theweatheroutlook

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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
10 April 2020 17:42:20


JFF model update:


There are some number problems again. Just going to use the daily figures as cumulatives do not add up. Anyway for 13543 people tested:


Model prediction: 4887


Actual: 5706



So quite a big deviation from the model today, also first time the model has significantly underestimated the number of confirmed cases. On the plus side testing has also gone up more than expected so will incoperate that into future projections.


Not going to change any parameters yet, this is only a one off. Although it is the first figure I've been concerned about. Quite a bit higher than I expected.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Heavy Weather posted earlier that 19,116 tests were carried out yesterday. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Essan
10 April 2020 17:45:06


 


I know absolutely madness , what was Matt H's answer to holding meetings that don't follow the 2 metre rule??


Originally Posted by: Gooner 



That was the one question I wanted an answer to!

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
David M Porter
10 April 2020 17:45:56


 


Even more speculation, and something I've thought about, could the wide range of effects of this virus (from nothing more than a slight temperature to death) hinge on previous exposure to the original pathogen? Maybe it isn't so much pot luck but more about partial immunity and of course comorbidities.


Originally Posted by: CreweCold 


I wonder whether where any one person who has been unfortunate enough to contract Covid-19 may have been a factor in how serious the infection has been for them on a personal level.


I could be way off base here, but I wonder whether many people here in the UK who have caught the worst of the disease are those who travelled to countries known to be affected by the disease 2-3 months ago and then returned, and people who have been in close contact with others who were in affected countries in the early part of this year.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gandalf The White
10 April 2020 17:46:38

Sky news mention the death toll and then roll straight into how the curve is flattening blah blah blah. The death toll today is horrific. They should be holding the government to account.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Mark, again, today's total is not for one day. 


Maybe that's why they're not giving it much attention and obviously, I would have thought, it does not mean the curve isn't flattening. Indeed the evidence of the key indicator supports the assertion that the curve is flattening.


 


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Brian Gaze
10 April 2020 17:48:06

UK continuing to track Italy closely.


https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-deaths-days-since-per-million?country=DEU+ITA+ESP+GBR+NOR


 


 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Brian Gaze
10 April 2020 17:49:16


 


Mark, again, today's total is not for one day. 


Maybe that's why they're not giving it much attention and obviously, I would have thought, it does not mean the curve isn't flattening. Indeed the evidence of the key indicator supports the assertion that the curve is flattening.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yes but a lot of today's deaths are not appearing in today's figures etc. This is probably the best tracker and it shows we are on a very similar trajectory to Italy.


https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-deaths-days-since-per-million?country=DEU+ITA+ESP+GBR+NOR

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Essan
10 April 2020 17:49:43


 


Even more speculation, and something I've thought about, could the wide range of effects of this virus (from nothing more than a slight temperature to death) hinge on previous exposure to the original pathogen? Maybe it isn't so much pot luck but more about partial immunity and of course comorbidities.


Originally Posted by: CreweCold 



Or, just maybe, this new virus only emerged in Wuhan in late November, only reached the UK in February, and all those millions of people who had cold symptoms at Christmas just had a normal corona virus?  

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
doctormog
10 April 2020 17:51:26




Or, just maybe, this new virus only emerged in Wuhan in late November, only reached the UK in February, and all those millions of people who had cold symptoms at Christmas just had a normal corona virus?  


Originally Posted by: Essan 


Indeed, who knows!


To be honest there is a lot of speculation and no doubt a multitude of studies (of varying quality) ongoing globally but as yet very few certainties. Time will tell what we are only able to guess at the moment. As long as people don’t jump on every hypothesis as fact and turn round and say the experts got it wrong in a few weeks time it’s okay (nd I know the majority do not do that).

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Brian Gaze
10 April 2020 17:52:08

In absolute terms this suggests we are experiencing more deaths than Italy but of course our population is slightly larger. 


 


https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2F3880627a-7a9f-11ea-af44-daa3def9ae03?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=1260


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Darren S
10 April 2020 17:55:51

Something that bothers me, is when Italy was having 800+ dying per day, it was all across the media as a disaster, Sky were running special broadcasts etc about the unfolding disaster.
We are now having numbers of deaths in the high 900’s and there is nowhere near as much mention in the media. All the talk is of Boris / the end of the lockdown.

I find it odd that the deaths in our own nation get less coverage?

Originally Posted by: John p 


Italy was affected much more badly than the U.K., or to be exact, the reason for the disaster was how much Italy’s cases were concentrated in Lombardy, and to a lesser extent, Emilia-Romagna and Veneto. There are very few cases in some areas of Southern Italy.


UK’s cases are much more widely distributed. Even though London is our hotspot, death and infection rates in Lombardy were 3-4 times worse than London.

Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Quantum
10 April 2020 17:57:00


 


Have you considered the impact of tests on NHS workers? Apparently 80% of them are coming back negative. I provided a link earlier today.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Appologies, could you post the link again?


I started incoperating number of tests a while back after it became clear 100% of testing capacity was being used.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Polar Low
10 April 2020 17:57:21

What type did I have


 


quote=Essan;1203412]




Or, just maybe, this new virus only emerged in Wuhan in late November, only reached the UK in February, and all those millions of people who had cold symptoms at Christmas just had a normal corona virus?  


Heavy Weather 2013
10 April 2020 17:57:42


In absolute terms this suggests we are experiencing more deaths than Italy but of course our population is slightly larger. 


 


https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2F3880627a-7a9f-11ea-af44-daa3def9ae03?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=1260



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Brian, have you noticed in the government briefing UK appears to be doing better than all other European countries

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Quantum
10 April 2020 17:59:51


Heavy Weather posted earlier that 19,116 tests were carried out yesterday. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Yeh but only 13k tested, some people tested twice I think.

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Heavy Weather 2013
10 April 2020 18:01:26


 


Italy was affected much more badly than the U.K., or to be exact, the reason for the disaster was how much Italy’s cases were concentrated in Lombardy, and to a lesser extent, Emilia-Romagna and Veneto. There are very few cases in some areas of Southern Italy.


UK’s cases are much more widely distributed. Even though London is our hotspot, death and infection rates in Lombardy were 3-4 times worse than London.


Originally Posted by: Darren S 


Surely how the deaths are concentrated is irrelevant. A death is a death and in the UK the death toll is horrific 


 

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Gandalf The White
10 April 2020 18:03:15


 


Yes but a lot of today's deaths are not appearing in today's figures etc. This is probably the best tracker and it shows we are on a very similar trajectory to Italy.


https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-deaths-days-since-per-million?country=DEU+ITA+ESP+GBR+NOR


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Yes, when I saw Gavin’s post that was my first thought after the initial surprise at the extent of the ‘catching up’ in today’s number.


But we would have to be missing around 85% of cases for the real figure yesterday to be anywhere near 1,000. That just seems highly improbable verging on impossible.


Is that tracker using another source for its data?

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Polar Low
10 April 2020 18:03:25

 


 


If you’re not bright enough to spot the difference between this and what you actually said there is little point in me replying.


That aside there is nothing, absolutely nothing, amusing about your post.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Heavy Weather 2013
10 April 2020 18:03:39
Did the guardian have a graph last week showing backdated deaths v reported daily deaths.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Darren S
10 April 2020 18:04:36


 


Surely how the deaths are concentrated is irrelevant. A death is a death and in the UK the death toll is horrific 


 


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


 


it was relevant in that the hospitals, undertakers, etc. in the Lombardy region couldn’t cope.


I think it’s the Covidiots, not the Government, that need to be taken to account. 

Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
John p
10 April 2020 18:19:32
If we still have so much spare capacity in ICU, why are so many people dying in care homes, rather than being admitted?
Camberley, Surrey
Essan
10 April 2020 18:21:09
This is only data for England.

So far, tbe highest number of actual daily deaths (as opposed to reported deaths) was 643 on 4th April. But the death rate "appears" to have stabilised.
Obviously figures will change and I would not read too much into this at present. It will be a week to 2 weeks before we know for sure if we have reached a peak or not (something most journalist seem incapable of understanding, albeit that should be no surprise)

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/04/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-10-April-2020.xlsx 
Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
doctormog
10 April 2020 18:21:53

If we still have so much spare capacity in ICU, why are so many people dying in care homes, rather than being admitted?

Originally Posted by: John p 


There could be many reasons. Some which would be good to know and some we have no right to know. Perhaps if they had the choice of dying in a hospital ward or what was their current home they may choose the latter. I don’t doubt the spare capacity based on the situation in the Nightingale hospitals.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
JHutch
10 April 2020 18:24:24

Did the guardian have a graph last week showing backdated deaths v reported daily deaths.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Yep, it was in this link 


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/why-what-we-think-we-know-about-the-uks-coronavirus-death-toll-is-wrong

John p
10 April 2020 18:26:21


 


There could be many reasons. Some which would be good to know and some we have no right to know. Perhaps if they had the choice of dying in a hospital ward or what was their current home they may choose the latter. I don’t doubt the spare capacity based on the situation in the Nightingale hospitals.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Indeed and just to clarify, I wasn’t implying they were lying about the spare capacity.


It was more the numbers dying in care homes I was confused about 👍

Camberley, Surrey
Polar Low
10 April 2020 18:26:48

 Latest P E report other virus doing the rounds.? Look at the big blue block lower right


https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/877617/National_influenze_report_2_April_2020_week_14.pdf


 



If we still have so much spare capacity in ICU, why are so many people dying in care homes, rather than being admitted?

Originally Posted by: John p 

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