Yes that will be the case in quite a few NW locations I would think (although by the two replies to your comment you would think you had stated that was unusual rather than just an observation of upcoming weather).

With a dominant westerly flow (as has been the case for almost all of 2020) the drier than average outlook will continue here and only the organised rain bands (not the convective showery stuff) will make it through. 

A general summary? Unsettled.

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Sums up the situation nicely Doc. With 17 putabations on the latest GFS output showing zonal flow, and 3 showing a Euroslug, I think this run just about sums up the entire winter. Yet again any tea-leaf level hints of a pattern change have proved to be a tease, and there seems no sign of QBO reversal, or any chinks of light at the end of this winter tunnel, but on a brighter note, the sun sine the, snowdrops are looking very cheery, and Spring gets more welcome with each passing year...

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I would now accept, with three weeks of February and this winter to go, that it has been desperately poor, unless one happens to enjoy neverending mild & wet weather. However, I really don't think that you, or indeed anyone else, could have known with 100% certainty back in the early days of December that it would definitely turn out this way, unless you/they happen to own the proverbial crystal ball.

It is one thing for someone to, for example, look at a number of consecutive GFS op runs and then say "I think we can write off the next couple of weeks for cold" or something like that. It is quite another though when someone decides to write off an entire season which is, IMO, based not on any evidence from the model output and almost entirely on gut feeling.

Look even at the MetO's prediction for last autumn, which they expected IIRC to have well-above average temperatures throughout the season. That prediction, as far as I recall, turned out to be a bit off the mark as far as temperatures during October and November were concerned. I'm certain that that prediction was not made on their gut feeling and they would only have been going by what their long-range models were indicating at the start of that season. The point here is that even predictions made by professional forecasters based on long-range model output can sometimes go wrong. Therefore, if forecasts by the pros based on model evidence can go awry sometime, then the same certainly applies to gut feeling predictions made by punters like us.

I think it is wise for one to never be too sure of oneself when trying to predict the weather for weeks or months in advance.

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Not to mention that spring is arriving earlier every year (due to GW) so subsequently winter is getting squeezed into a shorter and shorter space of time.

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Really? That’s not my perception. It seems to me that March has increasingly been one of the colder months in recent years. The seasons generally seem to have shifted later in my view, with summer coming in September, autumn being November to January, and winter in March!

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Yes- with regret, that is measurably the case, though season slippage due to ocean temperature changes serve to mask or enhance this very real phenominon - take vegetation growth, herbaceous plants, like primrose and cow parsley, here in the east did not emerge (on average), until early to mid March, 30 years ago, when I moved there from Sussex. Obviously - this season is exceptional, but on average it is now mid to late February for he same level of growth/ emergence in recent years. February is fast becoming the new March. 2018 was a reminder of what March was like when I was a child in the 60s. The lady bird books - what to look for in winter/ spring etc were a wonderful snapshot of a typical 50s climatic picture of middle England. The beautiful Tunicliffe illustrations that betrayed his love for the English LANs ape and countryside so well, were slightly romanticised - but were a pretty accurate portrayal of what you might expect to see. 

This is of course an amateurs anecdotal view and observations, but there is no doubt whatsoever of the change - the shortening of he winter season, and the observations from my now late farming dad, and late grandad, whose jobs depended on weather, demonstrate the difference even more starkly. This is an incredible short period in meteriological historical terms.

in conclusion - winter is therefore over !! LOL - only joking....

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Oh I'm not saying I was ever 100% certain David. Far from it. But I always expected a winter like this, based purely on past experiences. Very often (though not always, I accept), if a zonal train starts in December and the models show endless Atlantic zonality throughout the entirety of its run, you can say with *some* degree of certainty that it's most likely to verify as that. The models handle zonality with a good degree of consistency and accuracy, and at no stage really in the last three months has there been even a sniff of anything other than zonality, and predominantly Atlantic driven weather will not bring us anything other than mild, wet and windy. And so it has transpired. I take absolutely no satisfaction in this, it has been a grim winter - one of the worst I have known - with (at least for the south) ZERO chance of anything wintry.

I am hoping that 2020/21 will deliver something more akin to winter, but I am obviously not making any predictions just yet 😊😂

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Back to about the models, the 06z GFS has thankfully backed away from that nasty sting jetty Channel low for next weekend (as shown in 18z) but still maintain the windy changeable theme for most of next week (and even beyond) while ECM shows a lovely little high popping up over the UK by this time next Saturday.

In short, still that wide ranging variation between the two big boys at the 168 hr range but my gut feeling that sadly it'll be the GFS which would end up being the verified model come the moment.

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That seems to be a common perception on Twitter but the evidence doesn't really support it IMO. In the last 10 years March has only been colder than average twice.  

2019: 7.8
2018: 4.9
2017: 8.7
2016: 5.8
2015: 6.4
2014: 7.6
2013: 2.7
2012: 8.3
2011: 6.7
2010:  6.1

CET 1961 - 90 average: 5.7C.

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Mid February generally seems to signify the start of Spring as it has done for a few years here in the far south (barr obvious exceptions).

December is now an autumn month thanks to thermal lag.

Core winter is now 3 or 4 weeks in the south. The window is very small.

In a globally warming world our window of winter is shrinking and moving northwards for the UK. 

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In other words the occasional end of season snowfall is probably the norm and plays to those average figures. Where as people are expecting a gradual unhindered warming. Its usually more staggered than that.

 

To break the norm, extended severe cold brings those figures below norm ie 2018 and 2013 good indicators

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I note that despite 850Hpa's of -7c and thicknesses circa 520 dam we still manage to achieve maxes of 8 or 9c here in the far SE on Tues/Weds.

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I'm surprised that March 2010 turned out to be slightly milder than average overall. It had a wintry end to it in my part of the world and I don't recall it being an especially mild month, unlike some other Marchs we have seen since then.

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But looking at those figures it hasn’t usually been as far above average as the winter months have been, so maybe that’s why it has felt colder in the “new normal”?

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Absolutely agree - most of the 81-2010 monthly averages have shot up compared to 61-90. If March has often been close to the 'old' average then it will have felt cold in comparison. 

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this is true - but take the whole and that average must be rising, as the last 10 years are higher than the period 1960-1990.

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Jetstream expectedly very strong at the moment, weakening for the rest of the week but beware Groundhog Day; back in full strength ca 250 mph across S England next Sunday 16th, then breaking up and weakening again but a suggestion at end of run (Tue 26th) that there'll be yet another repeat.

GFS has rowed back on stormy weather this week once Ciara is through; not settled but no deep troughs close by. Then in line with jetstream LP  960mb on the Clyde Sun 16th. No clear pattern for the following week, generally pressure fairly high but bits of weak northerlies and shallow troughs intruding.

ECM likewise but has LP off W Scotland Thu 13th 980mb (GFS had this as a deep feature yesterday but minimal in this morning's forecast) and places the LP on Sun 16th deeper and further north (945mb Faeroes). 

GEFS cold to 13th, mild to 17th (average in N England & scotland), cool to 21st, anybody's guess thereafter but not looking as warm as some earlier forecasts. Wettest at first and then  13th-17th.

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excellent summary DEW...

definately a more uncertain FI - interesting model watching ahead.

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I think those areas all to the north are getting it much worse than here especially with the rain, the squall lines are tending to rush past just to the north as well, so we're a tad lucky in that respect although I'm sure some more exposed areas around here haven't faired so well. My garden has come out of it fairly well, just buckets and a few ornaments have blown over. One of the trees out the back has lost the centre of it's branches which have rested on some hawthorns, luckily saving my fence from being crushed, a job for later when the rain stops. All in all not too bad considering the widespread problems elsewhere, just hope everyone is ok.

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Look at the fax chart for the middle of next week. Years ago that would have made me sit up with the thought of that front plunging south and giving a blizzard on a straight northerly from the Arctic. Not any more though, wonder why it doesn't happen? Too much of a strong more west/ east jet this time I guess but it's years since that happened.

"The north wind doth blow and we will have snow, what will poor Robin do then, poor thing"

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The 24hr fax has a triple point moving through the Channel. Could be some heavy rain and strong winds on that?

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What you say is true. I remember in the last week of January I said, based on the charts, it couldn't be a special winter. That was because there were no hints for 10 days after that of cold and as there would only then be three weeks of winter left that would have to have been of epic proportions to make the winter memorable. Nevertheless I saved that days London 850hPa ensembles and at ten day on they aren't even vaguely close to reality. As ever there was total uncertainty but the middle of next week was generally mild or very mild, no hint of what could be the snowiest spell of the winter. I have done this exercise a few times now over the years and it has rarely been right at T+10-14 days and often it is about as opposite to the prediction it could be. So it can always give decent cold spell at more than 10 days whatever the charts say.

What we do have to accept is that climate change is kicking in and they will be less frequent anyway as the stats clearly show.

 

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Ii agree with March seeming colder but that is probably a perception based on how mild the preceding two months have generally been. All of the natural plant and tree evidence for Spring indicates that it has been getting earlier for some years and still is.

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That's a bit out of vogue isn't it? Evidence 

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This mornings GFS - the very definition of zonal flow for the foreseeable and beyond....
No sign of a pattern change. All tea leaf hints gone again for now.

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