Jetstream - A more or less W-E flow across the UK for the rest of this week before loops develop, over the N Sea Sat 10th with N-ly across UK with the loop moving off to the Med as a cut-off by Tue 13th. By that time jet is fragmented around the UK until new loop develops on Atlantic Sat 17th with benefit of S-ly flow before forming a cut-off over Ireland Tue 20th, this time broadening out rather than moving away Thu 22nd. Another big loop waiting over Greenland then.
FAX shows detail of what other forecasts agree on, namely that the wave tomorrow Thu will deepen and run across C England but more intense so rain affects all areas to the S. Any wave on Friday passing through quickly on the following NW-ly.
GFS - has recanted from yesterday and shows more interest in a ridge of HP in the Atlantic hanging on and sometimes properly across the UK but being nibbled at all the time, first LP over SE/Low Countries Tue/Wed 13th/14th (cf ECM yesterday) then Atlantic LP W of Ireland Sat 17th with centres at various times from SW Approaches to Hebrides during the following week.
GEFS - like yesterday, average temp and wet in the S now, becoming cool everywhere and slowly recovering to norm by Mon 19 Oct (slower recovery than yesterday and plenty of variation between runs). Brief dry period around Sun 11th after which frequent but not intensive rain throughout. In the N cool and dry now but back to norm sooner (Tue 13th) and dry period briefer, some bigger rainfall totals in some runs thereafter.
ECM - like GFS (but GFS has caught up with ECM rather than leading it)
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Chichester 12m asl