Matt Hugo tweeted:

 

Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81 14m14 minutes ago

12Z EC holding the main centre of gravity of the high next week further south meaning the colder continental flow is less likely too...

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Why is it that we can't seem to get an easterly - no matter what the gfs, ecm, operational run or charts etc show it always fails ..why!?

Does this mean the block will collapse!? - I remember this failed in December and now it's failing again!? Why?

As for the cold spell - it's been a non event for the SW. only higher moorland areas saw snow. But it was never cold, only the wind made it feel colder and to be frank the temperature never fell below +2c and the winds were west to north westerly NOT northerly.

---

What i want to know is ..did it sow in that famous snowless location we are always being told about Leysdown-on-Sea,!!!

Alan
Fron not even a flake .. Romsey

This could well be it now for another year! At least some of us saw some snow

 

---

Yer what a load of sh.t models cant trust them more than 3 days out at moment that eastly looked so likely im sure someone got a spell on the uk to block eastlys

So another let down in the gfs models - they were showing easterly's for the middle of next week onwards? has this flip just taken place in a few hours or is it me? Because from what I SEE the HP is over southern UK and slipping SE wards into France like what we had in December!? We just cane seem to get a sustained spell of cold weather with easterly wind.

---

 

yes looks like a slow crawl away over a few weeks ...as we recall our 3 flakes of snow, 2 frosts, 1 day of below average temps and the dozens of useless long range forecasts! 

The type of synoptics that in the past would have delivered frequent heavy snow showers giving a good accumulation yet again, in the most lame and pathetic era for weather in recorded history, produce practically nothing 

Must have been about five showers all day which have produced the thinnest of coverings and now there is a pile of precipitation to the north that is just stuck there while we are stuck with more mind-numbing windy dross that's stopping the temperature getting much below freezing 

Once this useless totally dire "cold spell" comes to an end there's more grey mild crap next week to endure as if there hasn't been enough over the past seven weeks. The wait for even a half decent winter snowfall, of the type that the vast majority of winters in the past, would have produced multiple times, just goes on and on

 

---

Personally I'm enjoying looking out at the frozen snow covered ground with snow showers forecast for tonight but I guess I am easy to please.

---

 

Yes ...that's it  - get it out your system Rich.,!

At least your saw some snow  - we only had light ice pellets and soft hail with sleety flakes for a few seconds but the temperature rose as these showers approached last night and it never got below +2c it was +3c last night in Exeter - The northerly wind made it feel cold today but still we had a high of 7c....which is average. Like now for instance we are still at +2.5c in Exeter. It was a non - event for the SW especially lowland areas too. Actually it was more of a north westerly wind for the SW. This is a deja vu of NYD in fact. Also the break down to milder weather...doesn't look like it will produce anything wintry or snow except for higher grounds of Scotland and next week looks rubbish for snow.

The south needs an easterly for sustained cold spell and to last. - Ironic how Heathrow cancelled 80 flights due to a bit of sleet!! haha! 

---

 

Wrong thread Doc!!

This is the moaning thread not the gloating thread

 

---

Sorry 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

---

As a professional forecaster, I don't think it is M.H place to be analysing each model run publically like this because 1. they rarely show consistency at that range and 2. people listen to him and pin their hopes on his musings. At least the UK Met Office stick to their guns despite what the models show with each run. M.H just seems to make an ass of himself.

---

I know many of you envy (relatively) snowy Scotland, but in the central belt we as usual got only a dusting of snow, less than an inch in most places, while the higher ground to the north and south got the lion's share of it. Livingston got a half inch or less. On the other hand many places further south got a half-decent fall. When north or northwesterly winds blow we are in the rain shadow and are lucky to catch a shower or two. We only get real snow from an east or northeast wind, particularly cold polar maritime air, or the rare polar low. We do seem to be colder than most other places though, particularly further south. We're sitting below -3C at the moment and have been since 6pm. With a strong wind blowing it's a penetrating frost here tonight.

---

The problem is we're in a polar maritime air mass. More often than not Pm air means that dew points are either just about cold enough, or just slightly too mild for snow, hence the marginality we've seen. Furthermore, those dew points also mean that during the day snow will often melt fairly quickly. It's actually not because of the sun like a lot of people think.

To get proper long lasting snow that lies for days, you need a proper Arctic air mass or a cold continental air mass in place. Those air masses have much lower dew points. That's why during December 2010, snow lay on the ground for days, even though it was extremely sunny.

---

Yes, that is the issue (polar maritime air mass!) - The ground was not cold enough before and it never got that cold.

Unlike in December 2010 for instance when the snow fell and stayed for several weeks in many parts and almost a month over the moors.

This cold snap/ especially yesterday was a bit of a deja vu of what happened in the south NYD - - again - the SW had more of a North westerly wind than an Arctic blast of northerly wind - which only resulted in temporary coverings of wet snow over Moors whilst rain/hail with soft hail/ice pellets fell at lower levels and as you rightly said it never got that cold either - It was only the wind that made it feel cold - not even a frost - in fact now as I type it's still 1.5c above freezing. Also when we did have showers last night, the temperature rose by 0.5 of a degree to above +2c to give rain/sleet or soft hail. It's only a 2 day event for many and the south west never really got cold. Today's high was 7c - Which is average.

I saw some webcam's in Aviemore - doesn't look like a lot of snow fell there either - Can't tell the depth but perhaps 5cm or 2 inches"? 

Now we have milder weather coming on Saturday night pushing in from the NW bringing rain instead of a wintry breakdown of snow first is frustratingly annoying. I saw photos and the cold in eastern and south eastern Europe and the amount of snow Italy and Greece had - which puts out slushy deposit of wet snow and +1c to shame.

I use to remember some classic wintry breakdowns to milder weather with precipitation starting off as snow back in 90's and early 00's but with this utterly crap cold snap we have had - it never really got that cold enough anyway to start off with.

What was very interesting - John Hammond compared this cold snap with January 1987 when daytime temperatures never rose above -6c in many parts and we were talking over a foot of snow with blizzards. 

What's even more sad and embarrassing was that Heathrow had to cancel over 80 flights because there was sleet. Ok, it's better to be safe than sorry, I get that! But come on!? The rain turned to sleet at Heathrow and the temperature fell to +2c? I mean really? in mid-winter!?  Yet we had the news reporters there as if there's no tomorrow.

Apart from the storm surge for N. AND Eastern coast - this cold spell was too over hyped. - I can go on for ever but I think I have contributed to this winter rant thread enough for now.

We can only hope that this SSW will deliver a proper block to bring us a deeper and more prolonged spell of colder weather (more than a couple days) where it snows and lasts all day and temperatures actually fall below freezing for once.

 

---

The 18z gfs tonight is utter rubbish - just supporting the met o's forecast of mild grey westerly stuff for days on end, the ice days have gone even from FI and most of the frosty nights too except in SE. The only hope is that the skies will clear when the high is over us - with light winds those high temps will never by sustained but it seems there is a lot of warmth in the system which'll mean bright days, cold evenings then overcast mild nights.
Best rule is too find he mode giving the mildest solution and go with it - you'll rarely be far wrong.

Yesterday morning I posted that we hadn't had a flake of snow but my sister tells me we did!  She looked out at 2am and it had been snowing. But there was no sign of it at 5am.  I think she'd been dreaming. 

But just as I set off for work at 7.15am we had some squally heavy sleet, the stuff that sticks to your windscreen and makes driving difficult. It lasted the whole 20 minute drive, then turned to rain!  An hour later, the sun was out with a bitterly cold wind blowing.  

---

Rubbish spell = 1/10

No snow - even last nights low fail to reach freezing! Pathetic. - it was never that cold.

Very few places in the UK reached freezing or dipped below by night. No frost either.

---

Worst cool snap ever.