P3 @ the end of the run:

P5 @ the end of the run:

Definitely something for the cold boosters to boost this evening. Tenuous but there.

Looks like a Fohn effect in Yorkshire and Cheshire/NE Wales on this map. Current forecast here is 14C on Tuesday so I’ll keep an eye on it.

I suspect the car will need a few cranks before she starts Neil. More late- than mid-Jan I suspect. 

I reckon that you could be on to something. We have a situation with a weakened jet and a High pressure system in our vicinity. How often have we seen this situation before with the High Pressure gradually easing away North or even West to allow in colder air? The real fly in the ointment at present is the fact that there is no cold pool to our East or North East. Yet, given the right synoptics, that can change quickly. The hour before dawn is the darkest and all that!

There are strong signals for a block over Central Europe circa 10th - 13th January with tentative signals attempting a northward push to Denmark or Scandinavia for the second half of the month.

Given the Atlantic SST profiles and present PV arrangement the favoured outcome is for any northward ridging  or retrogression to quickly be steam rolled by the jet. (as has been seen a couple of times recently)

An interesting few days of model watching ahead to see if we can get a Scandi block against such strong other drivers.

If the block does fail and sinks back into central or eastern Europe the door opens to a potentially very mild SSW'ly that would definitely challenge the all time Jan CET record of 7.5c. 

Whatever happens...the signal is a dry one particularly for the SE Britain...

Dry weather is great because it means its not going to make the mud worse... but at this time of year its not going to dry out.

We need a lengthy period of an easterly or at least a continental feed of sorts to really get rid of the excess moisture.

Up until thursday it hadnt rained here for about 7 days.... yet the road was still wet with puddles etc...

Trying to see something cold and wintry potential in the 18z ensembles:

Growing support for an easterly just after mid month around 16th but still a long way off and it's JFF. But of some interest at least for now.

P2

P4

P19

P20

18z Ensembles for London:

Ensembles for NYC:

Sorry to remain pessimistic but GFS op continues to promote HP over the UK notably this Sunday (1035mb) and Sun 19th (1045 mb) with a spell of westerlies in between as the HP centre has drifted S, not N. ECM also committed to HP and adds in a block to the E of the UK on Mon 13th.

GEFS - Staying (very) mild in S to 10 Jan, more briefly in N after which agreement between ens runs decreases - but mean is above seasonal average temp in S, close to normal in N but with more variability there. Dry-ish in SE, wet in NW.

Some intensive study of the 'postage stamps' needed to find any hints of cold air near the UK, even well into FI

I'm also pessimistic. As far as I'm concerned the prospects of a cold outbreak later this month remain tenuous.

What is more interesting is the outside possibility of the January temperature record falling next week. If it does it will mean max temperature records for the 3 winter months have tumbled in succession.

[quote=Arbroath 1320;1169115]Way off in FI but the possibility of a pressure build to the NE from mid month. A trend or a flash in the pan I wonder?

There have been 3-5 teasing postage stamps at the end of most runs since mid December, but none yet have come off. The number of cold scenarios suggests a 15-20% chance of these manifesting, but I guess the pop and control are selected for good reason, as they best suit the data, and the postage stamps are generated by tweaking the variables. 

The only potential is for the Euroslug high to migrate north when the jet stream responds to a change in QBO, when this eventually turns negative easterly), or there is a rare SSW event that then favours us for the cold air displacement. 

Fingers and eyes crossed. 

I fear that there is a gathering trend - well advised by climate scientist - that cold incursions will trend increasingly to the start and end of the winter period, with winter itself increasingly warm and wet. Frankly this the opposite to my preferred winter, which would be warm at the sides and cold in the middle. But hey - in life you don't always get what you want, especially when it's weather. 

Kind of reminds me of that brief period in December where the GFS ens were toying with an easterly as a minority option, which eventually vanished. We did end up with a brief HP build over scandi but sadly the jet shoved it south. 

The GFS T2M temps for London show 1 noticeably above average hump - well defined from 7th to 11th Jan. The Op and Control bring another from circa 14th to 17th although a lot of members don't have this and outside of these periods the T2M temps wobble around average. I can't see a record breaking mild from the current setup but at the moment as ever cold looks unlikely - possible but not likely.

Given the nature of the pattern I'd suggest T2M temps are a better indicator of the mildness of the setup than the 850's but could just be because really mild in winter annoys me and the 2m temps aren't showing this as strongly down here

GEFS paint a very mild picture.

Exceptional mildness this week followed by a period of less mild (but still above average temperatures this time next week). A new bump in the road appearing signifies another potentially very mild period emerging mid month. 

If its going to be mild, let's go really mild.