goes Pete Tong.

 

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Guys one run. Been up and down all week. Patience

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I'm loving this, all good drama. when the OP changes it's tune even if ensembles don't do likewise it's a warning, ECM totally different tonight. Keep smiling all, soon be Spring but many more runs to agonise over before then. is it the met office curse again ? 🤣🤣

It could be game on for cold again tomorrow,best not to take each run too seriously

👍

Indeed. It’s also not that mild a run, just not that cold at times. I am not sure there will be a large change in the ECM 12z ensemble suite (probably a halfway house between this op run and the 00z ensemble mean at a guess).

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I saw that? I guess the Daily Express will have to change their title and Met Office may have to remove the mention of easterly's. 

We merely get the -5c uppers let alone the -10c to -12c uppers that covered the whole country on this mornings 00Z run.

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Adds a bit more excitement- struggles to resolve a bit of an Arctic push is definitely not easy especially with som extreme warmth over Europe. Get this weekends boundaries of rain / snow out the way first I think. Still believe high pressure with easterlies is going to win out. Might only be a 3 day event for the south though