theweatheroutlook

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
23 June 2023 07:05:15
WX temp charts indicate a pleasant enough spell in week 1 with temps a little above average for W Europe as a whole (locally cooler for N Scotland and the Norwegian coast) but in week 2 something cooler from the Atlantic reaching as far as France and S Germany while the real heat piles up E of Poland. Rain in week 1 in a broad band from the Atlantic across Britain and SE-wards to the borders of Ukraine; in week 2 shifting to cover an area from France and Britain up to Finland, and quite heavy in places within this area.

GFS Op - begins with the common pattern of HP over France and LP over Iceland with S/SW-ly winds for Britain, but soon breaks down to a scenario dominated by LP moving in from the Atlantic; a modest trough (Mon 26th, 1010 mb N Sea) followed by more focused LPs (Thu 29th, 985mb Faeroes moving to Denmark by Sat 1st, Wed 5th 985mb SW Ireland moving NE across Britain). The last frames revert to zonal weather with W-lies for Britain by Sun 9th. The continent is on the edge of this Atlantic invasion, which misses Spain entirely but eventually piles up HP E of Poland as suggested above.

ECM - similar pattern to GFS though the LP on Sat 1st is still hanging around over Scotland and slowly drifting away NE-wards rather than SE-wards

GEFS - warm and dry esp in SE to Sun 26th, then the usual scatter of ens members around the mean temp which remains close to seasonal norm throughout. Small amounts of rain from time to time in the S and SW, rather more further N and esp heavy at times in the NW.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
Jiries
23 June 2023 09:52:34

Well the output all round this morning is poor. No escaping a week or two of unsettled conditions by the look of it.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



In the 90s to early 2000s yes no problem but nowadays is extremely dangerous situation when unwelcome Low enter is here to stay minimum 6 weeks to 2 months duration or more like recent unsettled March lasted to early June.  If this going to happen it might last to Sept or late August which i am very hoping not.   This settled spell had been very short only barely nearly 3 weeks long.
fairweather
23 June 2023 10:08:42
We have had a very good late Spring/early Summer so far if you like it warm, sunny depending on where you are and dry. We did manage a surprise 10 minute downpour yesterday evening which topped up the water butt but the ground is already bone dry again. Need a day of steady rain really, or preferably at night. Not looking likely in the S.E despite the talk of it becoming unsettled. NW'lies generally quite pleasant here in the summer.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
23 June 2023 10:22:45

We have had a very good late Spring/early Summer so far if you like it warm, sunny depending on where you are and dry. We did manage a surprise 10 minute downpour yesterday evening which topped up the water butt but the ground is already bone dry again. Need a day of steady rain really, or preferably at night. Not looking likely in the S.E despite the talk of it becoming unsettled. NW'lies generally quite pleasant here in the summer.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



Yes the ECM 0z which on the face of it looked awful still had highs of 23c/24c, when taking into account its underestimating, in the SE and EA. At days 8 and 9.

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Downpour
23 June 2023 10:29:21

We have had a very good late Spring/early Summer so far if you like it warm, sunny depending on where you are and dry. We did manage a surprise 10 minute downpour yesterday evening which topped up the water butt but the ground is already bone dry again. Need a day of steady rain really, or preferably at night. Not looking likely in the S.E despite the talk of it becoming unsettled. NW'lies generally quite pleasant here in the summer.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



Indeed. Same in winter, cold nor’westers usually deliver sod all. If the fronts don’t decay over the midlands plain they usually expire over the Chiltern Hills, leaving zero snow for London, Essex, Sussex and Kent. I usually lose interest rapidly in such set ups. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Taylor1740
23 June 2023 10:33:37

Well the output all round this morning is poor. No escaping a week or two of unsettled conditions by the look of it.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


yes I expect it will just be a week or two though and then back to hot and dry going by how recent Summers have been and the general pattern we seem to be in.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Ally Pally Snowman
23 June 2023 10:38:21

yes I expect it will just be a week or two though and then back to hot and dry going by how recent Summers have been and the general pattern we seem to be in.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



This morning's ECM had high pressure reasserting itself over the UK by day 15. Still along way out but we live in hope.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
23 June 2023 11:39:23

This morning's ECM had high pressure reasserting itself over the UK by day 15. Still along way out but we live in hope.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I really don't think it will be as bad as some are intimating.
Yes, it looks nailed on that we are in for an unsettled and cooler spell, perhaps for a week or so, but unlike the hellish Summers of 2007, 2012 etc, the Azores High does appear to be quite ridgy in nature this year and I remain optimistic that after a shortish spell of cool and wet, things will recover.

We can't expect 3 months solid of wall to wall sunshine and temps in the 80s after all is said and done.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
23 June 2023 12:02:30

I really don't think it will be as bad as some are intimating.
Yes, it looks nailed on that we are in for an unsettled and cooler spell, perhaps for a week or so, but unlike the hellish Summers of 2007, 2012 etc, the Azores High does appear to be quite ridgy in nature this year and I remain optimistic that after a shortish spell of cool and wet, things will recover.

We can't expect 3 months solid of wall to wall sunshine and temps in the 80s after all is said and done.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



You need to write off the rest of Summer that normally helps 😁

I think it might be a bit of a longer unsettled spell as the low pressure looks significant when it moves in . 2 or 3 weeks maybe.  Hope I'm wrong. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Joe Bloggs
23 June 2023 12:09:50
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_150_1.png 

Yes this is about as bad as it gets for our part of the world. YUCK! 

The SE should fair a lot better .

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
moomin75
23 June 2023 12:40:41

You need to write off the rest of Summer that normally helps 😁

I think it might be a bit of a longer unsettled spell as the low pressure looks significant when it moves in . 2 or 3 weeks maybe.  Hope I'm wrong. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


😂😂 Sorry, but on this occasion, I can't bring myself to write the summer off...
I honestly think things will look a good deal better next week. A spell of 7-10 days perhaps, but improving later.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
23 June 2023 13:07:34

😂😂 Sorry, but on this occasion, I can't bring myself to write the summer off...
I honestly think things will look a good deal better next week. A spell of 7-10 days perhaps, but improving later.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



Based on the idea that what you predict is often the opposite of what eventually happens, plus the Solway observation in another post, I'm not optimistic for my visit in a weeks time to that part of the UK. ⛈
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
Ghosts1
23 June 2023 13:08:34
The ECM regimes have blocking returning by mid July, the ECM extended range also shows high pressure again building across the UK after the 1st week in July, Hovmoller forecasts are also showing this. It might not happen but there are signals there of the weather recovering after the 1st week in July.
moomin75
23 June 2023 18:37:18
A vastly improved ECM 12Z at least for the early to middle part of next week.
I think that we won't end up anywhere near as cool and unsettled as first thought.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
+2
Ally Pally Snowman
24 June 2023 06:59:16
Another optimistic ECM this morning.  With the low pressure staying between Iceland and Scotland.  Southern England in particular stays mainly fine.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
24 June 2023 07:09:50
NOTE; I'm away for the next week and will not be posting here until Mon 3rd. Anyone and everyone else is welcome to post and fill any perceived gap.

WX temps; week 1, comfortably warm across NW Europe, above average in the SW, below in the east and cool (though not unusually so) in N Scotland and Norway. Week 2, cooler for NW Europe incl Britain and very much so for Scandinavia, Russia warming up and quite hot along the Med to the Black Sea. For rainfall, a broad area of not-too-intense rain from Britain across the Baltic to W Russia in week 1, but in week 2 rain is more general and heavier for all of W Europe.

GFS Op; current HP weakening and gradually allowing a trough to cross Britain, cleared away by Tue 27th, then a brief spell of W-lies under the control of LP near Iceland deepening to 975mb Wed 28th. This LP moves SE-wards to Scotland 995mb Sat 1st and then develops into a trough from Norway to Cornwall before retreating NE-wards Thu 6th. A short rise of pressure, but a shallow LP is back from the NW to 1005mb E Anglia Sun 9th

ECM; agrees with GFS to Wed 28th, but the LP then fills while staying near the Faeroes, and sending NW-lies across Britain at least to Tue 4th.

GEFS; in the S/SW, current warmth soon disappearing, and the temps (with not much spread of ens members) bump along close to or a little below average. Good chance of rain for a few days around Sun 2nd, very little before that and not much after. Elsewhere temp profile similar but rain is persistent and moderate amounts are forecast for most days, heaviest in the N.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
Hungry Tiger
24 June 2023 12:08:44
Don't forget that sst off the west coast are 4C above normal. No way can we get chilly and awful weather from that. 🙂 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Gusty
24 June 2023 12:43:46
A more traditional pattern emerging for a while. It will probably take until Thursday to get some rain to the far SE. Temperatures will probably still be maxing at 23-24c down here until then. 

Longer term its looking like more of a SW/NE split. Higher pressure to the SW bringing in a more WNW'ly flow. Cooler temperatures, risk of showers, increased cloudiness. 



 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Jiries
24 June 2023 15:18:08

Don't forget that sst off the west coast are 4C above normal. No way can we get chilly and awful weather from that. 🙂 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 



Aggressive cloud cover can cap those temperatures like today touted warm and sunny weather failed, mostly cloudy and cooler than forecasted.  
Tim A
24 June 2023 16:53:33

Don't forget that sst off the west coast are 4C above normal. No way can we get chilly and awful weather from that. 🙂 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 



 I wouldn't underestimate the misery that a low pressure system and strong westerly winds can inflict on the Northern parts of the country especially away from the most sheltered eastern parts. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Saint Snow
24 June 2023 18:32:11

I wouldn't underestimate the misery that a low pressure system and strong westerly winds can inflict on the Northern parts of the country especially away from the most sheltered eastern parts. 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 



👍

I'm very focused on this weekend. GFS and GEM both push the low further south over more of the UK, whereas ECM keeps it further north (and moves it further east) and MetOffice fills the low a little to weaken it. 

Looking at what drives the difference, both GFS and GEM ridge a 'Siberian' high over Svalbard and toward Greenland. This drives the low underneath it on a more southerly trajectory. MetOffice hadn't really bought into this until today, and the 12z brings it more in line with GFS/GEM in that respect. Not good, but it does continue to show the low slacker. ECM is digging it's heels in, though, making much less of the high to our north and do keeping the ridging AH influence over much more of the UK. 

Here's hoping ECM is correct. 

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Charmhills
24 June 2023 19:04:47
The models still have a changeable look to them but maybe a little more settled the further SE you go??
Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Ally Pally Snowman
24 June 2023 19:35:15
Yes ECM is not to bad for the SE again .  But it's not great for anywhere else. Looks like 4 or 5 more decent days here at least then unsettled. Would be nice if the models start showing a way out of the unsettled spell soon but at the moment it not there.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Hungry Tiger
25 June 2023 08:16:47

Yes ECM is not to bad for the SE again .  But it's not great for anywhere else. Looks like 4 or 5 more decent days here at least then unsettled. Would be nice if the models start showing a way out of the unsettled spell soon but at the moment it not there.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I was wondering about that. I was just hoping that this was a 10 day blip and then the nice stuff comes back.
 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Retron
25 June 2023 08:21:44

I was wondering about that. I was just hoping that this was a 10 day blip and then the nice stuff comes back.
 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


The nice stuff only lasted a couple of days, then it was back to hot (or very hot) and sunny and dry.

The upcoming nice stuff keeps getting watered down, unsurprisingly, with perhaps some rain on Thursday now. I won't be holding my breath, as the 95% sun and drought summer continues unabated!

That is, of course, for my little corner of England. Further north it does look like becoming more seasonable for a time.
Leysdown, north Kent

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