theweatheroutlook

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Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
28 January 2021 17:04:00

It’s funny how summer heat waves just stick and never get pushed back.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Not here they don't!

Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Ally Pally Snowman
28 January 2021 17:06:22

Well it's another easterly from the GFS but how cold , how long lasting  and how much snow is still unknown. 


GEM appears to be stuck as well

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Arbroath 1320
28 January 2021 17:11:24


 


Well I guess that would be pretty normal but at least it isn't a wishy washy marginal set up so if it does ........


 


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


On the positive side, the GFS 12z Op doesn't have much support at all from it's ENS at 180z in developing the Azores/Arctic ridge.

GGTTH
squish
28 January 2021 17:11:30
Parallel is very good .
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
hobensotwo
28 January 2021 17:16:07
Op ends on the cusp of something amazing.. The cold pool to the East at t384 is vast.
Ally Pally Snowman
28 January 2021 17:16:11

Parallel is very good .

Originally Posted by: squish 


 


850s are poor though.  


I noticed the ECM De Bilt temp graph had only limited support  for decent cold so caution required at the moment. 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
CField
28 January 2021 17:24:11

Be nice to get a bit of dry weather regardless mild or very cold,  this winter hasnt played ball for very cold weather to me so expecting complications....

Favourite snowstorm
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Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
ballamar
28 January 2021 17:37:44
ECM will be interesting if it sinks some sub -10 by next weekend and subsequently what happens with the pressure system in the Atlantic and if it slides or attempts to sink the high. Sliding I think is most likely
Justin W
28 January 2021 18:10:57

Another spell with t1ts up written all over it.


 


sorry... I’ll get me coat


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Rob K
28 January 2021 18:20:58
Generally less good 12Z output with the first signs of the cold which had been consistently due to arrive 4th/5th Feb (if it did) being pushed back.

GEFS a good couple of degrees less cold, we got to a mean of -7C in London on the last run but only -5C at best this time.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
28 January 2021 18:22:55
https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2021012812/gem-1-240.png?12 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
doctormog
28 January 2021 18:30:17
To be honest the cold is never that far away and the changes are not that big. However on the ground in real world weather it could make the difference between cold rain and snow (or cool rain and cold rain in some parts).

If anyone is keeping an eye on this observation, the -10°C t850hPa count, on the 12z suite it is still a notably high 27.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Brian Gaze
28 January 2021 18:37:46

Round and round we go...


 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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fairweather
28 January 2021 18:48:22

Generally less good 12Z output with the first signs of the cold which had been consistently due to arrive 4th/5th Feb (if it did) being pushed back.

GEFS a good couple of degrees less cold, we got to a mean of -7C in London on the last run but only -5C at best this time.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


The 12z is an excellent example of where the average can become meaningless. It splits into a mild cluster and a cold cluster. The mean becomes pretty pointless as there is barely a pertubation that can provide the solution where the mean goes!

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Nick Gilly
28 January 2021 18:48:55
Stav Danaos on the BBC longer term forecast hinting at much colder air flooding SW at the end of next week as high pressure over the Arctic ridges southwards towards the UK.
Rob K
28 January 2021 18:52:19


 


The 12z is an excellent example of where the average can become meaningless. It splits into a mild cluster and a cold cluster. The mean becomes pretty pointless as there is barely a pertubation that can provide the solution where the mean goes!


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Yes a real two-way split showing up. Comparing 12Z to 0Z it is notable that the cold cluster has been pushed back a day or two, to the 6th rather than the 4th.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
28 January 2021 18:52:26

Incredible heat to our south and incredible cold to our north. I dont think I've ever seen such extremes before. 


 


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
28 January 2021 18:54:05


Round and round we go...


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

LOL. A 26° spread of 850s on or around 10th February. That is one humongous scatter. Some uncertainty perhaps🤔?

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
28 January 2021 18:58:45

Extreme cold looks like it's going to get very close to the UK,  but as ever we need quite a bit of luck for it actually to get here. Could take awhile. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
nsrobins
28 January 2021 18:59:51
Not quite sure what to make if the 12Z ECM.
Can you have a ‘flabby’ 1040hPa high? 😊
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
moomin75
28 January 2021 19:01:15


Incredible heat to our south and incredible cold to our north. I dont think I've ever seen such extremes before. 


 


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

That could lead to some serious ⚡⛈🌩 and 🌪🌪🌪 somewhere in Europe.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Whether Idle
28 January 2021 19:06:01

Its fair to say that the models are "struggling".  And as FI is at 48hours all charts beyond that time are mere possibilities.  ECM 12z is clearly bin fodder.


More runs are needed.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Shropshire
28 January 2021 19:08:23

Not quite sure what to make if the 12Z ECM.
Can you have a ‘flabby’ 1040hPa high? 😊

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


It would take a lot to happen to end up where the ECM does so I'm inclined to disregard it for now.

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Arbroath 1320
28 January 2021 19:22:37


Its fair to say that the models are "struggling".  And as FI is at 48hours all charts beyond that time are mere possibilities.  ECM 12z is clearly bin fodder.


More runs are needed.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Yes, the latter part of the ECM 12z run looks very much like it's given up trying to predict what's going to happen next. The 240z chart in particular just looks very strange:


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&time=240&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24&mv=0#mapref


 

GGTTH
tallyho_83
28 January 2021 19:25:56
Just flicked through the ECM ...

240z ends with milder south westerly's - is this a blip in the model or a sign of things to come? ENS have trended milder too.

Has anyone notice that the closer we get to the more reliable time frame - the more uncertainty the models show when in actual fact it should be the exact opposite?
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


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