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Retron
08 April 2020 09:32:54


Pre-print warning.


The titer is highly variable.


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.30.20047365v1.full.pdf


Originally Posted by: nouska 


Fascinating report, that - thank you for digging it out!


It's quite remarkable how those over 40 have roughly three or four times as many antibodies as those under 40 do, once they've recovered.


It seems that not only is the virus milder in younger people, it provokes a weaker immune response too.


Leysdown, north Kent
xioni2
08 April 2020 09:35:21


 "Interviews and records published so far suggest that the scientific committees that advised Johnson didn't study, until mid-March, the option of the kind of stringent lockdown adopted early on in China, where the disease arose in December, and then followed by much of Europe and finally by Britain itself. The scientists' reasoning: Britons, many of them assumed, simply wouldn't accept such restrictions.


As they watched China impose its lockdown, the British scientists assumed that such drastic actions would never be acceptable in a democracy like the UK. Among those modelling the outbreak, such stringent counter-measures were not, at first, examined.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


I have to say the above is really damning for our response and it tallies with the idiotic use of the nudge behavioural unit. How a scientist doesn't model the use of quarantine in Britain, which has been shown historically to work in other countries? How could they be so sure that it wouldn't be accepted by the British people (93% now support it!)


The arrogance and the incompetence are breathtaking.


 

xioni2
08 April 2020 09:45:14

More shambles:


"Indeed, the government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, SAGE, had recommended that day (9 March), with no dissension recorded in its summary, that the UK reject a China-style lockdown. SAGE decided that "implementing a subset of measures would be ideal," according to a record of its conclusions. Tougher measures could create a "large second epidemic wave once the measures were lifted," SAGE said."


But by now, the country was rebelling. Major institutions decided to close. After players began to get infected, the professional football leagues suspended their games. As Johnson still refused to close schools and ban mass gatherings, the Daily Mirror's banner headline, summing up a widespread feeling, asked on March 13: "Is It Enough?"

Darren S
08 April 2020 09:51:34




Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Isn't this just late reporting, rather than underreporting? For example many of the deaths included in yesterday's total occurred in March. If you analyse the deaths by date of death, it will inevitably show more deaths for March than those reported, but as the curve heads downwards the opposite will be true. The reported death dates lag the actual death dates.


Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Phil G
08 April 2020 09:56:21


The anger builds here, Several second homes in the Lelant area 3 miles from St Ives have over the last couple of days become full with several cars parked outside. 
My mother in law is 83 with several under lying health conditions, one of the second homes is next door to her. 
We only have one main hospital down here which seems to be constantly on what used to be called black alert. If they are infected they will be exercising on the beach and shopping in the local supermarket, spreading the infection.


Originally Posted by: roadrunnerajn 


On this note, I wonder what happens with those who have booked a Summer week or two by the sea. Know that in Cornwall some towns swell by two/three fold with people on holiday during the peak time. We are a little way away from that period, but such travel needs to be looked at even now. Often there are gridlocks on routes down to the SW there are so many down there.


It will be bad for holiday companies, bad for the local economies down there who rely on the period Jun-Sept, but my feeling is that this year holidays even in this country should be cancelled unless we have virtually zero cases by then and can manage outbreaks on a day to day basis.

Brian Gaze
08 April 2020 10:00:13


 


On this note, I wonder what happens with those who have booked a Summer week or two by the sea. Know that in Cornwall some towns swell by two/three fold with people on holiday during the peak time. We are a little way away from that period, but such travel needs to be looked at even now. Often there are gridlocks on routes down to the SW there are so many down there.


It will be bad for holiday companies, bad for the local economies down there who rely on the period Jun-Sept, but my feeling is that this year holidays even in this country should be cancelled unless we have virtually zero cases by then and can manage outbreaks on a day to day basis.


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


Think that's right. 


We've just cancelled our summer holiday (we were going to the Baltic Coast in Poland) which was going to be in early June. At least we get the hotel deposit back by cancelling now.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Justin W
08 April 2020 10:02:11


 


Think that's right. 


We've just cancelled our summer holiday (we were going to the Baltic Coast in Poland) which was going to be in early June. At least we get the hotel deposit back by cancelling now.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Maunder Minimum
08 April 2020 10:02:35

Well, time to accentuate the positives - here is some good news from Italy (Telegraph):


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------


Italy has closed its ports to illegal migrant ships because of the coronavirus epidemic, Reuters has reported.


The government decided late last night that ports cannot be considered safe and have said that will  charity migrant boats will not be able to dock.


The decision was taken after German non-profit organisation Sea-Eye picked up some 150 people off Libya and headed towards Italy.


“For the entire duration of the national health emergency caused by the spread of the Covid-19 virus, Italian ports cannot guarantee the requisites needed to be classified and defined as a place of safety,” the decree said.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


New world order coming.
John p
08 April 2020 10:07:46


Well, time to accentuate the positives - here is some good news from Italy (Telegraph):


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------


Italy has closed its ports to illegal migrant ships because of the coronavirus epidemic, Reuters has reported.


The government decided late last night that ports cannot be considered safe and have said that will  charity migrant boats will not be able to dock.


The decision was taken after German non-profit organisation Sea-Eye picked up some 150 people off Libya and headed towards Italy.


“For the entire duration of the national health emergency caused by the spread of the Covid-19 virus, Italian ports cannot guarantee the requisites needed to be classified and defined as a place of safety,” the decree said.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Well it’s news, not sure I’d call it good news for those involved.


Camberley, Surrey
Brian Gaze
08 April 2020 10:08:49


 


 


Originally Posted by: Justin W 



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Retron
08 April 2020 10:10:56


Think that's right. 


We've just cancelled our summer holiday (we were going to the Baltic Coast in Poland) which was going to be in early June. At least we get the hotel deposit back by cancelling now.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Was it a big chain hotel? I know IHG, for example, are allowing you to cancel out to the end of June for a full refund, even on non-refundable rates.


(I've a room booked in Tokyo with them in late October - I'll be keeping an eye on that nearer the time!)


 


 


Leysdown, north Kent
Maunder Minimum
08 April 2020 10:12:20

The MSM is catching up on the religious dimension to infection rates:


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-religious-festivities-may-have-proved-deadly-to-community-rtvsqkffh


"...


With big communal events looming for the three major monotheistic religions — Passover begins tonight, Easter is this weekend and Ramadan starts on April 23 — global lockdown measures face a severe test.


The government has published no official statistics to indicate whether there is a greater prevalence of Covid-19 among any religious or ethnic minorities in Britain. However, the British Islamic Medical Association (Bima) has said that British Muslims “have certain characteristics that place us at higher risk than the general population”.


One Jewish doctor suggested that overcrowding in the ultra-Orthodox neighbourhoods of north London provided conditions “ideal for spreading infection”. Another told The Jewish Chronicle that British Jews were dying at an unprecedented rate.


The Board of Deputies of British Jews said that as of Sunday it knew of 115 Covid-19 deaths in the Jewish community, or 2.3 per cent of all UK deaths at the time. Jews make up 0.4 per cent of the UK population.


Yehudis Fletcher, founder of a Jewish counter-extremism think tank, believes that “the very culture that’s normally our biggest strength becomes our biggest weakness during a pandemic like this”.


Ms Fletcher, from Manchester, said: “I don’t know anyone who doesn’t know people who have died. I’ve been following the funerals over Zoom. There’s absolute devastation. Everyone is affected. I wake up every morning and check the family Whatsapp group to make sure there isn’t more bad news.”


Unverified claims have been made that British Muslims are also dying at a disproportionate rate. There is perceived to be a particular vulnerability because many households are home to three generations of the same family.


...


There is also concern that government advice restricting social contact was slow to permeate some neighbourhoods. On March 16 the Muslim Council of Britain issued a “strong recommendation for Muslim communities to suspend all congregational activities”. It said: “We all have a public duty to protect one another from harm.”


..."


Muslim and Jewish groups appear to be at particular risk, but no religious group is exempt if they insist on congregating to worship.


 


New world order coming.
Maunder Minimum
08 April 2020 10:14:27


 


Well it’s news, not sure I’d call it good news for those involved.


Originally Posted by: John p 


The last thing Europe needs now (if it ever did) is illegal migration. Same applies for those crossing the Channel illegally.


New world order coming.
Phil G
08 April 2020 10:14:50


Well, time to accentuate the positives - here is some good news from Italy (Telegraph):


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------


Italy has closed its ports to illegal migrant ships because of the coronavirus epidemic, Reuters has reported.


The government decided late last night that ports cannot be considered safe and have said that will  charity migrant boats will not be able to dock.


The decision was taken after German non-profit organisation Sea-Eye picked up some 150 people off Libya and headed towards Italy.


“For the entire duration of the national health emergency caused by the spread of the Covid-19 virus, Italian ports cannot guarantee the requisites needed to be classified and defined as a place of safety,” the decree said.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


It's the beginning of the 'summer season' for migrants crossing the Med. There must be some argument as to whether some of these places they are trying to get to are actually safer from where they are coming from. The boatmen would not say that though!

Brian Gaze
08 April 2020 10:16:58


 


Was it a big chain hotel? I know IHG, for example, are allowing you to cancel out to the end of June for a full refund, even on non-refundable rates.


(I've a room booked in Tokyo with them in late October - I'll be keeping an eye on that nearer the time!)


 


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Not part of the chain. TBH even if international travel is possible by June I wouldn't want to be sandwiched into a Whizz Air A320, therefore cancelling now is perfectly fine for us. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Retron
08 April 2020 10:22:05


Not part of the chain. TBH even if international travel is possible by June I wouldn't want to be sandwiched into a Whizz Air A320, therefore cancelling now is perfectly fine for us. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I'd have thought you'd have been in Club Europe on BA - that's one way to social distance. :P


(My flight is with BA out and JAL back and they're in the pointy end*, so I'm not worried about catching anything on the plane should I still be able to fly. However, I'm mentally preparing to have to put everything back a year, depending on what the situation's like. At least by then hopefully antibody tests will be available too - no worries about going out there if I've had it already!)


* - thanks to a combination of Tesco, lots of online casinos, the hotel near the wolf centre and the points from my credit card!


Leysdown, north Kent
Maunder Minimum
08 April 2020 10:22:09

Not booking a holiday anywhere at the moment. I had promised my wife we would visit Florida for her birthday next year, but that is completely off the agenda now.


 


New world order coming.
John p
08 April 2020 10:24:32

Just out of interest, how many on here know personally of someone who has, or has had a confirmed diagnosis of Covid-19?


Camberley, Surrey
Saint Snow
08 April 2020 10:27:34


 


Good.


The last thing you need at times like this is coronavirus-afflicted cats taking dumps all over the place - but I doubt many owners will comply.


(It's like a grim sweepstakes whenever I mow the lawn - how many cat turds will there be. Bonus points if I actually manage to avoid treading in the filthy stuff. It's always pissed me off that people have these "pets" and let them out to take dumps wherever they like... the answer is always "oh, it's their nature to roam". Well, yes, it's in dogs' natures to form packs and kill things, but we don't let them do that... nor should we with cats. Then again, a quarter of the country has that brain parasite, transmitted by cats, which in mice at least attracts them to cats!)


Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


Have you never tried spraying your lawn with diluted Wolf poo?



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Justin W
08 April 2020 10:29:19


Just out of interest, how many on here know personally of someone who has, or has had a confirmed diagnosis of Covid-19?


Originally Posted by: John p 


I do - a neighbour who was skiing in Northern Italy in late Feb. She went down with it as soon as she got home and was extremely ill for nearly three weeks. She still has breathing issues despite being 50, having a healthy weight and exercising regularly. Doctor told her she may have suffered permanent lung damage.


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Gandalf The White
08 April 2020 10:32:10


 


The Times says that his temperature was beginning to normalise last night. I doubt they would go into print if there wasn't evidence to support the claim.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


As I noted last night, it was being reported that his temperature was falling. That’s the clearest indicator that the body is overcoming the infection.


The pessimists will always want to try to introduce negativity & the murkier parts of Twitter will always spread baseless rumours and supposed expert opinion.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
08 April 2020 10:35:04


 


I do - a neighbour who was skiing in Northern Italy in late Feb. She went down with it as soon as she got home and was extremely ill for nearly three weeks. She still has breathing issues despite being 50, having a healthy weight and exercising regularly. Doctor told her she may have suffered permanent lung damage.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


That’s awful but sadly in line with other information I’ve seen. 


I think there’s a bit of a lack of understanding of how much long-term damage viruses can do.  There are several linked to forms of cancer, not just permanent organ damage.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Maunder Minimum
08 April 2020 10:36:11


Just out of interest, how many on here know personally of someone who has, or has had a confirmed diagnosis of Covid-19?


Originally Posted by: John p 


Our daughter's mother-in-law definitely had it, but she self isolated and later recovered, so she was never tested for it.


Other than that, I know of nobody other than those reported in the media and online forums like this one.


 


New world order coming.
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
08 April 2020 10:38:43


 


Isn't this just late reporting, rather than underreporting? For example many of the deaths included in yesterday's total occurred in March. If you analyse the deaths by date of death, it will inevitably show more deaths for March than those reported, but as the curve heads downwards the opposite will be true. The reported death dates lag the actual death dates.


Originally Posted by: Darren S 


The death rate reporting was covered at length on "More or Less" on R4 this morning.


For various reasons discussed the number of COVID-19 related deaths being reported daily is probably a factor of two out.


Assuming those inaccuracies in daily reporting are fairly consistent it's the trend that's important.


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Saint Snow
08 April 2020 10:38:49


The MSM is catching up on the religious dimension to infection rates:


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-religious-festivities-may-have-proved-deadly-to-community-rtvsqkffh


"...


With big communal events looming for the three major monotheistic religions — Passover begins tonight, Easter is this weekend and Ramadan starts on April 23 — global lockdown measures face a severe test.


The government has published no official statistics to indicate whether there is a greater prevalence of Covid-19 among any religious or ethnic minorities in Britain. However, the British Islamic Medical Association (Bima) has said that British Muslims “have certain characteristics that place us at higher risk than the general population”.


One Jewish doctor suggested that overcrowding in the ultra-Orthodox neighbourhoods of north London provided conditions “ideal for spreading infection”. Another told The Jewish Chronicle that British Jews were dying at an unprecedented rate.


The Board of Deputies of British Jews said that as of Sunday it knew of 115 Covid-19 deaths in the Jewish community, or 2.3 per cent of all UK deaths at the time. Jews make up 0.4 per cent of the UK population.


Yehudis Fletcher, founder of a Jewish counter-extremism think tank, believes that “the very culture that’s normally our biggest strength becomes our biggest weakness during a pandemic like this”.


Ms Fletcher, from Manchester, said: “I don’t know anyone who doesn’t know people who have died. I’ve been following the funerals over Zoom. There’s absolute devastation. Everyone is affected. I wake up every morning and check the family Whatsapp group to make sure there isn’t more bad news.”


Unverified claims have been made that British Muslims are also dying at a disproportionate rate. There is perceived to be a particular vulnerability because many households are home to three generations of the same family.


...


There is also concern that government advice restricting social contact was slow to permeate some neighbourhoods. On March 16 the Muslim Council of Britain issued a “strong recommendation for Muslim communities to suspend all congregational activities”. It said: “We all have a public duty to protect one another from harm.”


..."


Muslim and Jewish groups appear to be at particular risk, but no religious group is exempt if they insist on congregating to worship.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


 


 


Jews and Muslims do tend to take all that bollocks more seriously, though.


If there's one positive about Christianity it's that - away from staunch Papist countries at least - even people who consider themsleves Christians very much take a 'meh' approach to all the idiotic doctrine.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

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