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llamedos
15 April 2020 13:30:44


 



But if we assume the numbers are genuine, perhaps we are really on the down slope and we might get a date for ending the lockdown at the meeting tomorrow


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

The numbers are, if as you say genuine, encouraging. I see no hope though, of an end date being mentioned in tomorrow's announcement of the extension period do you?


"Life with the Lions"

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xioni2
15 April 2020 13:33:31

Breaking: NHS England announce 651 new deaths

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


I am not sure I understand why people were expecting a high number today. 2-day weekends were followed by a high number on Tuesday, a 4-day weekend is more likely to be followed by a high number on Thursday? 


I still expect a number well above 1000 tomorrow.


Just ~reasonable guessing of course.

Gavin D
15 April 2020 13:39:54
11,170 tests

4,605 confirmed as positive including key workers

Confirmed rate is 41.23%.
Gavin D
15 April 2020 13:41:24
761 deaths in the UK according to Department of Health and Social Care
John p
15 April 2020 13:41:33

Once again the Dept of Health UK total is lower than the sums of England, Scotland, Wales, NI (761 vs 801).

Has this ever been explained?


Camberley, Surrey
Heavy Weather 2013
15 April 2020 13:41:50
Only 15.9 Tests conducted yesterday.

DHSC have just tweeted that 761 UK patients have died.

Can anyone explain why the totals are different to what you get if you add the numbers up regarding what has been a announced already today?


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Gooner
15 April 2020 13:42:28


 


 Well down. That's caught a few people on the hop. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I'm very surprised but surely its the numbers tested and those positive that count along with admissions??


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gavin D
15 April 2020 13:43:07

761 new deaths in the UK down slightly from 778 yesterday.


John p
15 April 2020 13:46:42

Only 15.9 Tests conducted yesterday.

DHSC have just tweeted that 761 UK patients have died.

Can anyone explain why the totals are different to what you get if you add the numbers up regarding what has been a announced already today?

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


I’ve just read the theory is they strip out the non hospital deaths from Scot / NI.


Seems a bit odd, if the data is available, why not include it?


Camberley, Surrey
SJV
15 April 2020 14:03:26


 


Totally agree John. 


It can’t be that hard for PHE to do. I suspect we may have already supposed that daily 1000 figure


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Yes I'm happy (and surprised) to see a lower figure for today but it's hard to feel too optimistic given the total clusterfudge that is our daily stats.


Part of me genuinely thinks our daily figures are being carefully  massaged for the benefit of the public's mental health so we don't pass the unwelcome 1000 milestone. 

noodle doodle
15 April 2020 14:08:12


 


I’ve just read the theory is they strip out the non hospital deaths from Scot / NI.


Seems a bit odd, if the data is available, why not include it?


Originally Posted by: John p 


 


It can't be that as Scotland only reports hospital deaths daily - that's why they got a big jump in the total when they added in care home deaths


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52292001


"The NRS figures provide a wider picture of the impact of the virus on Scotland than the Health Protection Scotland statistics which are announced each day.


The HPS figures, which only reflect cases in hospitals where a positive test has been recorded, placed the death toll at 566 on 12 April."

howham
15 April 2020 14:09:22


 


Whats happening in Venezuela? I assume a massive cover up


I've heard about Brazil, but not Argentina


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Argentina took this seriously and locked down before the UK.  Brazil on the other hand has a clown in charge.

Heavy Weather 2013
15 April 2020 14:11:08


 


Yes I'm happy (and surprised) to see a lower figure for today but it's hard to feel too optimistic given the total clusterfudge that is our daily stats.


Part of me genuinely thinks our daily figures are being carefully  massaged for the benefit of the public's mental health so we don't pass the unwelcome 1000 milestone. 


Originally Posted by: SJV 


I have to say I agree. Our stats have been a shambles from the start. Changes in timings, and how we measure has made it difficult to follow.


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
noodle doodle
15 April 2020 14:11:17


 


Yes I'm happy (and surprised) to see a lower figure for today but it's hard to feel too optimistic given the total clusterfudge that is our daily stats.


Part of me genuinely thinks our daily figures are being carefully  massaged for the benefit of the public's mental health so we don't pass the unwelcome 1000 milestone. 


Originally Posted by: SJV 


 


I think it's just a manpower / bureaucracy issue. Only certain people can officially declare a cause of death (rather than declare death itself), and the test itself will take time and the official recording will need someone else. That makes a bottleneck above which the number of official deaths can't go


Obviously if the death toll tomorrow is 3,000 I'm talking out my rolf harris

llamedos
15 April 2020 14:11:28


 


Yes I'm happy (and surprised) to see a lower figure for today but it's hard to feel too optimistic given the total clusterfudge that is our daily stats.


Part of me genuinely thinks our daily figures are being carefully  massaged for the benefit of the public's mental health so we don't pass the unwelcome 1000 milestone


Originally Posted by: SJV 

You may well be right, although the flip side might be to initially overstate the figures and then demonstrate how well things are being managed with the restrictions.


 


"Life with the Lions"

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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
15 April 2020 14:22:05


You may well be right, although the flip side might be to initially overstate the figures and then demonstrate how well things are being managed with the restrictions.


 


Originally Posted by: llamedos 

  I wonder if that’s why they recently started to state the dates the deaths occurred, rather than just when they were reported.  It’s clear from those stats that they are still reporting deaths from up three weeks ago. 


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llamedos
15 April 2020 14:23:21

My hope is that at today's Daily Briefing, however "encouraging" these raw figures appear to be, there's no "haven't we done well" statements. There have obviously been a lot of failings and we haven't any evidence to suggest "we've turned the corner" either.


Keep it simple and say the measures seem as if they may be working, but it's too early to tell. Answer questions about protective measures for care home workers and front line NHS staff directly and finally don't get into lengthy exchanges with journalists desperate to tell an invented exclusive on tomorrow's front page.  


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Brian Gaze
15 April 2020 14:23:49

11,170 tests

4,605 confirmed as positive including key workers

Confirmed rate is 41.23%.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Be interesting to see how this fits into Q's model if he's around. Gut feel is the high number of positives and relatively low number of tests is a concern.


Brian Gaze
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John p
15 April 2020 14:26:07


Part of me genuinely thinks our daily figures are being carefully  massaged for the benefit of the public's mental health so we don't pass the unwelcome 1000 milestone. 


Originally Posted by: SJV 




Well I didn’t want to be the first to say it, but that thought had crossed my mind. They can give us any figures they like and we’d never be able to tell the difference. 
We’ll only get the true story in a public inquiry in 5 years time!


Camberley, Surrey
Northern Sky
15 April 2020 14:34:24

I've just got home from work and it's the first drive out I've had in a couple of weeks. I was quite surprised by the increase in both traffic and the number of people out and about. Driving through Headingley on the way home there were loads of people about, many of them in groups and mostly young people.


It did make me wonder if we should lift the lockdown by age range - the under 30's first and let them crack on with building some herd immunity. Then the under 40's and so on. 

NickR
15 April 2020 14:37:35


I've just got home from work and it's the first drive out I've had in a couple of weeks. I was quite surprised by the increase in both traffic and the number of people out and about. Driving through Headingley on the way home there were loads of people about, many of them in groups and mostly young people.


It did make me wonder if we should lift the lockdown by age range - the under 30's first and let them crack on with building some herd immunity. Then the under 40's and so on. 


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


Why and how should herd immunity be the policy when we don't even know if having had the virus gives you immunity and, if it does, how long it lasts for?


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Northern Sky
15 April 2020 14:42:25


 


Why and how should herd immunity be the policy when we don't even know if having had the virus gives you immunity and, if it does, how long it lasts for?


Originally Posted by: NickR 


Well we don't know that it doesn't give you immunity either. In any case the lockdown can't continue indefinitely, it makes sense to allow the age group least in danger from the virus to be the first to begin restarting the economy - and it may be that herd immunity is a by product of that.

Saint Snow
15 April 2020 14:43:05


I've just got home from work and it's the first drive out I've had in a couple of weeks. I was quite surprised by the increase in both traffic and the number of people out and about. Driving through Headingley on the way home there were loads of people about, many of them in groups and mostly young people.


It did make me wonder if we should lift the lockdown by age range - the under 30's first and let them crack on with building some herd immunity. Then the under 40's and so on. 


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


 


On Easter Monday, I saw two separate groups of teenagers/young adults congregated. It actually made my blood boil at the time.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
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Aneurin Bevan
Gooner
15 April 2020 14:46:17





Well I didn’t want to be the first to say it, but that thought had crossed my mind. They can give us any figures they like and we’d never be able to tell the difference. 
We’ll only get the true story in a public inquiry in 5 years time!


Originally Posted by: John p 


Exactly right , we probably will never see the 1,000 deaths reported , that really wouldn't go down well


And yes, we don't have a clue really just how many 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


warrenb
15 April 2020 14:48:38


 


Why and how should herd immunity be the policy when we don't even know if having had the virus gives you immunity and, if it does, how long it lasts for?


Originally Posted by: NickR 


Are we supposed to be locked down indefinitely. Herd Immunity is the way out of this, as after catching it, you have antibodies for a while, but the body also makes a copy of this antibody and stores it away for later use, so if you do get it again, then this should be a far milder version.


There is no getting away from the fact that unless we all shut ourselves away for 3 to 4 weeks completely and I mean completely no going out at all, this is not going away.


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