I hope so, my model has, at times, overestimated the confirmed cases too (and for 3 days). Its just alot more worrying when it gets it wrong in the other direction. Really hoping this is just a blip and we will be back on track by tommorow.

 

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695 of the deaths announced today will have been patients who got Covid-19 before the lockdown started as they are in the period from April 1st to 9th with the full lockdown not starting until March 23rd/24th

I have just been out for a walk and was commenting that the roads are the quietest I have seen in a very long time.

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5 NHS trusts in England have now recorded 200+ deaths from Covid-19

• University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust: 394


• London North West University Healthcare NHS Trust: 263


• Royal Free London NHS Foundation Trust: 251


• King’s College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust: 234


• Barts Health NHS Trust: 220

Just been to Aylesbury and back to deliver some essentials. First time I've been on the road for 2 weeks. Aylesbury itself was busy with traffic queuing at junctions. Some pedestrians were obeying social distancing and some weren't. I thought it was perhaps like a normal Saturday from the late 1950s. (Not that I was around then). Certainly wouldn't call it a "lockdown".

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917 deaths is certainly a grim figure 

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I went for an extended perambulation (11.4 KM) this morning  really early .  No one about when I left the village, but by the time I came back from the Downs  it was bloody difficult to  maintain social distancing.    To be fair everyone  made the effort but  the volume of people out and about was  high.  The mornings are coming out  rapidly again after they buggered around with the clocks ( ).  I will shift to perambulating before work  when it gets light at 5AM to avoid the afternoon peak !

Noticed a few things as I went out.  The local barber is still  open, but you have to make an appointment.  Previously it was "rock up and wait".   The local pub is also now delivering meals.  I'm tempted to give them a go as it will take the pressure of having to buy comestibles.

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Are hospital admissions down again today?

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We popped into Royston this morning for some bread and it was really quiet. There were a few market stalls but much fewer than normal and not many people either. Roads were almost empty; I’d guess a tenth of normal levels.

Went for a 2-mile walk this afternoon and again just a handful of cars and a few people out walking.

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I think they said up to 20K. Yesterday’s data in London was incorrect and underreported.

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How does the barber stay 2 metres away? Does he have very long arms and even longer scissors? 😉

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Hospital admissions should be starting to fall now I think. The  lockdown has been in place for 3 weeks.

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Priti Patel I think is struggling. The press pack have gone after her in ways they haven’t with other ministers off the hook.

Still she didn’t deal with that apology question well.

Her answers are extremely waffly.

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I think it’s worth remembering that if everyone stayed at home then the R0 value would be very close to zero.

The point is that you don’t need anything like 100% compliance to get COVID-19 under control. It has been reported that the government didn’t expect everyone to comply and that the response has been better than they expected. Therefore we should expect the stats to reflect this shortly.

The Covid-19 app is suggesting 3-4% of the population may have or have had it: that means you’ve perhaps a worst case 1:25 chance of ‘bumping into’ someone who might be contagious. Against that a few people disregarding the social distancing rules probably doesn’t really matter in the overall picture.

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I am conscious I am getting a bit shaggy, Gandalf. I wish I'd had a skinhead cut right at the start of the pandemic - a note for next time?

Beard's a bit hefty now too.

R.

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Daily slides. Only 3 of use today. 

New cases starting to level off

Patients in hospital beds with Covid-19 is showing signs of some stabilization away from London

Uk tracking level with Italy for deaths

US appears to be racing ahead of everybody.

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Italy have reported 4,694 new cases and 619 new deaths

Both up on yesterday

• New cases +743


• New deaths + 49

Who thought it was a good idea to let Priti do one of these?

Awful creature

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Did I hear correctly that Lad Bible are asking questions at this press conference.

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This made me chuckle:

Prof Stephen Powis of NHS England says it's difficult to give a precise number on how much PPE is needed in comparison with how much is being delivered, because it varies from day to day.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52252981

 

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Oh dear, and they've had the strictest lockdown for a very long time

Was it really worth it when you consider deaths that will result from economic hardship and other health problems not getting treated

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Don't forget that she really believes that we're all lazy and stupid. Even someone as thick skinned and lacking in empathy as she is, must be starting to feel the public mood.

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That seems like a statement of fact.

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Daily breakdown of the data from PHE

UK data 

• Daily confirmed Cases -  5,234


• Total UK deaths - 9,875

English data

Top 10 Local Authorities with the highest confirmed cases

1. Birmingham: 1,712


2. Hampshire: 1,518


3. Kent: 1,374


4. Essex: 1,331


5. Lancashire: 1,314


6. Surrey: 1,310


7. Hertfordshire: 1,267


8. Sheffield: 1,137


9. Cumbria: 1,109


10. Brent: 958

Local Authorities with the fewest confirmed cases

• Rutland: 9 - No change


• Isle of Wight: 45


• North East Lincolnshire: 64


• Hartlepool: 64 - No change


• Torbay: 87


• North Lincolnshire: 91


• Herefordshire, County of: 93


• Kingston upon Hull, City of: 97


• Peterborough: 101


• Bracknell Forest: 103

Regional data

• London - 16,721 (+710)   


• Midlands - 10,368 (+664) 


• North West - 8,604 (+583) 


• North East and Yorkshire - 8,181 (+478) 


• South East - 7,872 (+568) 


• East of England - 5,302 (+430) 


• South West - 2,963 (+216) 

All changes with yesterday. Data based up to 9am today for new cases and up to 5pm yesterday for new confirmed coronavirus deaths. Not all deaths occurred in the 24hr period