The Northern Hemisphere is currently running an anomaly of +1.3c...Most of Russia and further east to Siberia are currently +5 to +10c above average..Only Alaska and the far NE Canadian Arctic show any negative anomalies...

Interesting January night time record under threat for s/e T2 still increasing at midnight peak at around early hours Wednesday morning peaking at >12c 

Uk current record 13.1c

London 0z set T2

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=0&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

Is the record not the value for the highest minimum not the highest overnight temperature? In other words if it was colder at 9pm then that is the value that would used as the minimum regardless of whether the temperature was still increasing.

correct I used the wrong word should have used 

Highest daily minimum

It’s happened before, with or without SSW, or Easterly QBO or PV splits or fishy CODs and IO dipoles or maypoles or B&Qs, AOs, NAOs, AI, MFI and the rest of it. 
Sometimes the simplest way to look at things is the law of averages and the Alan Parson’s directive - what goes up must come down. The higher the temps stay, the more dramatic they will fall.

Well there's always a dramatic change in the offing in this thread in winter.

Of interest currently is how mild and stormy things could get. Back end of ECM is very volatile to say the least especially as you head west. 

GEFs 06z update may be a tad warmer or colder than the last update. I'm not going to bother checking. The key thing is it fully consistent with recent updates. With every passing day the potential for this winter to become notable increases.

I find the trend in the models this morning encouraging. We've had chart after chart showing high pressure very close to our south and a predominately mild and, for the south, reasonably settled, period of weather. Now we have the high being pushed away a little and low pressure making more progress east and south. It could, of course, just revert to high pressure and mild but it could also be a signal for low pressure to move east. Still very mobile, so sustained cold seems unlikely.

In the meantime it looks potentially stormy with quite a lot of rain in prospect again.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

...And Brian? I thought when you said (back in November or end of November) something like to make the best of the colder snap as it could be the last one/only one of the winter' - that you were joking as it was only 1st December and Winter was a day old! Well....? Full marks for making a clear and correct statement BRIAN. When will we have permission to start A winter is over thread?

Agreed and in the middle of all the mildness I feel the potential storminess is being somewhat overlooked. There will be some lovely weather around in the coming days.

As for winter is over on the fifth day of month 2? Perhaps in a month or month and a half.

Winter never started anyway! Good riddance to be honest. Lets see if the block can position well enough to pump up a Spanish plume I want to see bikinis in the park

Try 1st March.

😂😂 Some people never learn.

Surely the time for analysis about winter is when winter is over - and for the record that’s 1st March.

Except it wasn't in 2018 & 2013. Plenty of time for 'winter', whatever the calendar might say....

Good news for coldies. The first half of the Met Office 30 dayer has finally taken the plunge and gone over to the mild side. 

The meteorogical calendar says that is when spring begins, but as has been mentioned above there have been a couple of occasions in the last decade when wintry weather persisted beyond this date.

WIO around  March 23rd this year. We are only 15 days into a 90 day stretch. 😃

Extended Autumn then into Spring bypassing winter 

EC January seasonal update is out and, essentially, continues a long-standing signal for Feb, Mar and Apr to continue to see higher than average pressure over S England and to the S and E of the UK generally, with lower pressure to the N. Broad W or SW'ly type.

— Matt Hugo (@MattHugo81) January 5, 2020

GFS quickly files its response to the Met Office update.