Model Output Discussion 26/01/2012 12:40>>>>· Page 21

Rob K
Advanced Member

29 January 2021 13:38:10

Looking at the CFS at 500hrs+ it's a case of "you ain't seen nothing yet" from mid February.

I reckon even the Aberdeen riviera might see a dusting in that set-up.

Edited by user 29 January 2021 13:40:17 | Reason: Not specified

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

ballamar
Advanced Member

29 January 2021 13:46:06

#502

Looking at the CFS at 500hrs+ it's a case of "you ain't seen nothing yet" from mid February.

I reckon even the Aberdeen riviera might see a dusting in that set-up.

Originally Posted by: Rob K

Scary thing is it’s possible !!

Jiries
Advanced Member

29 January 2021 13:49:14

#503

Jiries your posts never fail to raise a laugh. Hopefully the quality control will be better this time round!

Originally Posted by: Rob K

I have to as where UK placed on the latitude zone should be seeing subzero temps from the east and not 1-4C day or night that you expect in southern latitude cols spells. Good timing to get the easterly in early Feb as now seeing outside the sun now shining more on the north facing garden by 1/4 compare to last month near gone and by end of Feb become half so that would kill any lying snow faster. At least no longer ta 10 plus day range.

tallyho_83
Advanced Member

29 January 2021 13:49:39

#504

I should know better shouldn't I , it's the consistency of the ECM ensembles that caught my eye. I agree with you on the one more cold spell then mild as long as the cold spell lasts 6 weeks.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman

Yes agreed - most of colder spells which have brought snow have come in from the west and any snow has been transient nature. We need a true north easterly or easterly and snow only.

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com

tallyho_83
Advanced Member

29 January 2021 14:04:15

#505

This is complicated so no easy answer. Are the current projections (not happened yet) SSW related? Yes IMO, because the disruption to the PV had already happened and what we see now is changed in wave propagation and amplification in the N Pacific ‘utilising’ the displaced PV to encourage much higher blocking. You can get it without an SSW of course, but I think it’s helped.

Will it be a three day wonder or something more prolonged and even historic - time will tell, but there’s a chance of the latter.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins

Yes so finally the models (albeit with some flip flopping) have picked up on this SSW we had back on 5th January?

Also we had two reversals and we are in the process of having another warming @ 10Hpa:

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com

nsrobins
Advanced Member

29 January 2021 14:35:32

#506

Big update on the UKM site for the extended period. ‘Easterly’ and ‘snow’ in the same sentence is a good sign.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Brian Gaze
Administration

29 January 2021 14:36:49

#507

Big update on the UKM site for the extended period. ‘Easterly’ and ‘snow’ in the same sentence is a good sign.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins

Saves me looking at the 12z updates today.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

stophe
Advanced Member

29 January 2021 14:37:40

#508

Big update on the UKM site for the extended period. ‘Easterly’ and ‘snow’ in the same sentence is a good sign.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins

Get ready for the models to flip

hobensotwo
Advanced Member

29 January 2021 14:41:14

#509

Get ready for the models to flip

Originally Posted by: stophe

If it maintaines the theme, and doesn't correct any further north I'll be happy.

Good luck to all for the 12z's!

Rob K
Advanced Member

29 January 2021 15:00:18

#510

Saves me looking at the 12z updates today.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze

Yep, zonality on the way, nailed on

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

ballamar
Advanced Member

29 January 2021 15:44:04

#511

Yep, zonality on the way, nailed on

Originally Posted by: Rob K

Moomin you have changed ID’s

UncleAlbert
Advanced Member

29 January 2021 15:53:56

#512

6Z GFS returned to the theme of better heights build towards Greenland ( 9 days + range) that we saw on at least one of the earlier runs yesterday. Feels much safer in that respect than the 00Z. Hopefully will build consistency in that direction on 12Z

moomin75
Advanced Member

29 January 2021 16:10:39

#513

Moomin you have changed ID’s

Originally Posted by: ballamar

My alter ego perhaps? 🤣🤣

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

nsrobins
Advanced Member

29 January 2021 16:27:47

#514

Variation in a theme so far on the extended GFS / note the onset of an Easterly is still 144+ which is an age in this business.
The milder SE flow is getting perilously close the SE but you increase ppn so it’s a double edged sword.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Heavy Weather 2013
Advanced Member

29 January 2021 16:33:57

#515

If I’m going to be fussy, This run seems to delay the cold in the south, and it’s a risky business as 850s are looking dangerous

Still a variation of a theme. IMHO the 0z and to a lesser extent the 06z were begged for the S/SE

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

fairweather
Advanced Member

29 January 2021 16:41:11

#516

12z - oh dear. OK ish but Atlantic Low closer in and bringing SW'ly influence dangerously close at T240. No clear easterly at that point either, just flabby cold. Oh no, Sw'ly by T254. Just one run but shows it can go wrong in so many ways.

S.Essex, 42m ASL

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

29 January 2021 16:43:46

#517

12z - oh dear. OK ish but Atlantic Low closer in and bringing SW'ly influence dangerously close at T240. No clear easterly at that point either, just flabby cold. Oh no, Sw'ly by T254. Just one run but shows it can go wrong in so many ways.

Originally Posted by: fairweather

You can always rely on the Met Office

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

fairweather
Advanced Member

29 January 2021 16:45:36

#518

You can always rely on the Met Office

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman

!!!

S.Essex, 42m ASL

idj20
Advanced Member

29 January 2021 16:45:37

#519

Until we get to the "good stuff", I noticed the models have been consistent with a cheeky sharp "Channel runner" low delivering gale force westerly winds along the south coast by the middle of next week. The Atlantic isn't going down without a fight.

Folkestone Harbour.

doctormog
Advanced Member

29 January 2021 16:45:39

#520

12z - oh dear. OK ish but Atlantic Low closer in and bringing SW'ly influence dangerously close at T240. No clear easterly at that point either, just flabby cold. Oh no, Sw'ly by T254. Just one run but shows it can go wrong in so many ways.

Originally Posted by: fairweather

As a wise old man once said to me “it is the just the op”.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

warrenb
Advanced Member

29 January 2021 16:46:13

#521

12z - oh dear. OK ish but Atlantic Low closer in and bringing SW'ly influence dangerously close at T240. No clear easterly at that point either, just flabby cold. Oh no, Sw'ly by T254. Just one run but shows it can go wrong in so many ways.

Originally Posted by: fairweather

10 days away, not bothered, look up to 144 and that is it, oh and the met office produced a cold outlook today. Always the death nell of any cold spell.

Tonbridge 45m

ballamar
Advanced Member

29 January 2021 16:46:25

#522

Shows the struggles on this, vastly different. The northern push of cold is not as strong and allows what initially looks like a sliding low to spin milder air over the country (maybe not far north) great model watching. Think they have underplayed the cold push on this run, but we will see in subsequent runs. Enjoy!