I don’t disagree. We have been very rational in our discussions on here. But the masses may not be. 

I often read comments after news articles on FB. You can often gauge public mood on there.

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This is also what I'm observing. Some firms are double teaming (split staff into two teams, one team wfh, one team in office on a two week rota). Others have told staff to wfh if possible. Still others have barred all external visitors from offices so that all meetings are on-line.

Trains are noticeably empty and street footfall has declined - especially in London in the evenings. Round here, the traffic is also quiet except in supermarket car parks. Ocado website was down for a while this morning. Don't know if it's back up now.

The whole way that society functions is shifting rapidly.

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We've already had a few parents keeping their children off. As cases rise I can only see the number choosing to keep their children at home increasing. 

There are rumours that even if the kids are off staff will still have to go in, but as I say that's just a rumour - that's not gone down very well! 

Where is this second wave chat coming from ?

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Localised FB probably, but for the wider FB this has to be the best news ever for trolls and WUMs.

I suggest you read this article in the Lancet. It was published on March 5th:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30129-8/fulltext

The gigantic efforts come at a cost to travel and trade, to China's economy and beyond, let alone the mental health of millions of people under lockdown. These sacrifices are being made because the memories of SARS fuel hope that containment is feasible. Whether these rigorous measures will indeed result in the same success as for SARS depends on the extent of transmissibility of subclinical cases (asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic), including the timing of peak viral shedding during the course of disease, as well as on the role of fomites and other environmental contamination in propagating transmission.

The answers to these questions will determine the success. Until those answers are known, the political and medical community needs to persist with containment efforts with the tools that are available at hand for the time being. China should be commended for its political will in implementing what might appear to be extreme measures. Undoubtedly, no other country could enact what China is currently doing. The daily decline in new cases by mid-February suggests that China is on the right path, showing that containment could be feasible. Other countries should be aware and reduce the spread of COVID-19. What is already known is that exportations to other countries need not result in rapid large-scale outbreaks, if the countries have the political will to rapidly implement early case detection, prompt isolation of ill people, comprehensive contact tracing, and immediate quarantine of all contacts. If this approach is not feasible because of widespread community transmission, then community quarantine is also needed with rigorous implementation of social distancing.

 

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Thats a valid point. The teaching workforce could actually start being impacted and therefore schools may have to close anyways

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Apparently Whitty and Vallance (key advisers to UK govt) are saying China and other countries which have contained the virus for now will suffer a devastating second wave of it. It is a key reason they are using to justify the "herd immunity" strategy the UK is now following. Wrt SARS I am pointing out that containment was possible and a second wave didn't arrive. The paper I linked to in the British Lancet medical journal discusses in-depth.

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True, but we shouldn't be too cynical, there could also be a genuine humanitarian aspect to this. And as Brian says this shows that they are confident that they have their epidemic under control for the time being.

All I will say is that COVID-19 is not SARS. Work done by German epidemioligists demonstrate that COVID-19 has a "shed rate" 1,000 times that of SARS - that means everyone who catches it, will infect others.

P.S.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/study-highlights-ease-spread-covid-19-viruses

 

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For the nth time, the EU has no jurisdiction over member states borders and it also has no say and no jurisdiction over most aspects of public health of member states. You can't have it both ways: if the EU tried to get more powers over these policy areas, there would be an outcry from Eurosceptics!

 

 

I don't rule out the humanitarian aspect. I'm sure that plays a part. But China's overseas aid programme has a mercantile element at its core - that is explicit.

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Spot on. 

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Ok , cheers Brian

God help us if there is a second wave later - we ( Teknos ) are a mainly European based company with Manufacturing plants in Denmark , Finland and Sweden , if they cant get paint to us ( Oxfordshire ) we are in real trouble 

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  Nobody is expert enough to know what is going to work best. We’re all making it up as we go along so we can’t possibly know which is the right way to do things.  So there’s no disgrace in changing tactics if it appears another solution might work better.  

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Brian have you a link to the comments from the Chief Medical and Scientific Officers stating those countries will suffer a "devastating second wave"?

These people are, and base their comments on evidence from, vastly experienced clinicians and research scientists so it would be very worrying for China.

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From the research I referenced above:

"The findings contrasted starkly with those from the 2003 outbreak of SARS in terms of viral load. "In SARS, it took 7 to 10 days after onset until peak RNA concentrations (of up to 5x105 copies per swab) were reached," the researchers wrote. "In the present study, peak concentrations were reached before day 5, and were more than 1,000 times higher.""

- there will be a second wave without mass vaccination or herd immunity.

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This sounds a dumb question BUT

When countries say they close their borders , who is that exactly to? Just holiday makers or to ALL? I'm talking haulage companies travelling across Europe to the UK?

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Lots of discussion about the "second wave". First reference I encountered from a sane source:

Then — or so the theory goes — enough people will have acquired resistance to Covid-19 to avoid a second wave of disease next autumn or winter. Downing Street believes that other countries that have taken draconian action now will be vulnerable later in the year.

https://www.ft.com/content/0475f450-654f-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68

 

 

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If you want to "panic buy", forget toilet rolls which we manufacture here and get some Spanish fruit and veg instead. If you like Spanish and Italian wine and Prosseco - get that too.

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Yes, like everything else the actions must be based on the body of evidence and not non-expert public opinion, however vocal. As the evidence changes so should the response. For the record scientific evidence is not the same as anecdotal observation of what is happening elsewhere.

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I’ve been thinking about that and have assumed that they are kept open for trade

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I would add shotgun cartridges to that list

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I'm more interested in whether we can keep or business open - not what food I can eat 

We get our paint from Vamdrup , just hope the Danes keep working eh?

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You are correct, but to be pedantic this is SARS II. The official name of the virus is Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The disease it causes is called COVID-19. The first virus (SARS-CoV) was back in 2003 and it has now been renamed SARS-CoV-1.