High pressure settling into Europe would suit me fine by mid February (so long as it doesn't migrate too far south). Around the 15th is the time that nature starts to stir and wake up. Its the time when we move away from core winter. It awakens our senses to the higher sunshine in the noon sky and the returning light. Its just a couple of weeks away now and to be honest it can't come soon enough. 

My expectation is for here is a 2 or 3 day (sub -8c 850Hpa easterly) before a drying pattern and hopefully some lighter and brighter days as we move rapidly towards Spring. 

 

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TBF that required record low thicknesses for the time of year, i.e. a record cold airmass. This is the 12z GFS T+6 chart on the 28th Feb that year:

Get -15C 850s at any time of year and you'll get ice days and powder snow. It's just that that late in the year - it's almost unknown.

Of course, there have been a smattering of GEFS members showing -15C 850s over the past few days. It's a slim chance, but we know what would happen if it were to come off.

(-10C is, of course, what I look for in terms of non-marginal snow, hence the ensemble watch. The 6z GEFS, incidentally, also has 23 runs below -10C at some point for London, with one below -15C.)

This is as close as we get to that on the 6z output, pert 3 on the GEFS.

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I'm not suggesting it's impossible! However, I see people beating themselves up about things like QBO, SSW, MJO etc and completely overlooking the very basics*. It goes without saying that if background temperatures are higher, heights to the south are higher and all other things are equal, then the chance of a very cold outbreak in the UK is reduced. At the moment that is being felt in the southern half of the UK. I don't make predictions about what things will be like in 20 years time, but the current reality can't be ignored when making a forecast. Some of the synoptics this winter have been stunning, but in the south they simply haven't delivered. 

*could be wrong but I believe even the Met factor in recent climatology in their seasonal output

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That's cheered me up now. 

By mid-February I used to notice how effective the solar input was with tomato greenhouse heating. Whenever the noon sun was out by then, I was absolutely sweating cobs under glass as I get to see the first actual turning of tomatoes of the season.

I'm eager to see the end of this so-called "deep winter" (more like an extension of Autumn, really) and the latest runs fills me with hope. But until then, there's still a good week or so of cold damp windy muck to get through first.

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I think the events of 2008 -2018 made it a good  decade. But here, in a historically reasonably snowy area, not much real depth of snow, no deep drifting snow and not that long lasting but the best 10 years in a 30 year span i agree. But either side of that was dire. You could easily beat those in terms of snow depth every decade in the previous 30 years, 1960-1990. You didn't go several years without a snow flake to be seen in between the good years either. That's the problem.

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ICON is an improvement next weekend with robust link to the AH. Interestingly the spit of energy around Iceland helps to reinforce the low crossing the Atlantic and if it ran post 180 we’d probably see the low cutting under the Scriceland high

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Notice there been very lacking of big HP over us this winter and never lasted more than few days compare to 1-2 weeks of dry weather any time of the winter even in zonal spells get HP in between.  With the charts showing extreme warmth further south I do hope that will come here after Feb to give us early warmth and prolonged dryness follow by hot dry summer to dry out completely.  1995 done that before.

Looking at today's output so far the GEM shows what happens if the cards fall right, GFS 6Z worst case scenario late on and ECM some kind of half way house. The 240 chart there at least has the high well formed to the NE with the chance of warm S or SE winds to blow it up and no lurking shortwaves (IIRC)  

To add my twopennorth to the long term factors at work, as well as extra Atlantic energy that bloating HP to the South makes it incrementally harder over time to get lows to undercut any block in a favourable position - leaving it more vulnerable to collapse and less able to retrogress. Also for cold air to be in place before systems advancing from S or SW. 

On a more positive note, very extreme -NAO patterns like 2009 2010 and 2013 still seem to be able to eradicate the execrable thing-at least temporarily. 

Now for the 12Z runs

 

Lovely run so far from GFS decent position of Scandi high cold incoming

I’m liking this run ALOT more on GFS. Already a better feed into the SE

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I'm very happy with the GFS 12z. Although its into FI it is very nice to see -10's reaching the SE at 180 rather than 240.

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Yep, -10C uppers on Saturday toward Midlands so it all looking good a bit further south so south UK should join it.

You might get a few flakes from that Steve! 😀

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This is excellent for the SE contingent.

Bitter strong easterly winds.

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_192_2.png

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12z's ok so far .................excellent Met update too , best of the Winter , they are clearly seeing a cold Feb 

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Yes nice prolonged easterly on the GFS. Looks like it would produce significant snow showers in the SE 

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Are people enjoying the rollercoaster ride? It will be interesting how mild the further reaches of the 12z GFS op get based on the last couple of runs.

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I have missed the term streamers apart from the rain ones we have had this winter. Looking good

-12C uppers here so expecting -3 to -2C day time on Sunday and -1 on Saturday.  

Milder uppers soon creep into the SE thanks to that southeasterly bend to the isobars. Most in the SE would have seen some snow by then though.

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will be a cold SE though - the uppers will not be as significant 

Yes the SE could do well IF the latest GFS 12z comes to fruition. I would expect it to be dry and cold down here in the SW however.

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The key as ever is keeping that Azores high out the way. Looks like a full house of 12zs ops are managing it so far. ECM to come on board I wonder?

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The GEM is also living up to its name for some on its op run this evening,

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White out conditions for a time s/e England around 190 becoming very hazardous for a time 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations/198h.htm