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Roger Parsons
14 March 2020 14:37:20


One important difference is that the Spanish flu struck the young and otherwise healthy down to a much greater extent. Obviously not much comfort for those who don’t fit that group, of course. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


But worth remembering the changed demography, Rob.


R.

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Gandalf The White
14 March 2020 14:38:58


 


All groups are at risk! It is simply that the risk is much higher in some groups than it is in others.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Everyone is at risk from something; it's about the degree of risk.  The evidence is that for the overwhelming majority this is no worse than flu and in many cases less unpleasant and quicker to pass.


Second guessing the experts isn't really helping people stay calm.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


doctormog
14 March 2020 14:39:08


'They're treating us like children': Health expert's warning over Boris Johnson's coronavirus response


..


His comments echoed those of Richard Horton, chief editor of the Lancet medical journal, who accused the government of “playing roulette with the public”.


 


https://uk.movies.yahoo.com/coronavirus-health-expert-government-response-085805630.html


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Ah yes the world’s leading expert on protecting people from infectious diseases. Don’t worry I’m sure he will come round to admit that he was wrong on this in about 12 years time.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
14 March 2020 14:39:21
I am stunned by the current NHS advice which seems to be if you have the classic symptoms stay at home and don't contact 111 or your GP unless you become seriously ill.
If you are not allowing people to report symptoms this means the number of new cases cannot even be estimated.
How can you possibly manage a public health crisis if you don't have any means of quantifying it?
The only meaningful statistics will be hospital admissions (until they become full) and the death rate - at least deaths and cause of death are still legally notifiable.
It seems to me that this policy is an admission that the situation is completely out of control.
Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Gandalf The White
14 March 2020 14:40:06


 


This has Dominic Cummings written all over it.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Sorry, but there's absolutely no basis for that - it's just the worst kind of conspiracy theory nonsense and completely unhelpful.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Brian Gaze
14 March 2020 14:41:06


I am stunned by the current NHS advice which seems to be if you have the classic symptoms stay at home and don't contact 111 or your GP unless you become seriously ill.
If you are not allowing people to report symptoms this means the number of new cases cannot even be estimated.
How can you possibly manage a public health crisis if you don't have any means of quantifying it?
The only meaningful statistics will be hospital admissions (until they become full) and the death rate - at least deaths and cause of death are still legally notifiable.
It seems to me that this policy is an admission that the situation is completely out of control.

Originally Posted by: RobN 


I suspect (no evidence to support this) it is because 111 is in danger of collapsing.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gavin D
14 March 2020 14:43:38

Sevendust
14 March 2020 14:46:24


 


Sorry, but there's absolutely no basis for that - it's just the worst kind of conspiracy theory nonsense and completely unhelpful.



Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Cummings is a sociopath but we have no idea if there is any basis for this other than speculation. Obviously some will see the loss of unprofitable older and vulnerable people as an opportunity but its a leap to suggest the government has that plan. Politically it would also be a very dangerous strategy 

Heavy Weather 2013
14 March 2020 14:46:43




Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


But how quickly do these symptoms worsen. I’m thinking of at risk groups here. Do they just stay and home and die. A lot of elderly live at home.


This one size fits all approach is very confusing. 

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Brian Gaze
14 March 2020 14:47:02

Surely it is time to replace "Happy Birthday" with "Ring a Ring o' Roses"

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
speckledjim
14 March 2020 14:47:20


 


You can play it down a bit but it does give some indication of the percentage growth rate. If it continues like this, we will be in trouble in a fortnight.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


yes but we need to look at all the numbers to get a true reflection. We did 65% more tests than the previous day and the increase in new cases was 43%

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Ulric
14 March 2020 14:48:23


If the government isn't doing everything possible to save lives it means they must have put a £ price on each life in their model/s. I wonder what that price is? 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


If it's a model (described to me many years ago) which assumes that working age people are "farmed" for rent, the value of a life is calculated on yield over remaining lifetime. The young are clearly the most valuable in this model whilst the elderly are of much less economic value because they have already contributed most of what they will in their lives. It's a fairly cold and brutal calculation.

"As soon as we abandon our own reason, and are content to rely on authority, there is no end to our troubles." - Bertrand Russell
https://postimg.cc/5XXnTCGn 
Sevendust
14 March 2020 14:49:43


Surely it is time to replace "Happy Birthday" with "Ring a Ring o' Roses"


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Clever - Maybe we should suggest it although sneezing is not a symptom


 

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
14 March 2020 14:54:17


We,re testing more and only in hospitals so the number is perfectly understandable 


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

Precisely what we were discussing this morning.  We can’t compare results from the new testing regime with the old results. If they are only testing people who are in hospital, they are testing the most likely positive cases. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Brian Gaze
14 March 2020 14:57:14

Do we know how many tests Germany has done in the last 24 hours?

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Justin W
14 March 2020 14:58:28


 


yes but we need to look at all the numbers to get a true reflection. We did 65% more tests than the previous day and the increase in new cases was 43%


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


We are testing more and it’s doubling in two days. Those are th facts.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Roger Parsons
14 March 2020 14:59:51


Clever - Maybe we should suggest it although sneezing is not a symptom


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


It wasn't the cough that carried her off....


 


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
speckledjim
14 March 2020 15:01:10


 


We are testing more and it’s doubling in two days. Those are th facts.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


never said it wasn’t 

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Heavy Weather 2013
14 March 2020 15:02:02


 


We are testing more and it’s doubling in two days. Those are th facts.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Exactly. And there is no hiding in the fact the deaths doubled overnight and that’s nothing to do with testing.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Justin W
14 March 2020 15:02:59

If the testing regime stays the same and we have the same growth rate, it will be 12,000 by the end of next weekend.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
14 March 2020 15:03:41


I am stunned by the current NHS advice which seems to be if you have the classic symptoms stay at home and don't contact 111 or your GP unless you become seriously ill.
If you are not allowing people to report symptoms this means the number of new cases cannot even be estimated.
How can you possibly manage a public health crisis if you don't have any means of quantifying it?
The only meaningful statistics will be hospital admissions (until they become full) and the death rate - at least deaths and cause of death are still legally notifiable.
It seems to me that this policy is an admission that the situation is completely out of control.

Originally Posted by: RobN 

I think the rationale behind it is if you have mild symptoms you can manage at home and NHS services can concentrate on more severe cases.  Short of testing every single person in the UK, there is absolutely no way of knowing how many cases there are.

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Justin W
14 March 2020 15:09:07

100,000 by the 29th. One suspects that HMG’s herd immunity strategy will not survive till then. Of course it may get worse in terms of the numbers given the current strategy.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Tractor Boy
14 March 2020 15:10:01
What are the Italy daily numbers looking like now? Is the rate of increase still going up?
Dave
Farndale, North York Moors
xioni2
14 March 2020 15:11:02

The more I read about our approach, the less confident I get about it. We are essentially trying to achieve herd immunity and at the same time correctly time the social distancing measures. At the same time we're not testing all suspect cases. 


This can get out of control quickly. 

Justin W
14 March 2020 15:13:58


The more I read about our approach, the less confident I get about it. We are essentially trying to achieve herd immunity and at the same time correctly time the social distancing measures. At the same time we're not testing all suspect cases. 


This can get out of control quickly. 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Yes, having been undecided I’m with you. I don’t think HMG strategy will survive this growth rate. The headlines will start to get very bad - fag packet calculations suggest a million positives by Easter at this rate. Of course they can’t actually test that many but we would be looking at an economic and social collapse.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
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