Quite.

GFS has re-instated LP on Thursday (995 mb C England) and goes on with more LP centres on Sat 15th (935 mb Hebrides), and Sun 23rd (965 mb Shetland). For the week in between there is HP to the south and LP to the north generally, but close enough together for strong winds and/or W-ly gales at any time. ECM agreeing.

GEFS for south cool to Thu 13th.milder to 17th, then less agreement but not far from normal - if anything below that at first and above later. Wet 13th- 17th, occasional rain thereafter. Similar elsewhere; wetter in the west, cooler in Scotland, much as expected from zonal flow.

Wrt your final sentence,  we shall see what happens when the AMO returns to its negative phase; I believe from what I have read elsewhere that it is predicted to do this at some point later this decade.

That aside, I agree with your post.

Sorry for OT but just to add to the seasons are getting later nonsense here are the last 10 Aprils:

2019: 9.1
2018: 9.8
2017: 8.9
2016: 7.5
2015: 9
2014: 10.2
2013: 7.5
2012: 7.2
2011: 11.8
2010: 8.8

1961 - 90 CET 7.9C

So in the last 10 years we have had 3 Aprils which were slightly colder than average. All the others have been 0.9C or more above.

The magnolia tree in my neighbour’s garden is already budding and last year it was already in flower by March.

There have been a couple of cold March’s but overall they’ve been increasingly warm like any other month of the year. Have we forgotten the exceptional March of 2012 already?

My point was really that the traditional spring months seem to have warmed less than the winter months, making them less exceptionally mild. I don't have the time to crunch the numbers but I think DJF have probably warmed more than MA, although of course the exceptional April 2011 and Dec 2010 might spoil those stats!

Early march is the normal time for them. Regardless of how mild or cold it might be.

GFS run ending differently, an interesting occluded front stalls over the UK bringing snow to hills.

But interestingly could impact the HP to our east.  Maybe the chance of a Scandi HP to finish?  

.....update: Nope

Keep tabs on this one - Have heard a little. Anyone got more info on this.

The SW region weather forecast were sounding concerned about this coming weekend saying it could be as bad as Ciara.

My MeteoGroup app which was showing a rather miserable but uneventful weekend with steady rain is now showing 45mm of rain from late Friday to early Monday with wind gusts inland of 53mph at my location. Nowhere near as bad as yesterday wind wise but pretty grim. Flooding could become an increasing concern given there is another spell of very wet weather expected on Thursday morning.

ICON 12z just about shows the start of the storm on Saturday. The midday chart has very heavy rain across northern and western areas with snow on the Scottish mountains. 

http://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2020021012/iconeu_uk1-1-120-0.png?10-16

Centre of the low is well under 940mb albeit off to the northwest still at this point

http://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2020021012/iconeu_uk1-2-120-0.png?10-16

Does look rather ominous although plenty of time for things to change.

You might have a point there. Brian's stats point to an overall warming conclusively, but it may well be that the core winter months have warmed more than the ends. I have noticed that the Met Office prediction of cold spells increasingly likely in spring seems to have been borne out, but I would say too that we have had cold spells in November as frequently as we have had in March, when the core of the winter has been mild. 

However - over all - temperatures are warmer, weather more mobile and zonal, and window of proper winter shorter. 

Great 1 hour blizzard in North Norfolk today though, deposited a layer and chilled the air under it to 0.5 degrees. Best chance of winter weather - local, heavy showers doing just this.

The jwt won't go away! A 200mph+ streak going on now, and neatly timed to coincide with the next two weekends, the 16th across England and the 23rd across N Scotland, with some breaking up in between. Even at the end of the run Thu 27th there's a streak off Greenland which then swings south at nearly the same speed over the UK. Settled weather - blink and you've missed it!

GFS not as pessimistic - Sun 17th LP well north (935 mb Bailey) though MetO forecast brings heavy rain down to the South Coast more or less non-stop Sat & Sun (maybe a flood thread needed if this verifies) after which a rather mobile area of HP hangs around the south through to 27th. ECM agrees. FAX has  this weekend's storm at 939mb and closer to N Ireland with severe gales covering the country again.

GEFS cool at first, mild with rain 13th - 17th, then brief drop in temps after which most runs mild and dry. That's for the S; less rain in NE but temps in Scotland closer to normal throughout.

Interesting new twist on the 12z!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_240_1.png

That's got outlier written all over it?

Hopefully. 

Strong jetstream is now the norm; having just got rid of one 200+mph streak with Ciara, we now have another on Sat 15th powering storm Dennis, then again on Fri 21st and close to that figure on Mon 24th and Thu 27th, not that it goes away in between.

GFS has LP tomorrow, Dennis at the weekend (930 mb as it approaches), doesn't make much of the jet affecting the UK on 21st and 24th with LP well off to the NW then but brings in 960mb on Thu 27th followed by northerly gales. HP hanging around the south esp Thu 20th but less prominent than shown yesterday. 

ECM the same at first but makes more of the jet on Fri 21st with 945mb Shetland the following day.

GEFs ens mild and wet to 17th, cool and dry(ish) to 20th then intermittent rain and the mean temps near normal (less mild than yesterday's forecast in the S) but with plenty of variability for the cherrypickers.

ECM 240 chart kind of sums this winter up really - a strong PV, westerly flow, unsettled. More than a little depressing given it's showing the 22nd Feb. Any remember November and the comments about the disconnect between the strat and the troph meaning the PV couldn't get organised

Nearer term and GFS making a bit more of the winds Saturday down here, with a pulse of 70MPH gusts along the coast late Saturday in to early Sunday. Before that pulse there's quite a wide area in the South/Midlands that gets 60 MPH or so gusts. Scotland less windy but still some gusts of 50 or so.

There's a fair bit of rain around too and I suspect flooding will be an issue for some - there's a feeder stream/river for the Medway on my drive to work that's flooded all the fields up to the road and a few other parts I noticed were underwater again after Sundays rain. 

GFS ens do seem to have decided the exceptionally mild last 3rd or so of February is less likely, with more in the way of unsettled weather and temps fluctuating around in an unsettled flow. 

Well at least the arctic hares and ptarmigan will be breathing a temporary sigh of relief.

yes - the GFS is teasing us again...may be this time it will verify? It's all very mobile though a and the jet is in a summertime high latitude. The cool air it shows heading into Southern Europe, and N. Africa, does seem to set up a Med low, but I'll be surprised if any of this FI stuff is the same on the next run....

Still, straws are all we've had to clutch all winter...