WX temp charts looking positive this morning, with pleasantly warm weather for the next 2 weeks for W Europe including Britain (possibly excepting the far N of Scotland). Elsewhere, quite hot for E Europe, rather cool for N Scandinavia, N Russia and a small patch in the Alps; the Med doing what it usually does in summer. In week 1 very dry for the N Sea and Baltic, with some rain around the edges of this incl W Britain; in week 2 wet across the Alps and N Norway, fairly dry elsewhere.
GFS Op - mostly HP to Tue 25th (though this mainly to the south at the weekend, with W-lies, perhaps less settled for the N); then the HP moves E-wards and LP drifts N from France to become centred 1000mb Wales Fri 28th before drifting to the NE. Then a broad and rather unfocused area of HP for the following week, but with a tendency to stay to the SW with cool-ish NW-ly winds.
ECM - less positive than GFS. A deeper trough embedded in the W-lies Sat 22nd, and then the LP arrives from France Wed 26th setting up a more definite centre 995mb Hebrides Fri 28th before moving to the N Sea Sun 30th with an associated cold pool.
GEM - close to ECM but the LP on 26th is deeper (990mb) and near N Ireland before moving to SW England at the weekend
GEFS - in the S, temps rising to warm (ca 6C above norm) Thu 27th with good agreement from ens members, before dropping back to norm for the rest of the period with more variability; not much rain at any time but if anything, more later on. In the N, similar temp profile but some heavy rain from Thu 27th occurring irregularly and not in every run.
Summer enthusiasts should be cheering on GFS.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl