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NickR
15 April 2020 14:55:34


 


Are we supposed to be locked down indefinitely. Herd Immunity is the way out of this, as after catching it, you have antibodies for a while, but the body also makes a copy of this antibody and stores it away for later use, so if you do get it again, then this should be a far milder version.


Originally Posted by: warrenb 


Sorry, but that is guesswork. Doubt is currently being cast very strongly on those assumptions by those involved on the frontline of research.


 



There is no getting away from the fact that unless we all shut ourselves away for 3 to 4 weeks completely and I mean completely no going out at all, this is not going away.


Originally Posted by: warrenb 


That is impossible, so isn't an option.


SK is the model. They didn't shut down.


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Gavin D
15 April 2020 14:58:22
The 651 patients in England were aged between 20 and 101

20 aged between 20 & 101 had no known underlying health conditions when they tested positive for coronavirus
warrenb
15 April 2020 15:08:11


 


Sorry, but that is guesswork. Doubt is currently being cast very strongly on those assumptions by those involved on the frontline of research.


 


 


That is impossible, so isn't an option.


SK is the model. They didn't shut down.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


It is not guesswork, but fact. Also stating that SK is the way forward, would pointing out that your first argument is being raised by events in said SK.


Retron
15 April 2020 15:13:02


It is not guesswork, but fact.


Originally Posted by: warrenb 


Indeed. It's a coronavirus and all other coronaviruses - including SARSv1 - cause immunity to be developed for a while after infection. This isn't some wacky alien thing, it's a variant of what we already have.


As such, science would say that you start by assuming it behaves in a similar way to what we know already. You then test, test, test!


 


Leysdown, north Kent
NickR
15 April 2020 15:13:34


 


It is not guesswork, but fact. Also stating that SK is the way forward, would pointing out that your first argument is being raised by events in said SK.


Originally Posted by: warrenb 


Could you point me to the study that shows those who have had covid-19, including "mild" cases, have immunity afterwards and that this lasts several months at least, if not a year or more?


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
speckledjim
15 April 2020 15:15:28


 


Are we supposed to be locked down indefinitely. Herd Immunity is the way out of this, as after catching it, you have antibodies for a while, but the body also makes a copy of this antibody and stores it away for later use, so if you do get it again, then this should be a far milder version.


There is no getting away from the fact that unless we all shut ourselves away for 3 to 4 weeks completely and I mean completely no going out at all, this is not going away.


Originally Posted by: warrenb 


True, all we can do is smooth the curve. The virus is here to stay so herd immunity is the only option until we have a viable vaccine 


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
NickR
15 April 2020 15:15:40


 


Indeed. It's a coronavirus and all other coronaviruses - including SARSv1 - cause immunity to be developed for a while after infection. This isn't some wacky alien thing, it's a variant of what we already have.


As such, science would say that you start by assuming it behaves in a similar way to what we know already. You then test, test, test!


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


A lot of assumptions there. Research is currently suggesting covid-19 might work more like HIV, and that the question of people who've had it - especially mild cases - having immunity for any significant period is very much yet to be determined.


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
warrenb
15 April 2020 15:16:37


 


Could you point me to the study that shows those who have had covid-19, including "mild" cases, have immunity afterwards and that this lasts several months at least, if not a year or more?


Originally Posted by: NickR 


I am not going to rise to this.


I don't have time machine, but as Darren states above this is common knowledge of Coronaviruses.


 


OK I shall bite a bit, do we literally trawl the internet for the worst case scenario, and treat it as fact. It is research, it is ongoing research, and as with all research it can be right or wrong. It is not fact.


NickR
15 April 2020 15:18:28


 


True, all we can do is smooth the curve. The virus is here to stay so herd immunity is the only option until we have a viable vaccine 


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


This is just wrong. With serious doubt over - and certainly no proof of - immunity following having the virus, the only option is suppress, and then massive testing and tracing as SK have done, prior to a vaccine being brought in that DOES grant herd immunity. It's insane to base a strategy on accepting a load of deaths because you're crossing your fingers that you are immune for at least a lengthy period once you've had this thing.


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
NickR
15 April 2020 15:20:23


 


I am not going to rise to this.


I don't have time machine, but as Darren states above this is common knowledge of Coronaviruses.


Originally Posted by: warrenb 


Don't need a time machine, just the ability to look up and read the current research actually taking place on this specific virus. Surely that is more value that past research on different viruses. I'm basing what I'm saying on the former.


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Roger Parsons
15 April 2020 15:21:18


 That just about covers all facets of the Tory Party.


 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


You need one more P, Saint, the Prey - that's me and thee. Then the line-up is complete. R.


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Gandalf The White
15 April 2020 15:23:07


 


A lot of assumptions there. Research is currently suggesting covid-19 might work more like HIV, and that the question of people who've had it - especially mild cases - having immunity for any significant period is very much yet to be determined.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


If it’s the research Brian mentioned yesterday then, no, it isn’t like HIV.  SARS-Cov2 can kill a T-cell but cannot take it over and reproduce.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


speckledjim
15 April 2020 15:24:34
We are suppressing it via the restrictions but they will be relaxed soon enough and as long as the NHS can handle any increase in demand then great. Meanwhile the virus will continue to spread and we will gradually achieve more and more immunity. As long as those in the vulnerable groups are shielded then we should be able to manage fine until a vaccine is available.
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
warrenb
15 April 2020 15:28:35


 


Don't need a time machine, just the ability to look up and read the current research actually taking place on this specific virus. Surely that is more value that past research on different viruses. I'm basing what I'm saying on the former.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


One piece of research, which is not yet peer reviewed and may be right and maybe wrong. I can't believe people cannot face the fact of this, and that is the only protection from this other than a vaccine (which may have to change every year and be given to the entire population of an annual basis), and I know it sounds horrible, but is to let enough people catch it (and we will lose people) that we build herd immunity.


 


What stopped Spanish flu. Enough people got it (and we lost a lot of them) that we got herd immunity until it mutated into a milder form. It isn't rocket science.


Viruses in nature (animal kingdom) don't just disappear, they go through the same process we are at the moment. Less the Vaccine option.


Roger Parsons
15 April 2020 15:32:01

We are suppressing it via the restrictions but they will be relaxed soon enough and as long as the NHS can handle any increase in demand then great. Meanwhile the virus will continue to spread and we will gradually achieve more and more immunity. As long as those in the vulnerable groups are shielded then we should be able to manage fine until a vaccine is available.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Looks good on paper, SJ. That's the plan - but if we misjudge the timing or the extent of human cooperation if could be a somewhat different outcome. I won't ask if you want to bet on it, I'll just hope you are right.


Roger


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Sevendust
15 April 2020 15:34:40


 


One piece of research, which is not yet peer reviewed and may be right and maybe wrong. I can't believe people cannot face the fact of this, and that is the only protection from this other than a vaccine (which may have to change every year and be given to the entire population of an annual basis), and I know it sounds horrible, but is to let enough people catch it (and we will lose people) that we build herd immunity.


 


What stopped Spanish flu. Enough people got it (and we lost a lot of them) that we got herd immunity until it mutated into a milder form. It isn't rocket science.


Viruses in nature (animal kingdom) don't just disappear, they go through the same process we are at the moment. Less the Vaccine option.


Originally Posted by: warrenb 


Herd immunity, for a period of time most likely, will be happening anyway. Unless the virus mutates/weakens we will get waves of infection. This is why social distancing must be maintained, at least for a lengthy period, irrespective of lock down measures being lifted

speckledjim
15 April 2020 15:35:19


 


Looks good on paper, SJ. That's the plan - but if we misjudge the timing or the extent of human cooperation if could be a somewhat different outcome. I won't ask if you want to bet on it, I'll just hope you are right.


Roger


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


No betting from me and I don’t envy the governments of the world who must make these decisions. 


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
westv
15 April 2020 15:37:58

NI "lockdown" extended to 9/5.


Expect rest of UK to follow.


At least it will be mild!
Sevendust
15 April 2020 15:39:00


 


No betting from me and I don’t envy the governments of the world who must make these decisions. 


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Shops and some businesses should reopen next month but distancing should remain. The virus will still be there but would spread slower. It should also be possible to distance in eateries if tables were spread further apart. Not what many places would like but at least they would be able to do some trade

warrenb
15 April 2020 15:39:17


 


Herd immunity, for a period of time most likely, will be happening anyway. Unless the virus mutates/weakens we will get waves of infection. This is why social distancing must be maintained, at least for a lengthy period, irrespective of lock down measures being lifted


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


I agree, it is like opening and closing the sluice gates during a flood. You have to time it right and control it.


you can test and trace as much as you like, but if you have vulnerable people within your population it will not go away.


All we are doing at the moment is controlling the spread so that the NHS can cope, in no way what we are doing at the moment will wipe it out. This is why our alleged lockdown is looser than most other countries. The scientists could see the spike coming and flattened it with this semi lockdown. Slowly it will be lifted (although I suspect people that can work at home will be doing so for some considerable time), then on occasion reimposed and so on.


 


To be brutally honest, I suspect we locked down when we did to purely build up the NHS to cope with what is coming and to able to continue operating.


Sevendust
15 April 2020 15:40:11


NI "lockdown" extended to 9/5.


Expect rest of UK to follow.


Originally Posted by: westv 


Out to the Bank Holiday so makes sense

Gavin D
15 April 2020 15:40:57
The British Horseracing Authority have announced the suspension of racing is extended 'until further notice'
Brian Gaze
15 April 2020 15:42:58


NI "lockdown" extended to 9/5.


Expect rest of UK to follow.


Originally Posted by: westv 


 Excellent news. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Heavy Weather 2013
15 April 2020 15:43:02


 


True, all we can do is smooth the curve. The virus is here to stay so herd immunity is the only option until we have a viable vaccine 


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


I can’t believe your peddling this herd immunity nonsense again. Why?


The data suggests it’s not just the most vunerable or people with underlying conditions that die. 


Equally, lots of people through herd immunity will get sick and will require a hospital. How do you suggest we would manage that. 


I miss my normal life, my friends and my family. But hell, I’d rather put up with this they cause anyone’s early demise. 


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
xioni2
15 April 2020 15:44:57


This is just wrong. With serious doubt over - and certainly no proof of - immunity following having the virus, the only option is suppress, and then massive testing and tracing as SK have done, prior to a vaccine being brought in that DOES grant herd immunity. It's insane to base a strategy on accepting a load of deaths because you're crossing your fingers that you are immune for at least a lengthy period once you've had this thing.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


This is so spot on and I can't believe that we are still talking about herd immunisation without a vaccine.


1) How do you manage this if the vast majority of the population hasn't been infected yet?


2) what threshold of deaths are we supposed to accept? 


So many experts keep saying that the key is mass testing, tracing and isolation at the end of the lock down. That's not easy, but it's by far the cheapest way forward! 

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