Thankfully they are in FI range so it can change by then.   Forget the FI and look forward to the coming hot period.

Two hot summer months does not reduce the chances of August being the same.

If you spin two consecutive heads on a coin, there is still the same chance of getting a head on the third spin.

UKMO Contingency Planners Guidance: August To October 2018  [ looking drier than average and warmer and average. ] if that's being the case will we have another UNIQUE winter like 2009/10 to make up for the rain fall...

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/flash.html

I think some people also forget how in May/June the models kept underestimating the high pressure more than 5 days out, we could easily be back in such a setup.

In fact I'd be surprised to see any rain at all down here during the first 10 days of August and I expect plenty of sunshine.

The one thing that ECM and UKMO share at T+144 is that tendency to lower heights into Scandi - IMO that would rule out a long term block reforming over the UK, rather the Azores riding into UK before troughing pushes heights away to the east - i.e. BAU UK Summer.

That doesn't rule out warm or event hot conditions, just not the longevity of benign conditions we've seen thus far in this summer. Still, all could yet change, but there's a growing trend going on there.

June had plenty of days with troughing in Scandi.

It is very notable how much the models are struggling at the moment. The ENS are all over the place. If we look at the latest verification stats we see that the numbers are really quite low. GFS, GEM (CMC), UKM are all at essentially the same number around 0.864 for T120 500mb heights. 

Usually UKM is close to or above 0.9. ECM is holding above 0.9 but only just. It is substantially outperforming all other models at present but still well below the 0.92 level it is often at.

The new GFS parallel run is doing somewhat better than the current operational GFS and is second only to ECM at present.

Looking at today’s data rather than the 31 day running mean we see that all models are verifying below 0.9 in both the northern and Southern Hemispheres which is quite unusual. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz5.html

A more unsettled ensemble from the EC, next one please!

Transitional troughing from the NW of Scandi mostly rather than Atlantic troughing from the west.

face facts, summer is in decline so enjoy this weekend as it maybe the last of the heat hopefully! 

Yes that is quite true.

And from this Friday the GFS, UKMO and ECMWF Models are progressively clearly trending pointing to end of Norway Sweden High and replaced by Low Pressure Reconveying over SE Canada SW Greenland NE USA Newfoundland then around near Iceland and North Atlantic.  Arctic High is shown to be a big influencer on the period from 3rd August to 9th and 10th August.  Weaker Azores High after this Sunday but chopping and changing in last 48 hours to today’s 12z, waxing and waning effects of Azores High- what with the cooler runs of late!!.

And it is clearly looking more cooler but more benign weather from Monday to Thursday next week. The GFS or the ECMWF runs both struggling with accuracy.

I notice the Jetstream has a very strong link Canada NE USA North Atlantic and NNE Europe and SE Arctic over Nova Zemlya And over Northern tip of Russia (1000 miles NNE of Norway) and wetter the further North you go with High Pressure becoming less able to draft hot air across the UK. There is ongoing sense that next week it could turn quiet and settled - GFS and ECMWF need some work over the next couple of days hmm.

To me the outlook is uncertain and it would take a brave person to call our prospects for August.

We’re not going to match the incessant heat of July or the prolonged settled weather of June so logic dictates a ‘decline’ is correct.

It needs to be mentioned however that a decline in this case is merely a return to a more typical summer pattern for the British Isles. 

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

And typical summer weather in the British Isles is, quite frankly, not very good. Much too cloudy most of the time. 

May, June and July have made me realise how much I need to move to a sunny climate as average British weather just won't suffice at all. Maybe I can take advantage of freedom of movement before it ends. 

How you can make such a statement in the face of such ongoing uncertainty in the model output for the period from early next week onwards is beyond me.

You may end up being right of course, but I think the best approach at the moment would be to simply wait and see.

The weather forecast still suggests hot and sunny weather rest of this week, and this weekend and much of the following week. The North cooler but it stays hot in Southern UK. 850 hPa And 500 hPa Pressure maps indicate the higher temperatures not as high as real forecast temperatures give the data seen on the wunderground app.😎😆☀️👍. Zzz Lol.

The voice of reason.

it seems a few folk should redirect their interests to an Autumn prospects thread.

The problem is what happens after those few hot days (which are largely restricted to the south anyway). It’s looking more and more like cool northwesterlies setting in, as per the 18z GFS. The question is whether the Azores high can salvage any of the rest of August (I’m also going to be camping around the middle of the month so really don’t want “typical British summer weather” please!)

As I look at GFS 0z in FI, it seems quite keen for the Atlantic to link up with a heat trough over France from the middle of next week, so maybe some thunderstorm activity. ECM which was keener on this, now keeps HP in charge. Still warm/hot either way.

But a lot can happen in 7 days.