Disappointed UK extremophiles can still keep a vicarious eye on Portugal where things still seem on track

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Summer is over. Washout.

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 The facts are you have been constantly talking about the summer turning into a washout! Apparently on the basis of an article a forecaster has published on the Internet.

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😁 

Yep, the summer is over brigade may have jumped the gun yet agaiin, yes it will break at some point but that may well be next month or even Oct/November.

Off to the lakes next week it will be what it will be....

The atlantic trough developing may help pump the heat up for the south but will also increase the chance of torrential thunderstorms as the week goes on. 

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First day of another heatwave today somewhere should get to 28c. Over the next 10 days or so we should get to 30c somewhere on 5,6,7 maybe even 8 days. and 35c on 1 or 2. ECM has 20c 850s into the SE by day 7. Yet some in here seem to think summer has finished.  

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That may be so and you would expect Thunderstorms with that heat and humidity but what you were intimating was a Jetstream plunging south with its attendant Low pressure areas with washout rains etc ....that of course is not showing in the current forecast so basically you are wrong .

At some point in the future the Atlantic may return but for now Summer continues .

  Spot on. A subtle back track from Beast is easily seen through 

Encouraging output this morning from the big three 

North-south divide in evidence this morning. GFS at T174 has 850s of 2C in Scotland and 20C on the Sussex coast!

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where the boundary is there is likely to be some torrential rain

cools off for us all later

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Yes - the sun is heading south so it is only a matter of time 

Not really what I want to be seeing before heading to a tent in the West Country. Some chilly nights on the way if that verified.

 

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Don’t do that to me! I thought that was a chart for next week!

Glad it won’t happen now I’ve checked that date, phew!

Lovely to see those deep blues returning again

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Had a look at the GFS 06z. A hot outlier, but still: it’s the second upgrade in a row. On the TimS model of 4 upgrades then 4 downers, we’re 2 runs away from a long term scorcher.

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One week's time. 850s of 5C or 20C on the south coast? Take your pick.

 

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Well I know which one I'd pick, but definitely highlights the level of uncertainty.

The difference in those ensembles here (@ t850hPa) is about 2°C. There is however a wide range of options at that’s time and overall the mean is close to the long term average. Given the range I’m not sure how much the mean is worth! from about the 9th inwards the GEFS ensemble mean remains around average for most, based on the 06z suite.

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Seems like the models and forecast charts are all over the place.

 

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GFS Operational is hot in the medium term.

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But the swings continue and by 18hrs it is 12C+ cooler (at 850mb) in the south than the 06Z was. Small changes in the position of the jet have a huge effect for the UK with this set-up.

Surface temps for next Thursday around 20-22C instead of high 20s.

 

I don't think next week will be pinned down until the weekend, although the Met Office seem to think it will cool down quite significantly from midweek, so this run could be near the mark.

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http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17417.gif 

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Maybe it's just me, but from what I can recall of the model output over the past couple of months, the models seems to have been all over the place for most of the time this summer to dat. More so than was the case last year, despite last summer being generally much more unsettled.

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

This is the moment of divergence. Does the trough move across and introduce a cooler flow from the north or does it stay away long enough to keep the drag up from France

 

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