Yes, at a glance so far the GEFS ensembles (out to the 5th which as far as they go look a bit colder than the previous set). The mean on the 5th is -9.2°C here (t850hPa).

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Not what we wanted to see, especially in the South. Wonder where it sits amongst the rest of the suite.

#wobbles
Always happens.
Not saying it will happen though - remember cross model agreement at 120. We’re not there yet.

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Yes, spot on, the ensembles showing this as an warm end run already, all looking good looking at the other runs

Martin

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Yes, confirmed at the mild end. We have to accept that not only will we get some runs like this but also the excellent solution that is shown now is very rare, I wouldn't put it at better than 10/1 against, although no worse than evens to see something good out of it.

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The overall theme in GFS 12z op of pressure building to the North/NE in the medium term continues and it's another variation of the theme. A quick look through the ENS suggests a bit more variation on where the high pressure build is centred than the previous sets. Some have the high pressure cell closer to the North of Scotland a bit like UKMO 12z.

144z is ages away but still looking good overall. 

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The African winter plume has to be feared and respected.......

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I would take that for the earlier stages of the 12z ensembles 

The -10°C t850hPa member count for the short stage of the ensembles is a very impressive 25 here now.

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The saving grace of the GFS Op is that at least there's snow over all the eastern half of England before it turns milder. And right at the end of the run, the cold air iseems to be gathering itself to make another attempt to capture the UK.

I was struck by how much alike the UKMET and GEM models look at T+144.

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Just a prediction based on the Met Office's unfailing ability to cause the models to flip mild by issuing a cold-sounding long-ranger.

 

Actually the UKMO run looks pretty tasty at 144 hours, although GFS goes a bit Pete T.

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GFS Op is at odds with most models in the way it moves the mild air and rain so far North on Wednesday. I think it is wrong at that point so the rest of the run can't be trusted.

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The GEM has a high that is already sinking south. The UKMO looks much more robust to me despite the superficial similarity to our east.

GEM does look as if is getting to cold by the end but it certainly takes the scenic route to get there.

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This does seem to happen very often Rob.

I'm not panicking of the back of the 12z GFS. 

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Whatever happens with the easterly,  the warmth to our south is alarming and very unusual. 

 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&time=384&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref

 

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12z Op showing what some of the ens members have consistently shown for a while - stalling Atlantic LP with insufficient HP influence and milder air for the south at least, with Scotland having a better chance of colder air throughout. 

I'd be surprised if the ECM Op doesn't also deflate expectations later, simply because that was at the bottom of it's ens suite and there's enough mild options in the ens that a 'meh' op solution isn't unlikely.

As always IMO have a look at the ens for the mid term, what the clustering is like and where the Op sits in amongst that and then look for improvements in the suite as a whole over successive runs. If that happens confidence in a colder solution is greater. 

Still a long way to go yet but when you look at the 'iffy' op runs still bringing at least some snow and cold, albeit short lived for many places, that's not a bad place to be as a 'worst case scenario' although clearly if the ops continue deteriorating and gather more ens support then a little wailing about another rainbow vanishing wouldn't be too unreasonable 

 

 

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No, the GEFS look pretty solid. In fact another step colder on the mean, with the -8C isotherm well into the UK on the mean by 192 hours.

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[OT] But does anybody know if the Neil just now on "The Chase" who said he was into weather forums and storm chasing and astronomy is one of our Neils?

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Parallel dices with danger from the south but gives a decent event for the hitherto snow-starved

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Just to contrast the Op run - Isn't it just so amazing that again we get closer to reliable time frame and models are still giving everyone a headache when we should now be having more certainty?

This mornings 06z Op @ 270:

 

This evenings 12Z Op @ 264:

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I won't be complaining if I'm in t-shirts and shorts by the end of February 

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12z ENS so far has trended colder between 6th and 10th - I hope the OP is a milder outlier in FI.

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Tally how long how you been on this forum, in this pattern certainty is 12 hours ahead let alone 5 days ! The 12z op is a variation on a continuing theme and synoptically not dissimilar to the 6z. You will drive yourself crazy trying to chase consistency that far out 😊

I’ll cash that in now if you don’t mind😑

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Control at 264z - Shows pressure building to our ne and-10c uppers pushing our way:

Operational @ 264z: - South westerly winds.

So the Operational is a milder outlier or the mildest option. Para doesn't look too bad up until 9th

 

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I won't be complaining if these huge clashes between very mild and cold air lead to a mega blizzard 

 

Parallel sinks high pressure over us but looks set to open the floodgates from the northeast later in the run, I think...

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