The statistics show that for under 40's the mortality rate is something like 0.2%. The economy has to restart and it makes perfect sense to begin to do so with this age group. 

Whats the hospitalisation rate as well?

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Are you suggesting that we should accept Spanish flu like mortality within a much bigger population than 1920?

These stats might not be relevant if vast numbers of people are infected and the NHS gets completely swamped. The mortality rate exhibits significant temporal and spatial variability. 

 

No I am not and I think you know that. What we are doing at the moment is controlling that, every life is precious, but how many Viruses have we cured. How many do we control ?

We are in far better place than we were back then to deal with it, but we have to face the fact that we will lose people, not as many by far as the Spanish flu, but we will still lose people. This virus will eventually mutate into a milder form (lets hope it doesn't go the other way) and we will probably just have to live with it like we do with the Flu. It is not going away.

 

I am going to stop now, because thinking about what we are going to have to go through is a little depressing, but always remember, there will be a future, it may be different, but there will be a future.

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I’m not saying that we end the lockdown completely but I am saying that we need to start easing the restrictions in the next couple of weeks or so, following those countries in Europe and the Far East who have already started that process. As more and more people get the virus (which is inevitable lockdown or not) then we as a nation will begin to build immunity. I’ve thought this is the best approach for weeks now and nothing has changed to make me think otherwise. The lockdown has worked as we have mitigated the impact on the NHS so now we need to move to the next phase.

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 Matt Hancock is leading the government's daily coronavirus briefing he will be joined by Professor Chris Whitty & Professor Angela McLean

I don't have the stats but like death rate I would think it reduces significantly the younger you are. Anyone under 40 with underlying health issues should of course remain in lockdown.

Continuing lockdown for the whole of society is going to cause huge problems in many areas. Moving out of lockdown with the age group least at risk is the best way forward I can see along with testing and tracing.

In fact has anyone got Sunak's number?

2,657 critical care beds available. A new record.

19,529 in hospital with Covid-19 down from 19,706 yesterday

19,500 are currently hospitalised

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Also I don't want to offend anyone, these are purely my opinions (I am feeling bad as it looked like I was going for Nick, (Your PM is full), I wasn't).

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Matt Hancock is talking about badges for Social Care.

Nice, but why is this only a thing now. Let’s get the testing sorted first as well as the PPE.

This feels like gimmick to detract from the serious Social Care issues. My mum works in care and has been underpaid and under appreciate for years for the job she has to do.

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I suppose the dead are freeing up beds!

Daily slides

Transport remains down

Cases levelling off

Patients in hospital beds is down 1% nationally and 5% in London

Deaths remain unchanged with previous days

4000 social cares have been ‘referred’ for testing.

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Sadly if people die there is some extra capacity, it's an unfortunate fact, but equally people who recover from the virus free up beds, and then of course if fewer people that are diagnosed don't require ICU , that also adds to capacity. 

Sorry to put a positive spin on your post.  

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Here's a good article on immunity.  I would say we'd be very unlucky if this coronavirus behaved like HIV.  The best educated guess at the moment is most people will have a decent immunity for a year or so like SARS.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-14/do-coronavirus-survivors-have-immunity-from-reinfection-maybe&ved=2ahUKEwiQi5aW6uroAhVuThUIHX-fCF8QFjAAegQIAxAB&usg=AOvVaw1bbo5c6BI-f3jhBHfP3H-U

 

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Professor Chris Whitty suggesting deaths my rise tomorrow due to the longer lag from the holiday weekend

Professor Chris Whitty: "we are probably reaching the peak overall"

Matt Hancock has said over the last few days not enough people presented to be tested despite the capacity.

Why do I get the feeling this statement might come back to haunt him.

He still didn’t address why the capacity is not ramping up quickly to the 100k

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He also says a high number of deaths will continue for a short while and that " we are not yet at the point where we can say confidently this is now past the peak "

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So at present we are testing people who are hospitalised and NHS staff. You can't test all NHS staff at the same time, so you could have capacity to test 50k, but if only 4k are hospitalised and 4k of NHS present themselves for testing, then you are only going to test 8k.

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We are still fascinated with knowing what the out strategy is , give it time , this is one of the most precarious and complicated situations a government has had to deal with  in years and years 

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The German lockdown will be eased from Monday 4th May

• Schools to reopen from May 4th


• Masks are recommended in German shops and on public transport


• All major events are banned until the end of August