WX temps start in week 1 with a modest advance of milder weather N-wards from the Mediterranean, up to the line of the Alps, but in week 2 this switches to an advance from the SE, the Danube basin and Ukraine warm, milder weather reaching the eastern Baltic, but Britain and NW Europe remaining cool, indeed below norm for the time of year. Rain generally over continental Europe in week 1, Britain except N Scotland dry; in week 2 rain returns to Britain along with France and N Sea countries, dry in E Europe.
GFS Op - LP near Iceland runs past NE Scotland into the N Sea Mon/Tue while the HP over France moves first into the Atlantic and then back over Britain 1020mb Sat 20th. LP over Scandinavia then deepens, extends a trough across Britain which then deepens into distinct LP 985mb S Ireland Wed 24th. This fills and moves north with HP arriving rather uncertainly from the south by Sun 28th.
ECM - similar to GFS until Sat 20th but then the HP intensifies; instead of LP and a trough from Scandinavia there is HP and a ridge up to 1030mb over Britain Tue 23rd (end of run). Could scarcely be more different! Any LP is banished to Poland.
GEFS - temps dropping to cool Sunday, staying there to Fri 19th, then a few days when the temp is back to norm all with good ens agreement. From Tue 23rd in the S, a day or two earlier in the N, the mean with the majority of ens members drops to and stays at 2 or 3C below norm (op & control amongst the coldest runs). Not very much rain, some in the near future in Scotland, generally increasing a little after 23rd.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl