Pretty strong agreement for a dip in pressure around August 8 followed by a slight return of HP

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png 

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I do not know what you are seeing in the models that the rest of us and the professionals cant its looking mostly dry for the foreseeable for most of England in the next 2 weeks if the jet was heading south that would not be the case ??

Can we borrow your time machine - the one you have that allows you to know what August 2018 was like?

This morning’s showery rain has been forecast for a couple of days now.

I sometimes wonder if some people actually look at charts before posting!

Just for balance, the ECM op in the latter stages is an outlier.

The "wet spell" since last Friday has delivered a grand total of 10.6mm of rain here. I know parts of the south east had a deluge this morning but we recorded 0.0mm of rain and the grass is showing few signs of recovery. More warm and dry weather is on the way during the coming days and there's a slim chance of record breaking heat early next week. A thundery breakdown may follow but then high pressure looks likely to lurk. I agree it may not be as dry and warm as what has gone but that does not equate to a "washout" by any stretch of the imagination.

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GP morning update for latter part of next week

The early part of next week should see high pressure still in control but it's exact position will be critical. Much of Spain, Portugal and France will have a potentially record-breaking heatwave and if the high pressure moves east we could start to pull this intense heat out way through Monday and Tuesday.

If the weather does turn very hot early next week it's likely to be quite brief as this unstable Spanish Plume is likely to trigger violent thunderstorms followed by a return of cooler and fresher air from off the Atlantic.

be interesting what the models pick up on this over the next few days....

Are you writing rubbish on purpose? This morning's downpour was very much expected and Hammond's call still looks very poor.

The outlook remains mostly warm and dry even if  (and it's a big if) we get a slightly unsettled period in mid-August.

 

 

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You keep blathering on about the jet yet in the short to medium term it heads north and weakens?  It's barely an influence at all into the second week of August.

You'll continue to be criticised if you keep posting rubbish, as many others have realised 

GFS 06Z now going for 52C in Portugal on Saturday, with 850hPa temps of 31C. 

 

 

 

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GFS 06z 186

 

ECM 00z 192

 

It's ridiculous, isn't it? Models are all over the place. 06Z GFS run looks to be keeping it warm and humid longer into next week while ECM wants a fresh northerly.

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Crazy Rob!

ECM and GFS are like a mirror image of each other - don't ever recall seeing that before!

Not that I trust GFS that much (or any model at the moment), but it has been consistent in its recent output, unlike the ECM.

6Z GFS goes for a real soaker the weekend after next, still pretty warm though up to that point

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018073106/gfs-2-276.png?6 

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Still a handful of GEFS runs bringing the 20C isotherm into the south early next week, but it's a bit of an outside chance.

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Agreed. It's all over the place! I honestly think the models haven't got a clue at the moment. Anything could happen.

It does look though that August may well turn out a different month to June and July. Perhaps wet and warmish overall, but not hot. Certainly a big doubt anyway as to whether the summer of 2018 will make the Top Five in the CET summer series.

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Heat still looks far from nailed on, even in the south. Above average temps from Thursday, and largely dry for a week or more, though.

 

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It's been steadily slipping here since the beginning of July so it just looks like a continuation of the decline which I feared.

May and particularly June were our special summer months this year.

 Just read the J. Hammond  look ahead and he is really saying August will become more mixed which at this stage looks possible. The M.O long range also trends a little more unsettled so still looking pretty warm for a while  and  weatherweb going for a more unsettled mid August, Not the more clear cut dry and settled theme of earlier two months.

6Z GFS parallel run is pretty cool and unsettled in the second half of next week although it does have a brief hot plume (20C+ at 850 into the south) before that.

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GFS12z looking very different next week.

GFS12z going for a major change to more unsettled and cooler weather during the first half of next week. Surface pressure & precipitation loop. Individual charts here https://t.co/2S81YQxzn2 pic.twitter.com/QXXjbnkkwe

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) July 31, 2018

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Now GFS has a wobble! Monday and Tuesday look hot though.
I don't think any output past 96 hours can be taken seriously at the moment. Massive swings between runs.
It was GFS that was being the most consistent recently. Now it seems to have been affected by whatever it is that's causing the uncertainly.

I think there is often too much emphasis on op runs and the gfs ensemble. . 

Even though there is lower confidence for next week, a MME still suggests that overall anticyclonic conditions with below normal rain and above normal temps is the most likely outcome. . 

GFS 12z op looks much more unsettled than the ensemble mean from midweek next week.

It's v.unusual to get three dry and hot summer months on the trot though isn't it - therefore an unsettled August has to be the form horse.

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So this time the GFS has the high moving eastwards, temporarily drawing up hot air for the beginning of next week. This gets ushered away quickly as the high sinks SE allowing a flabby low in from the NW introducing much cooler and fresher air with showers. A secondary low provides more general rain for the following weekend.

Thereafter the Azores high finally ridges in from the SW but it all looks rather tenuous. Fun to see the different scenarios offered by the models at the moment. No real consensus forming at all beyond this weekend - just where will our high go? Will it 'go' that easily, too?

This has a long way to go before we can really know what'll happen. For what it's worth I can see our high moving eastwards but perhaps not as swiftly as the GFS 12z wants to do it. I can also see the Azores high do a better and quicker job of re-ridging in long-term as well as we cycle in a more familiar '3 fine days and a thunderstorm' -style scenario.