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Saint Snow
17 April 2024 13:50:00

This New Scientist piece might be of interest to posters on this Model; Output Thread. Hope I'm right. Id not, feel free to move it. 🙂
"Traditional economics makes ludicrous assumptions and poor predictions. Now an alternative approach using big data and psychological insights is proving far more accurate... Economics is often lambasted for being a pseudoscience, with dense mathematical formulae that belie its subjectivity and a poor track record of making accurate predictions. J. Doyne Farmer thinks we can do better. In his new book, Making Sense of Chaos, he unpicks why standard economic approaches often fail – and presents a radical alternative. Complexity economics, as it is called, treats economies as systems akin to natural ecosystems or Earth’s climate. Giant computer simulations based on these ideas offer a better representation of how billions of people interact within the global economy
The man reinventing economics with chaos theory and complexity science
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg26234870-200-the-man-reinventing-economics-with-chaos-theory-and-complexity-science/ 

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 




Even though we may not think it, weather is far less chaotic than is commonly considered. A butterfly flapping its wings will not change the course of any weather system... indeed it would take massive inputs to change course of the weather.

Weather faithfully follows the laws of physics. The only reason we cannot interpret current situations to accurately predict the progression of any synoptic situation is that there are literally too many contributory factors - from every corner of the globe - that dictate how any set-up will then progress. With enough data inputs, it would be possible to accurately predict the weather from weeks out. 

It's near-impossible, though, to have sufficient data inputs, for two main reasons. One is the sheer scale of the number of inputs, and from around the world; the second (bigger) problem is that we have nowhere near the scale of historical records of how the weather reacts to different inputs (because there are simply too many variables, and you'd need millions of years of historical data)

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
Roger Parsons
17 April 2024 14:08:00

Even though we may not think it, weather is far less chaotic than is commonly considered. A butterfly flapping its wings will not change the course of any weather system... indeed it would take massive inputs to change course of the weather.

Weather faithfully follows the laws of physics. The only reason we cannot interpret current situations to accurately predict the progression of any synoptic situation is that there are literally too many contributory factors - from every corner of the globe - that dictate how any set-up will then progress. With enough data inputs, it would be possible to accurately predict the weather from weeks out. 

It's near-impossible, though, to have sufficient data inputs, for two main reasons. One is the sheer scale of the number of inputs, and from around the world; the second (bigger) problem is that we have nowhere near the scale of historical records of how the weather reacts to different inputs (because there are simply too many variables, and you'd need millions of years of historical data)

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I think everyone on the thread will concur, Saint - but the interesting point is those very areas of difficulty can inform other models in other disciplines. For example, the preview to the book mentions "climate change" rather than "weather".
"In Making Sense of Chaos one of INET Oxford's most influential scientists, J. Doyne Farmer, tackles these questions and more. Introducing the new field of complexity economics, he describes how rebellious economists and other scientists are revolutionising our ability to predict the economy, developing new approaches to global problems – like climate change, inequality, and the devastating impact of financial crises, which hit the poorest hardest."
https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/making-sense-of-chaos-a-better-economics-for-a-better-world 
 
 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Saint Snow
17 April 2024 14:22:37

I think everyone on the thread will concur, Saint - but the interesting point is those very areas of difficulty can inform other models in other disciplines. For example, the preview to the book mentions "climate change" rather than "weather".
"In Making Sense of Chaos one of INET Oxford's most influential scientists, J. Doyne Farmer, tackles these questions and more. Introducing the new field of complexity economics, he describes how rebellious economists and other scientists are revolutionising our ability to predict the economy, developing new approaches to global problems – like climate change, inequality, and the devastating impact of financial crises, which hit the poorest hardest."
https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/making-sense-of-chaos-a-better-economics-for-a-better-world 
 
 

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 




Sorry, I meant to add a bit more to tie my post back your yours 😬

I was going to say that economic modelling based on computer simulations is pretty pointless, given the way that even relatively small actors on the global stage can have major impacts on the economic trajectory.

Look at the economic chaos that has ensued from Putin's invasion of Ukraine, with that massive inflationary spike. On a smaller scale, the Houthis targeting shipping in the Red Sea.

The global economic course can be heavily deviated by the actions of one state, in a way that weather cannot be.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Roger Parsons
17 April 2024 14:31:58

Sorry, I meant to add a bit more to tie my post back your yours 😬

I was going to say that economic modelling based on computer simulations is pretty pointless, given the way that even relatively small actors on the global stage can have major impacts on the economic trajectory.

Look at the economic chaos that has ensued from Putin's invasion of Ukraine, with that massive inflationary spike. On a smaller scale, the Houthis targeting shipping in the Red Sea.

The global economic course can be heavily deviated by the actions of one state, in a way that weather cannot be.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I'm not going to spend £25ish on Amazon for his forthcoming book, Saint - that's a bottle of Scotch! 😁 I'll wait for the price to drop - then I may have something more useful to add. I was intrigued that he is reported to have transferable cross-disciplinary examples. My economics is a bit limited - agricultural mostly - so I'll wait to see what he has to say.
 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
18 April 2024 07:11:13



The global economic course can be heavily deviated by the actions of one state, in a way that weather cannot be.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



I'd be interested to know if anyone has investigated the effect of a major war - and counting Ukraine as such - on the weather locally or regionally. Probably less CO2 as normal industrial production is reduced but a great deal of extra nitrogen oxides from detonation of explosives, even possible effects with extra aircraft generating emissions at higher levels in the atmosphere, and associated contrails.

Maybe yes, maybe no, but more than a flap of a butterfly's wings. 
 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
johncs2016
18 April 2024 07:21:11

I'd be interested to know if anyone has investigated the effect of a major war - and counting Ukraine as such - on the weather locally or regionally. Probably less CO2 as normal industrial production is reduced but a great deal of extra nitrogen oxides from detonation of explosives, even possible effects with extra aircraft generating emissions at higher levels in the atmosphere, and associated contrails.

Maybe yes, maybe no, but more than a flap of a butterfly's wings. 
 

Originally Posted by: DEW 



If the situation ever escalated to a full scale nuclear war of course, that would probably certainly have a massive effect on our weather although I doubt that any of us would actually be around afterwards to be able to see that, let alone record or investigate that.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
18 April 2024 07:38:20
WX temp prediction show a painfully slow process of getting milder, not exactly warmer, over the next two weeks. Today confirms yesterday's charts, warmer around the Med and Black Sea, less cold in N Scandinavia, Europe just a bit milder, Britain little changed. The pattern of rain in week 1 is similar to yesterday - mostly over Germany, N Italy and eastwards - but a change for week 2 with the rain band shown yesterday having moved N-wards to affect Britain, down through France and across to the Balkans.

GFS Op - HP creeping in slowly from the west and in place by Saturday suppressing the N-lies plaguing the E coast. It doesn't stay, moving up to Iceland by Tue 23rd while pressure drops over W Europe and winds freshening from the NE esp for S England. The LP over Europe deepens and gets closer 995mb East Anglia Sat 27th so NE-lies become more general, the LP slowly filling and winds moderating over the following week. Not until Sat 4th does the HP build back properly from Iceland to cover Britain implying calm and sunny weather.

ECM - begins to differ from GFS after Tue 23rd as the HP moves W, not N, and settles in mid Atlantic allowing LP to run S-wards from Iceland to East Anglia 1000mb Sat/Sun 27th/28th implying less settled weather for Britain as a whole, not just England.

GEFS - briefly near norm then cold for several days from Sun 21st (deferred in Scotland until Wed 24th) with temps 5-7C below norm, only slowly recovering to norm by Wed 1st with quite good ens agreement throughout. Dry at first, more rain in various ens members from Sat 27th

 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
18 April 2024 07:39:22

If the situation ever escalated to a full scale nuclear war of course, that would probably certainly have a massive effect on our weather although I doubt that any of us would actually be around afterwards to be able to see that, let alone record or investigate that.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 



Indeed , but what if short of the full nuclear option?
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
18 April 2024 07:39:23

If the situation ever escalated to a full scale nuclear war of course, that would probably certainly have a massive effect on our weather although I doubt that any of us would actually be around afterwards to be able to see that, let alone record or investigate that.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 



Indeed , but what if short of the full nuclear option?
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
johncs2016
18 April 2024 07:50:36

Indeed , but what if short of the full nuclear option?

Originally Posted by: DEW 



I would imagine that there would still be quite a massive effect on our weather anyway which would increase the further up the scale with that particular war which we went.

Of course, wars are something which no sensible human being wants to see and the sensible ones amongst us would certainly not want to be seeing any major wars but this is something which does sadly happen and it would certainly be worth investigating the effect of that on our weather if we are able to do so.

The most recent examples of major wars which were fought in the past which I can think of are the two world wars which were fought during the first half of the 20th century.

I'm sure that there are probably some climatological records which give some form of indication of what our weather was like during those wars and so it would interesting to see whether or not it would be possible from that to predict what the weather might have been like had we living in more peaceful times back than and then comparing that with what the weather was actually like back then.

That would at least give us a fair idea of what the effect of a major war on our weather might be like.

 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
18 April 2024 08:35:30

And oh look, several days of north easterlies for this SE quarter as high pressure park itself at the wrong place. Always seem to happen at this time of the year every time. Looks like several days of suppressed temperatures at this end, just have to hope it ends up being bright and dry with not too much in the way of North Sea gunk coming our way. Seems SW England, Ireland and W Scotland may be best. 

Originally Posted by: idj20 


My heart sank when the prospect of another spell of NE winds appeared in the MO a few days ago. I'm hoping that it won't be as bad as last year when we had six weeks of unbroken relentless blustery cold NE winds day and night with heavy low cloud, while the NW highlands of Scotland basked in blue skies and warm sunshine. At least this time it only looks like lasting for a couple of weeks.
Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
+1
Matty H
18 April 2024 09:29:40

Succinct version:

Garbage

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



And remains garbage. Any hopes of a prolonged settled spell appear to have been wiped away. A few days of drier cool weather, then back to unsettled 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Retron
18 April 2024 10:16:53

My heart sank when the prospect of another spell of NE winds appeared in the MO a few days ago. I'm hoping that it won't be as bad as last year when we had six weeks of unbroken relentless blustery cold NE winds day and night with heavy low cloud, while the NW highlands of Scotland basked in blue skies and warm sunshine. At least this time it only looks like lasting for a couple of weeks.

Originally Posted by: AJ* 


I've been keeping quiet, but it does look like we're going to see the holy grail of a decently long colder-than-average spell down here. Very unusual of course at any time of year, but cold and dry is even more unusual at this time of year.

It's been very pleasant indeed the past couple of days, and will doubtless remain so: a refreshing breeze, plenty of sunshine and just the odd bit of rain. I expect to see plenty of red lobsters out and about this weekend. (As the UV index remains around 5, but for whatever reason people seem to think if it feels a bit nippy then the sun is completely harmless. More fool them!)
Leysdown, north Kent
Jiries
18 April 2024 19:15:38

And remains garbage. Any hopes of a prolonged settled spell appear to have been wiped away. A few days of drier cool weather, then back to unsettled 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



This week failed to be settled down as HP supposed to be in today onward after a sunny start then again rain this afternoon totally not expected from no where.   I rather have the once in a life time severe storm in here like UAE then knowing it back to settled sunny business asap.  
White Meadows
19 April 2024 05:26:12
Met office headline from a couple of days ago ‘Finally good news for everyone’ themed article was a nice surprise, but in reality just a drier break from the endless November with below average temperatures, lots of cloud and biting winds before yet more soakings to follow next week. 
At least last years spring north easterly was dry. 
We’re probably looking at well into the first half of May before recording 20 degrees on the south coast. Just astonishing really in these ‘modern times’.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 



 
Ally Pally Snowman
19 April 2024 06:51:05
Well the much heralded cold (since late January) has arrived.  Hopefully the start of May will see a warm up.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
19 April 2024 07:26:33

Well the much heralded cold (since late January) has arrived.  Hopefully the start of May will see a warm up.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



With strong NE winds we should expect lot of sunny weather after early cloudy starts despite the cold temps.  That very low for London for last 3rd of April.   I am sure the METO will still come up claiming that so called false above average CET for April.   This month for sure is extreme below averasge even for London according to the ensembles set.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
19 April 2024 07:38:29
WX temp summary keeps the cool/cold weather over W Europe generally for week 1. For week 2 something much warmer moves in from the Black Sea to the Danube Basin and Poland, shrinking the freezing area further north but having little effect on western areas including Britain, France and Spain. Rain matching the temp pattern, week 1 generally from Germany and the Alps eastwards, in week 2 over the named Atlantic countries. 

GFS Op - HP moving to be centred over Britain for the weekend and staying close until Wed 24th though N-lies for N Sea coasts. Then a general fall of pressure over the NE Atlantic resolving into shallow LP (1005mb) traversing the British Isles from the Hebrides Sat 27th and on to Spain Tue 30th. Then another shallow LP following the same sort of track though further W, from Iceland Tue 30th past Ireland to Portugal Thu 2nd. Pressure than rises from the SW and NE to place Britain under a strong ridge 1020mb Sun 5th - perhaps still some NE-lies for N Sea coasts.

ECM - similar to GFS but the first of the LPs tracking N to S does so west of Ireland rather than over C Britain so winds from more of  a S-ly (warmer?) point.

GEFS - becoming cold, 7 or 8C below norm in the S on Tue 23rd but dry until then; slow improvement in temp regaining norm by Wed 1st and during this period small but frequent amounts of rainfall. Good ens agreement for an unusually long time. Scotland and far N of England have a brief milder period around the 23rd with a little rain before the cooler period begins; then as the temp slowly rises, a few dry days before some ens members show heavy falls of rain though most remain dry. ECM ensembles similar
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
19 April 2024 08:09:19

WX temp summary keeps the cool/cold weather over W Europe generally for week 1. For week 2 something much warmer moves in from the Black Sea to the Danube Basin and Poland, shrinking the freezing area further north but having little effect on western areas including Britain, France and Spain. Rain matching the temp pattern, week 1 generally from Germany and the Alps eastwards, in week 2 over the named Atlantic countries. 

Originally Posted by: DEW 



Not often these days that you get blue temperature anomalies across almost the whole of Europe 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Ally Pally Snowman
19 April 2024 08:27:26

With strong NE winds we should expect lot of sunny weather after early cloudy starts despite the cold temps.  That very low for London for last 3rd of April.   I am sure the METO will still come up claiming that so called false above average CET for April.   This month for sure is extreme below averasge even for London according to the ensembles set.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



I'm hoping we get the crap weather out the way now and a glorious summer awaits, but we know it doesn't work like that.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
White Meadows
20 April 2024 06:14:06
Well, the Euro-cooling in full swing this morning. This below av. spell set for the foreseeable. 

Looks like we might only scrape a 15c max first week of May ..and that’s the south east!!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=202&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
20 April 2024 06:46:19
Indeed, no sign for now of days of Jiriean splendour when sheds reach 45C and it's pleasant sitting out in the garden at the end of the day. Without a jacket or thick fleece.
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
20 April 2024 07:09:42
Poor output for warm weather fans that's for sure. Had to put the heating on this morning first time in 6 weeks.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
20 April 2024 07:45:42
WX temps - there was a brief flicker of hope last night when the evening charts showed mild weather spreading into Europe from the east. But this morning, it's back to square one, the whole of Europe bar the Russian edge under the blue negative anomaly in week 1 (a rare event as GezM pointed out), and as much as 10C below in S Germany. There's very little improvement in week 2, just something a bit milder creeping in to Romania and Poland. Rain in week 1 from Balkans to Baltic, and quite general across Europe in week 2 with the heaviest over the Alps. Combined with the temp prediction, there could be disruptive snow there at not very high levels.
(EDIT - GEFS for Zermatt, 1600m asl, for May 1st, many runs showing 10-25 mm rain or snow equivalent, temp 0-3C
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs-charts-selected.aspx?loc=5-Seenweg,%203920%20Zermatt,%20Switzerland&lat_5=46&lon_5=8 )

GFS Op - current HP only stays for the weekend, moving to Iceland Tue 23rd and then to mid Atlantic. This allows LP first over the Baltic, but by Tue 30th over Germany to bring cold air across Britain on light but persistent NE-lies. On Thu 2nd LP develops near Iceland, to cover Britain 1000mb on the Friday, and then to France with colder and stronger NE-lies for England - just a hint of something better for NW Scotland.

JET - making pretty loops over the N Atlantic but the only coherent stream is over the Sahara from Thu 25th, becoming quite strong as it drifts N-wards and lies along the N African coast. That pattern must also be rare.

ECM - slower by a day or two to bring in NE-lies, but then the advent of cold air generates separate  LP over SW Britain 995mb Sat 27th moving north to  the Irish Sea Tue 30th while (unlike GFS) pressure rises over Germany.

GEFS - cool/cold say 7 or 8C below norm from now for England, but Scotland gets a couple of milder days first,  rising steadily to norm by Thu 2nd after which mean stays near norm but with less ens agreement. Rain from Sat 27th likely to be noticeable for a few days, smaller amounts after Thu 2nd in the S but persisting in Scotland
 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
BJBlake
  • BJBlake
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
20 April 2024 08:13:40

Poor output for warm weather fans that's for sure. Had to put the heating on this morning first time in 6 weeks.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Yes me too. Perfect set up for January - but as seems to be the way of things these days, January sees a roaring Atlantic influence and the Arctic plunges happen when we want spring warmth.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
+2

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