Not here they don't!

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Well it's another easterly from the GFS but how cold , how long lasting  and how much snow is still unknown. 

GEM appears to be stuck as well

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On the positive side, the GFS 12z Op doesn't have much support at all from it's ENS at 180z in developing the Azores/Arctic ridge.

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Parallel is very good .

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Op ends on the cusp of something amazing.. The cold pool to the East at t384 is vast.

 

850s are poor though.  

I noticed the ECM De Bilt temp graph had only limited support  for decent cold so caution required at the moment. 

 

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Be nice to get a bit of dry weather regardless mild or very cold,  this winter hasnt played ball for very cold weather to me so expecting complications....

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ECM will be interesting if it sinks some sub -10 by next weekend and subsequently what happens with the pressure system in the Atlantic and if it slides or attempts to sink the high. Sliding I think is most likely

Another spell with t1ts up written all over it.

 

sorry... I’ll get me coat

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Generally less good 12Z output with the first signs of the cold which had been consistently due to arrive 4th/5th Feb (if it did) being pushed back.

GEFS a good couple of degrees less cold, we got to a mean of -7C in London on the last run but only -5C at best this time.

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https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2021012812/gem-1-240.png?12 

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To be honest the cold is never that far away and the changes are not that big. However on the ground in real world weather it could make the difference between cold rain and snow (or cool rain and cold rain in some parts).

If anyone is keeping an eye on this observation, the -10°C t850hPa count, on the 12z suite it is still a notably high 27.

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Round and round we go...

 

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The 12z is an excellent example of where the average can become meaningless. It splits into a mild cluster and a cold cluster. The mean becomes pretty pointless as there is barely a pertubation that can provide the solution where the mean goes!

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Stav Danaos on the BBC longer term forecast hinting at much colder air flooding SW at the end of next week as high pressure over the Arctic ridges southwards towards the UK.

Yes a real two-way split showing up. Comparing 12Z to 0Z it is notable that the cold cluster has been pushed back a day or two, to the 6th rather than the 4th.

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Incredible heat to our south and incredible cold to our north. I dont think I've ever seen such extremes before. 

 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

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LOL. A 26° spread of 850s on or around 10th February. That is one humongous scatter. Some uncertainty perhaps🤔?

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Extreme cold looks like it's going to get very close to the UK,  but as ever we need quite a bit of luck for it actually to get here. Could take awhile. 

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Not quite sure what to make if the 12Z ECM.
Can you have a ‘flabby’ 1040hPa high? 😊

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That could lead to some serious ⚡⛈🌩 and 🌪🌪🌪 somewhere in Europe.

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Its fair to say that the models are "struggling".  And as FI is at 48hours all charts beyond that time are mere possibilities.  ECM 12z is clearly bin fodder.

More runs are needed.

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It would take a lot to happen to end up where the ECM does so I'm inclined to disregard it for now.

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Yes, the latter part of the ECM 12z run looks very much like it's given up trying to predict what's going to happen next. The 240z chart in particular just looks very strange:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&time=240&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24&mv=0#mapref

 

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Just flicked through the ECM ...

240z ends with milder south westerly's - is this a blip in the model or a sign of things to come? ENS have trended milder too.

Has anyone notice that the closer we get to the more reliable time frame - the more uncertainty the models show when in actual fact it should be the exact opposite?

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