There’s a difference between “SE England” and “places that are not Scotland”, unless your version of SE England stretches west to County Kerry and North to Tyneside.
All the main models show well above average temperatures and sunshine across the majority of the British Isles. Actually including Edinburgh.
Originally Posted by: TimS
In the forecast that I was referring to above though, I was only really really talking about the extreme SE of England when I was talking about that particular area and by that, I'm really only talking about the likes of Kent and Sussex.
Of course, I'm not suggesting in any way that we're not going to be seeing above average temperatures here in Edinburgh or some sunshine. For most of the time, our temperatures are usually always above average anyway, far more often than not whether that be due to climate change (which is then a subject for the climate forum rather than here) or any other factors which might be the cause of that. Furthermore, we are usually always going to get some sunshine, even during an unsettled spell of weather and especially during this time of year.
When you add those things together, getting above average temperatures and some sunshine in this part of the world at this time of year is no big deal to me. For me, what I would describe as proper summer weather only really happens when we have a blocking area of high pressure in charge which is keeping Atlantic weather systems out to the west completely at bay, and bringing us a lot of glorious warm or even hot sunshine. That is especially true if that blocking high is sitting just to our east and feeding in that really hot air from North Africa which then brings a risk of 20+ºC upper air temperatures over the south of England, which then result in the surface temperatures in that part of the world going into the upper 30sºC.
However, the forecast which I was referring to above shows no signs of that happening and although the main models might be suggesting otherwise, I don't think that this will happen either. I think that we have been spoiled quite a lot during this summer up until now with plenty of decent summer weather this year and given the nature of the British climate and our position as an Island nation bounded by the Atlantic Ocean to our west and the North Sea to our east, I just think that it would be asking too much for the weather to be almost continuously hot and sunny throughout the entire summer with very few interruptions to that.
That is why, it wouldn't surprise me one single bit if our summer was now already over for another year, although it was all good while it lasted and far better than anything which I can remember in my lifetime up until now.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.