LOL - yes agree...

Brian - I think you are safe with that top 10 bid..shame it is record for the wrong reason, but if that means one more Baden out of the way, may be next winter will bring some cheer.

Not really bothered about that in the least myself, Brian. My only hope now is that this very unsettled weather relents somewhat fairly soon and we get a much needed drier spell as we head into spring. The ground here is totally saturated as I imagine it is in many other areas too, and I suspect that even a modest amount of rain may cause some flooding issues in some places.

Agreed David we have had 5 months of above average or way above average rainfall now and as you say the ground is saturated .

Nature has a way of evening itself out so hopefully it will coincide with spring and summer this year.

Payback for 2018 and early 2019 

LOL. I don't think that the natural world works like that. We could just as easily have a coolish and wet spring and summer and a dry autumn and/or winter.

I'm sure as ever, if we do get a a few weeks of dry weather, there'll be people posting how we're in desperate need of rain again!

our country is very poor at water management and any surplus.  For a country that has a steady supply all year.  1 season drier can really impact our water stock.

Was only the other year we had an aquifer that was brimming, the following summer I was getting letters from United utilities telling me we were close to a hose pipe ban.

Incredibly mild in eastern/ north eastern Europe for pretty much the whole winter now. Surely some parts of the Baltic states, Ukraine, Belarus and Western Russia must be looking at the warmest winter on record?

Agreed about water management but how frequently do we actually have a hosepipe ban and what impact does that have on most people's lives?

Give me dry weather any time of year over wind, rain, muddy fields, footpaths and filthy and slippy cycle paths. And I'm not even mentioning flooding ....

p.s. sorry for going off topic!

I didnt say it would i said hopefully and i think we would all be happy with that ....

The jetstream doesn't know when to give up! The streak this weekend looks stronger than ever; another big one over Scotland for Sat 22nd and even a hint of 200+mph though on a reduced scale for Sun 1st Mar. What has it got about weekends?

GFS has a strong zonal flow for virtually the whole of the next two weeks; brief respites with a nose of HP poking up from the S on Wed 19th and Tue 25th. The LP centres tend to keep well to the north but with a very broad wind field, and toward the end of the period settling over Scandinavia with winds over the Uk tending to become NWly, even Nly in the east.

ECM similar

GEFS mild and wet for a couple of days, cool and dry to the 20th, little consistency amongst the different runs after that but some indication of milder to 26th, cooler later and rain intermittent in England, mor general in Scotland. Inverness has an impressive set of snow row figures, elsewhere lower and occurring only occasionally.

Good summary DEW, the average in FI is colder than much of this winter. I've a hunch that March may well be our only winter month - like someone said last week, showing March with the least impact of climate change compared to the peak winter months of Jan and Feb, which incidentally was always supposed to be a characteristic of GW for this country, warm winters and cold springs. The reversal of how I'd like it to be - but not being a Putin, a Boris (Cummins) or a Trump, I am not sure it's in my control...LOL. But yes - water  management is going to be an increasingly important political issue - as drought and deluge oscillate, but at 3 degrees above pre-industrial temps, we may be a top wine growing region...small mercies, but whether snow by then is something confined to the Scottish highlands - I am not so sure about, but winters will no longer be as fun, unless you like  gales.

Don't you just love tonight's GFS 18z ensembles. They say we'll give you a 5 day forecast - after that you're on your own 

Zonal stuff (surprise!) but with some changes. Weak ridge of HP Wed 19th*, small intense LP Tue 25th Feb (955 mb Shetland, wasn't there yesterday), the wind field for the forecast LP on Fri 28th now shown much further west so UK covered by northerlies, not just the east coast. Back to zonal stuff after that but with HP closer to the south and LP further from the north.

ECM has the Tue 25th LP quite shallow but further south (995mb Ireland)

For the S, GEFS cool after today to 21st, more definitely mild than yesterday to 26th, inclined to be cool after that but increasingly uncertain. Not specially wet; small peak agreed on 21st, dry ish to 25th, intermittent later. Wetter throughout for N and especially NW; mild spell reduced to a series of occasional mild peaks for the N incl Scotland.

Snow row figures higher than yesterday's forecast around the 27th for NE England and Scotland ( values in mid teens), even some low figures for the south.

* Edit: FAX chart shows this followed immediately by trough on Thu

Close to that now really. Only really had three or four winters with measurable snow in the last decade down here.

As I said before, snow and ice are becoming as rare as hen's teeth for southern lowland England. I pity the youth of today who won't get the chance to indulge in simple pleasures like making snowmen, sledging or snowball fights like I was able to in my youth. That was only 35 years ago! Amazing how quickly GW has changed things.

Yep as we clean the air, the climate is getting warmer, and at a faster rate. The Greta Thunberg's are partly correct we are having an effect on climate, but not the way they think.

Any chance we can leave the cyclical argument generating GW stuff out and just talk about the models, uninspiring thought they may be

GFS12z still showing a zonal flow although with enough cold air involved for some temporary interest, biased the further North you are and the higher up you are.

HP is a bit more prevalent to the south at times, suggesting we may get slightly more drier stuff down here every so often. All in all it looks like Feb will continue wet, but maybe with less of an extreme mild signal than January managed. 

Hints at the end of the run that HP may develop high enough North to bring at least a short break from the unsettled weather for more of the country, although it's deep in FI and doesn't look to stick around for long.

Here's hoping for one of those spring weather flips like we had in 2014 (I think) when it was relentlessly wet until the beginning of March after which it dried up and we had a long mild spell

What about late Feb 2018, plus the winter of 2009/10 and December 2010?

Notable cold spells have become rarer in recent times for sure, but given the right kind of pressure set-up in place, they can still and do happen, as we saw only a couple of years ago.

Non sensical.  CO2 levels are still rising.

No they are not.

CO2 emission have dropped 9% since 2005, according to EPA data.

In fact, data from the Environmental Protection Agency show that, from 1995-2015, levels of every air pollutant it monitors saw steady declines, to the point where they are at or below national standards.

Carbon monoxide levels plunged 72% over those years; nitrogen dioxide fell 45%; ozone, 24%; soot, 37%; sulfur dioxide, 73%; and lead declined 93%.

The sharp reduction in sulfur dioxide emissions "significantly reduced damage to water quality in lakes and streams, and improved the health of ecosystems and forests," according to the EPA.

Again the air is cleaner. Only three days ago scientists/so called experts have said books would have to be re-written because their theory that worlds increase mass on impacts was in fact wrong.

Do have an open mind what we are being fed could be a great lie for commercial reasons.