Chart of the Day!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/5226/gfs-1-360_bdt6.png

(This morning's GFS delivers a textbook easterly with heavy snow and -12C 850s down here. Of course, it'll be gone in the next run, but nice to see nonetheless. Given that the verification date on that chart is the 18th November, that has to be amongst the coldest charts I've seen, real or imaginary, for that time of year. The closest I can think of offhand would be the snowy spell around November 23rd 1993.)

I knew as soon as I looked at GFS that you’d have the first post of the day in this thread. As you say wonderful chart.

What is becoming clear, that high pressure will build in across the UK. That’s nailed.

The question is where it goes next, I’m pleased as a number of successive runs have taken it up towards scandy.

As we know, November can deliver in terms of cold and snow. Let’s hope we have something early.

What chance does a general review have against Darren's Chart of the Day? (and I do remember being in East Anglia one November half term with snow showers and snow just about lying - early 70s)

To throw cold water (or possibly some sleet) on the idea, just a reminder that snow cover in Eurasia is still a distance off ATM https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif Don't get too carried away!

GFS: HP moving across UK later this week to Poland 1035mb Sat 7th and staying E Europe/Scandi to Sat 14th while UK is on the fringe of that and Atlantic LP, the latter closer than yesterday's forecast esp Wed 11th (BBC was suggesting unsettled weather about this time), By Mon 16th the Atlantic has receded and the Hp now 1050mb is ridging across UK with a strong E-ly developing and some cold air being imported. By Thu 17th the E-ly source has been cut off as the HP retrogresses to be over Scotland  1045 mb

GEFS: Milder for  a few days from Fri 6th, most runs then returning to seasonal norm (the op is a spectacularly cols outlier, 13C below norm on Fri 18th). Some rain about from Sun 8th but nothing consistent, will probably depend on how hard the Atlantic pushes against the Scandi HP. Snow row figures for E coast locations not above 2.

ECM: same as GFS out to 240h. 

I always used to regard mid-November as something of a watershed; for lowland England before that wintry weather was nigh on unheard of.

The mildly encouraging aspect of the recent runs is the recurring theme of strong WAA in the vicinity of the British Isles.  A long way out still but it does suggest a pattern change is afoot.

That really is an incredible end to the gfs 0z.  Whether its noise or something more substantial who knows. I'm in two minds about this winter obviously love cold and snow but we need a mild boring winter really.

Last winter was mild and boring 😴  

The trouble is in these days of GW, Easterlies don't seem to deliver the cold punch they used to.

The last two have been. Barely a flake here since the beast from the east March 18. Sods law this winter will be very cold and compound the NHS's problems. 

GFS FI continuing to introduce interest... in marches the cold easterly into eastern Europe...

The last proper easterly was in Feb/March 2005...

(I did a long post a few years back about the death of the midwinter easterly. Nothing's changed since then, either.)

Nowhere near as good as the eye candy retron posted this morning with -12C uppers over central/ southern England 

Between the GFS ensemble mean and tonight's ECM op there's a remarkably strong signal for a strong upper and surface high pressure over Scandinavia by around Day 7-8.

Here's the Day 9 SLP/500 hPa chart:

ECM Day 10 850hpa chart:

That block of very cold air is heading slowly but steadily westwards.

An interesting set of runs today.  Eye brow raised but no more than that at an early stage good to see eye candy potential.  

Missed this morning's output.  Only just coming out of summer hibernation!  

Yeah,although I note ECM is continuously teasing it at T240 i.e. pushing back every run.  

The transition from ECM 120

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_120_1.png

to ECM 144

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

seems a little radical with WAA heading north out the Euro high on what appears to be very weak LP to the west driving it. 

Whilst the GEFS mean remains above average as it does out into FI then I'll not get excited

There is always "potential" but without consistency it doesn't float the boat 

Jetstream: Loop currently over UK collapses S-wards leaving the UK between its remnant and the main stream to the N by fri 6th. S-ward dipping loop develops mid-Atlantic Wed 11th and replaced by another one Sun 15th but neither directly affecting the UK. The main stream then runs S of the UK but getting quite close Fri 20th.

GFS: HP moves from Azores across UK and into Poland 1030mb Sat 7th with LP to SW of UK. Pressure flattens out in the W Europe/ N Atlantic region but then later UK sandwiched HP back over Scandi Wed 11th with deep low off W Ireland which situation sticks around on and off until the Atlantic moves in towards southern UK Thu 19th. No sign of yesterday's easterlies.

GEFS: cool at first, mild for a while around Sun 8th, then most runs close to seasonal norm to Fri 19th, one or two spectacularly cold outliers at the end. Dry at first, a few indications or rain next week, then more runs than yesterday with rain in from Sun 15th. 

ECM: Similar to GFS out to Sat 14th.