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Ally Pally Snowman
22 June 2024 05:03:04
Nice upgrades this morning for extending the warmth through next week. GEM,  GFS and Arpege all have 30c at some point.👍

No significant breakdown being shown now as well. Good news for Summer fans. 🤞it holds.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
22 June 2024 05:14:00

Nice upgrades this morning for extending the warmth through next week. GEM,  GFS and Arpege all have 30c at some point.👍

No significant breakdown being shown now as well. Good news for Summer fans. 🤞it holds.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Let hope the models knowing we are in summer season to keep churning out summery charts right to Sept.  Need warm to very warm July first half as I am off work to do painting conservatory walls so need to open door and windows while warm outside.  Greenland don’t deserve having all out HP all the time and much needed LP most times to keep ice sheet minimise melting.
+2
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2024 05:50:43

Pointless. Not communicated through any mainstream media. Means absolutely nothing to the vast majority of the UK population, and I’m not even suggesting it should be communicated widely

ticks a box

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

I agree, it’s only meant for health and social care settings.  My point was, the Met Office are expecting temperatures to reach 27c. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2024 05:54:34

At 27C is not a heatwave as it just warm and tad above average for end of June 23C for London.  Over reacting and only should put warnings for temperature over 30C.  This coming warm spell is bog standard and normal for summer season.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

It isn’t a general warning Jiries.  It’s an advisory for the health and social care sector and is very relevant to them. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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+3
doctormog
22 June 2024 06:12:02

It isn’t a general warning Jiries.  It’s an advisory for the health and social care sector and is very relevant to them. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 



Absolutely, and that is why they are not publicised, at this level at least, in the same manner as severe weather warnings.

Its nice to see the output continue to look more summery albeit not totally settled.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+2
Matty H
22 June 2024 06:54:21

It isn’t a general warning Jiries.  It’s an advisory for the health and social care sector and is very relevant to them. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 



My niece is a nurse practitioner, and one of my friend’s partner is a GP. I’ve messaged my mate and my niece and neither get this communicated or were even aware of it, so I’m not sure it’s overly relevant at all to the health care sector. Maybe more so for social care

Anyway, that’s off topic. What isn’t off topic is the charts look ok again this morning. Being picky they are still nowhere near as high-dominated or hot and humid as I would like, but this will do for starters
Yate, Nr Bristol
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Ally Pally Snowman
22 June 2024 06:58:53
ECM also much improved run. Very warm/hot , looks thundery as well.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
TheJudge
22 June 2024 07:00:04

It isn’t a general warning Jiries.  It’s an advisory for the health and social care sector and is very relevant to them. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 



This is true, as I work directly in health and social care, you will see the old and very young people being admitted into A&E/hospital more frequently during a spell of warmer weather. Often dehydrated and with sunburn. 

It is a reminder to community health care workers and neighbours to make sure the elderly are well hydrated and are ok between social care visits. You will often see elderly with their heating on full even when temps outside are above 25 degrees. Might seem daft but elerdly who cannot move around the house independently still feel cold regardless how warm it is outside.

What we see as a period of summery weather, can be a killer for some. Remember to check your on your elderly neighbours, even when we do not think the weather is extreme for us 😊 

 
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2024 07:31:43
WX charts scale back the warmth in Europe in week 2, especially around the Baltic. Britain grades from warm in the south to cool in the north; continental Europe stays generally warm; coastal Norway and Iceland rather cold. Dry from Britain to the Baltic in week 1 with rain in Iceland and in S Europe; in week 2 the latter dies out while the former extends S-wards to Scotland and Norway.

GFS Op - HP in from the west to start the week, but LP from France links up with a deeper one near Iceland so all of Britain is under a broad trough by Fri 28th. HP, again from the SW, re-establishes for next weekend, but sinks S-wards by Wed 3rd to usher in a spell of zonal weather with W-ly winds, later NW-ly, fine for S Britain. less settled in the N.

ECM - the trough on Fri 28th is more concentrated in the N (990mb Malin) and then drifts S-wards, filling, so although pressure rises for next weekend, it's more by default and described better as shallow LP.

GEM - generates the deep LP as per ECM but a day earlier , but then moves it quickly NE so HP soon back and firmly in control

GEFS - warm until Thu 27th and then temp dropping back to norm with general ens agreement. From Mon 1st mean is slightly above norm but with plenty of variation, in particular op & control going in opposite directions. Not much rain in the S & E but a few runs have big peaks. In the NW, more continual from Thu 27th but relatively small amounts. 
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Chichester 12m asl
+3
David M Porter
22 June 2024 08:43:45
ECM seems to me to be somewhat out of kilter with GFS and UKMO this morning. ECM wants to keep LP over or just to the SW of the UK whereas the latter two models have it placed further north with less by way of nothern blocking. We shall see which of them turns out to be nearest the mark.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
White Meadows
22 June 2024 10:22:11

It isn’t a general warning Jiries.  It’s an advisory for the health and social care sector and is very relevant to them. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 

have to agree with Jires, no need for unnecessary heatwave ‘advisories’ with the current outlook. Daft nanny state hyping up the media with a standard spell of Uk summer warmth. 
It will sure feel a lot more pleasant than the cool conditions experienced all year especially on the coasts. 
June CET still running at -1.5c

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 
 
+2
doctormog
22 June 2024 10:35:15

have to agree with Jires, no need for unnecessary heatwave ‘advisories’ with the current outlook. Daft nanny state hyping up the media with a standard spell of Uk summer warmth. 
It will sure feel a lot more pleasant than the cool conditions experienced all year especially on the coasts. 
June CET still running at -1.5c

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



The alerts are not for the media they are for health and social care organisations and there is no “hyping” in the case of a yellow alert simply:

“Description
Minor impacts are probable across the health and social care sector, including:
Increased use of healthcare services by the vulnerable population.
Increase in risk of mortality amongst vulnerable individuals and increased potential for indoor environments to become very warm.”

I suspect they vast majority of health and social care practitioners will also not be aware of the alerts beyond at most “look out for x, y or z” symptoms. It is in the category of damned if you do (accusations of nanny state) and damned if you don’t (“why were the health and social care sectors not more prepared for an increased in heat related issues amongst the most vulnerable?”)

For most people, or those that like the warmth, the weather in current output will be very welcome.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+2
Rob K
22 June 2024 10:41:12
“met4cast” on Twitter saying that strengthening easterly trade winds could be a bad sign for settled weather (negative AAM)

https://x.com/met4castuk/status/1804452585530614229?s=46&t=pi-PW2h-zayk3Ew8WL18KA 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2024 11:34:44

have to agree with Jires, no need for unnecessary heatwave ‘advisories’ with the current outlook. Daft nanny state hyping up the media with a standard spell of Uk summer warmth. 
It will sure feel a lot more pleasant than the cool conditions experienced all year especially on the coasts. 
June CET still running at -1.5c

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

It is NOT a heatwave advisory and if you’re not involved with the health and care sector it isn’t relevant.  However, It is important to some, including our daughter, who acquired a brain injury 4 years ago and is in residential care.  She lost the ability to regulate her own body temperature, so staff will be monitoring her more closely. 

So sorry to have taken this off topic, it wasn’t intended, but there are valid reasons for these alerts.  
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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+5
Retron
22 June 2024 16:26:00
The new MetO raw has upgraded the heat: even in Heathrow, 29C counts as "hot" at this time of year (the average is just under 23 right now).

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpsvg3nc#?date=2024-06-26 

A good chance of the first 30 of the year on Wednesday, I'd suggest, with an outside chance of seeing one on Tuesday and Thursday too.
Leysdown, north Kent
Taylor1740
22 June 2024 16:45:06
Looks to be quite a consistent signal now for a cool westerly to setup as we go into July.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
cultman1
22 June 2024 16:46:57
We shall see not convinced 
Ally Pally Snowman
22 June 2024 16:58:18

The new MetO raw has upgraded the heat: even in Heathrow, 29C counts as "hot" at this time of year (the average is just under 23 right now).

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpsvg3nc#?date=2024-06-26 

A good chance of the first 30 of the year on Wednesday, I'd suggest, with an outside chance of seeing one on Tuesday and Thursday too.

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Met Office has the magic 30c for Greater London on Wednesday now. Im not completely convinced yet will be touch and go.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07&ved=2ahUKEwjikLf01u-GAxUVU0EAHcHHC0cQFnoECBYQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1U-H-Fso8ikSH6_LYwqh12 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
bledur
22 June 2024 18:45:22

Looks to be quite a consistent signal now for a cool westerly to setup as we go into July.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


 Seeing as that is 10 days away and the modelling for next week has been all over the place i would not take any heed of signals for future weather. Met Office are all over the shop.🤨
+1
White Meadows
23 June 2024 05:28:08

The alerts are not for the media they are for health and social care organisations and there is no “hyping” in the case of a yellow alert 

Increased use of healthcare services by the vulnerable population.
Increase in risk of mortality amongst vulnerable individuals and increased potential for indoor environments to become very warm.”

For most people, or those that like the warmth, the weather in current output will be very welcome.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I guess, turn the heating down, or even off might do it.
Temps back to normal finally after a below average June so far still running at -1.5 below normal. A few favoured spots topping the high 20’s this week (Heathrow runway 2 perhaps) but temps fall off a cliff next weekend with the ever familiar rain spikes creeping back in. 
 
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