theweatheroutlook

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Rob K
16 January 2019 16:19:13

Virtually the whole country with at least a dusting this time next week, according to the latest GFS.
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2019011612/gfs-16-162.png?12


 


And an easterly incoming by T168. Swings and roundabouts continue.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Heavy Weather 2013
16 January 2019 16:20:10

GFS currently on track as the best of the winter so far. 


This at 171hrs is brilliant


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_171_1.png

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Rob K
16 January 2019 16:29:33


GFS currently on track as the best of the winter so far. 


This at 171hrs is brilliant


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_171_1.png


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Not sure it will necessarily be the best of the winter, depends if the high can build to the NW rather than slowly sinking into Europe.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
16 January 2019 16:30:56

you can't make this **** up. Brilliant GFS 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
16 January 2019 16:36:22


you can't make this **** up. Brilliant GFS 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Well the signs were there on the 06Z GFS, with some pretty cold members in the 144-180 hour timeframe. I said this morning that I would expect the ensemble mean for that spell to flip to mild or cold soon. The op has gone cold on this one, so let's see if the rest of the pack follows yet.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
kmoorman
16 January 2019 16:36:56

Not bad :)


Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Russwirral
16 January 2019 16:40:59
Belter of a GFS run. Probably the best so far (considering the short timescales)

Bank!

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Rob K
16 January 2019 16:42:29
Some cold nights in Scotland especially under that HP cell if this were to verify.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
kmoorman
16 January 2019 16:48:56

Rinse and repeat?


Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Heavy Weather 2013
16 January 2019 16:50:40

GFS 12z certainly not a run for the wrist slashers. This is why one run should never be taken in isolation. Now why do I worry the ECM will show something totally different 

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Rob K
16 January 2019 16:56:51

I guess that's the Daily Express's "snow bomb" 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
kmoorman
16 January 2019 16:59:16


I guess that's the Daily Express's "snow bomb" 



Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


Knowing my lucky, a sleet bomb here. 

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
jhall
16 January 2019 17:01:20

What I want to see now is tonight's 0Z GFS operational run consolidating what's happened in today's 12Z, rather than reversing it as seems to have been the case for the last two or three days. I think the same applies to the ECM, if not to the same extent.

Cranleigh, Surrey
Rob K
16 January 2019 17:07:16

GEFS mean at 156 says the slider is a go! 


 



 


Compare to the previous run GEFS mean at the same time here. Massive shift!


 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
16 January 2019 17:08:17

Temper your expectations, we've all been here before.


If the ECM is on board then tentative excitement may be warranted. If the ECM disagrees its probably right.


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Rob K
16 January 2019 17:10:09


Temper your expectations, we've all been here before.


If the ECM is on board then tentative excitement may be warranted. If the ECM disagrees its probably right.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


Looks like a pretty decisive flip in the near-term GEFS though. At T174 the London 850mb mean is now close to -7C versus -3C on the 6Z run.


 


There are some absolute monsters in the perturbations too. This by T192:



 


Looks like setting up for the first London -15C run of the winter

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
16 January 2019 17:13:15


 


 


Looks like a pretty decisive flip in the near-term GEFS though. At T174 the London 850mb mean is now close to -7C versus -3C on the 6Z run.


 


There are some absolute monsters in the perturbations too. This by T192:



Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Possible medicane on that one!


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Rob K
16 January 2019 17:15:08

GFS Parallel still being a party pooper though, not sliding the low nearly so cleanly.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gooner
16 January 2019 17:17:46

Quite a change from the G(E)FS , there were decent runs in the GEFS this morning so its good to see they have been followed

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
16 January 2019 17:19:32

Short London ensembles. Spot the difference from this morning's poor 00Z, on the left, to the 12Z:


 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
marco 79
16 January 2019 17:23:19
I'm sticking to fax charts....to much expectation past the realm of 120hrs at the minute....Alton towers has less rollercoaster rides then the model output past that timeframe....😕
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
Snowedin3
16 January 2019 17:23:19


Short London ensembles. Spot the difference from this morning's poor 00Z, on the left, to the 12Z:


 



Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


Flippity Flop you don’t stop✋ 

Dean Barnes
Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire
160m ASL 525 Ft
kmoorman
16 January 2019 17:23:36


Short London ensembles. Spot the difference from this morning's poor 00Z, on the left, to the 12Z:


 



Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


Much tighter agreement from the 22nd.  And a colder outlook from then.  All good so far.

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
fairweather
16 January 2019 17:27:06


I guess that's the Daily Express's "snow bomb" 



Originally Posted by: Rob K 


It does take a big leap of faith to get from the T288 to that  at T324. It could but but at that distance the odds of it following that particular evolution must be quite low. All round a better situation in that op run but I'm waiting for the ensembles because we've been here as recently as yesterday.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
tallyho_83
16 January 2019 17:27:54

Forget FI - in less than a weeks time we could see daytime maxes of 1 or 2c with sleet/snow flurries.




Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


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