I beg to differ - there will always been faint glimmers as there have been throughout the last few weeks of unremitting zonal on the GFS ops. Take GEM this morning for instance, or half a dozen of the GEFS suite. As likely as it is that these glimmers are just spikes in the noise, a rapid pattern change has happened before and could well happen again.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

I beg to differ - there will always been faint glimmers as there have been throughout the last few weeks of unremitting zonal on the GFS ops. Take GEM this morning for instance, or half a dozen of the GEFS suite. As likely as it is that these glimmers are just spikes in the noise, a rapid pattern change has happened before and could well happen again.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

What I meant was this - as others have said, the pattern is locked in for the foreseeable and it does not include any proper winter weather. Another January bites the dust and there is precious little eye candy to keep us interested. The odd chart in FI does not count, since there is no correlation or support for the occasional nuggetlet thrown out by the moderls.

In years past, we have sometimes got excited as FI charts get thrown out until everything goes pear shaped - we don't even have that level of interest this year.

I anticipate that the usual will happen, the NAO will tank in mid-March and we will get a cold spring just in time to kill the nascent buds of delicate plants.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

No changes...more of the same. Truly locked in pattern. The far reaches of FI is now 23rd January.

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

What I meant was this - as others have said, the pattern is locked in for the foreseeable and it does not include any proper winter weather. Another January bites the dust and there is precious little eye candy to keep us interested. The odd chart in FI does not count, since there is no correlation or support for the occasional nuggetlet thrown out by the moderls.

In years past, we have sometimes got excited as FI charts get thrown out until everything goes pear shaped - we don't even have that level of interest this year.

I anticipate that the usual will happen, the NAO will tank in mid-March and we will get a cold spring just in time to kill the nascent buds of delicate plants.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Blimey, I didn't realise that we are nearly at the end of January already!

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

It really is straw clutching, but the 06z is, I think, the third op run in a row to show -5 850s or lower, after the 22nd. With the current output all you can do is look for the faintest of light at the end of the tunnel!

Originally Posted by: overland 

It's very difficult to see how any significant cold is going to happen in the next two weeks which leaves us only the last week of Jan. It's also not as if there is any uncertainty in the models at the moment, this westerly driven pattern is something the models always seem to cope very well with. I think the best we can hope for over the next week or so is a few PM shots and maybe after that the possibility of a few frosts as shown on the end of the gfs 06Z.

Maybe things will change for the last week of Jan and into Feb? We can but hope.

Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 

Hi NS

While I fully take on board all that you say above, I think that some people are prone to falling into the trap of thinking that because the general model output that we have at any one moment in time appear to be relentlessly zonal and mild for the forseeable, it doesn't necessarily mean that there is no chance at all of a notable change in pattern appearing at short notice and with relatively little warning. That is why I have found some recent comments in which some people have all but written off the rest of January and indeed the rest of the winter in some cases a little hard to fathom.

I first began following the model output on a regular basis way back in early 2005, around the same time that I first started visiting this forum and following this and the many other discussion threads. One thing I realised pretty quickly about the model output is that sometimes, it is as unpredicatable as the weather itself often is in this country and has surprised us on a lot occasions, both in positive and negative ways. Just as happens with the weather itself, sometimes there is little telling as to what the models may be up to. See Neil's post at the end of the last page.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

ECM monthly has updated today. I can't recall seeing such positive temperature anomalies for all 4 weeks. If it is correct the old saying "you ain't seen nothing yet" would apply. This winter could easily be heading into the all time top 10 for mildness.

https://www.met.hu/en/idojaras/elorejelzes/europai_elorejelzes/

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

True, but there is a long way to go yet before we will be anywhere close to knowing how this winter will rank overall in terms of mildness/general temperatures.

We will only be half-way through the meteorogical winter when we reach the middle of next week and some of our most notable cold spells in the last decade or so came towards the end of the actual winter season or into early spring.

If the remainder of winter is the exact same, or even milder, than it has it has been to date then OK, but let's wait and see what happens between now and the end of February before we give our verdicts.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

I think with all due respect David, the writing is well and truly on the wall for this "winter". No dispute you still believe, but there is absolutely nothing even remotely interesting in the mid term, and I daresay we will be doing a post mortem on this horrendous winter in March.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

The furthest ahead that any of the model output goes that we have access to is a couple of weeks (GFS). The last time I checked, we are only at the end of the first full week of January, meaning the furthest ahead that the current GFS op runs go is up to circa Jan 22nd/23rd. There is still a month or so of winter to go after that.

If someone here owns a crystal ball and can tell me for a fact that the whole period between today and February 29th (this is a leap year btw!) is going to be a continuation of what we have witnessed thus far then be my guest. Otherwise, it is all just speculation and supposition on our part, just as it would be of someone here was predicting a notable freeze occuring in that period.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

The furthest ahead that any of the model output goes that we have access to is a couple of weeks (GFS). The last time I checked, we are only at the end of the first full week of January, meaning the furthest ahead that the current GFS op runs go is up to circa Jan 22nd/23rd. There is still a month or so of winter to go after that.

If someone here owns a crystal ball and can tell me for a fact that the whole period between today and February 29th (this is a leap year btw!) is going to be a continuation of what we have witnessed thus far then be my guest. Otherwise, it is all just speculation and supposition on our part, just as it would be of someone here was predicting a notable freeze occuring in that period.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Indeed but we were all sitting here exactly one month ago seeing such dire charts in model outputs and many were saying "winter is only one week old" etc. Now here we are in 2nd week of January and we are seeing more of the same and/or if anything much worse model output for cold and snow or anything wintry including frost!! We have had over 1/3 of winter gone now and the next 10-14 days is looking exceptionally zonal and mild and if anything we are not even getting cooler westerly or north westerly incursions either as frost move eastwards etc- all it is doing is becoming very mild and less mild and average followed by a return to above average temperatures.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Basically - the way things are going. If nothing cold shows up this will be one of the mildest winters on record. This January is already running at 7.0C

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

Basically - the way things are going. If nothing cold shows up this will be one of the mildest winters on record. This January is already running at 7.0C

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

January could be milder /warmer than November our Autumn month. How ironic that would be?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

The furthest ahead that any of the model output goes that we have access to is a couple of weeks (GFS). The last time I checked, we are only at the end of the first full week of January, meaning the furthest ahead that the current GFS op runs go is up to circa Jan 22nd/23rd. There is still a month or so of winter to go after that.

If someone here owns a crystal ball and can tell me for a fact that the whole period between today and February 29th (this is a leap year btw!) is going to be a continuation of what we have witnessed thus far then be my guest. Otherwise, it is all just speculation and supposition on our part, just as it would be of someone here was predicting a notable freeze occuring in that period.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter