Yes it's a decent cold run as well certainly better than the ECM. Looks like it's going very cold late on as well.

Excellent Para as well . Only a week away what could go wrong

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=0&runpara=1

Yes, the t850hPa mean here on the 6th is the lowest it has been so far at -9.7°C on this run. Chilly.

Yes - no sign of the Atlantic in 18z Op run - what a relief. Even if we don't get snow I am more than happy with cold and frost. We have had days of rain and more rain is forecast for tomorrow, Sunday and Monday - we need to dry out but of course fingers crossed for some snowfall.

Expect a big north/eastward correction.

Hmm, generally ok and cold I'm sure. Has drifted a bit East (doesn't it always) and less LP nearby so snow amounts not looking as dramatic as some earlier runs. Hard to see it not being the best cold spell of the winter but I suppose that's not saying much.

18z Control run is even colder.

Let's see if tomorrow mornings 00zECM will modify?

18z ENS diagram show a nice colder cluster of ENS around/between 5th and 10th February - No point looking beyond that.

The mean AVG on 7th has trended colder at -7.3c compared to -6.5c mean AVG on the 12z ENS.

Yes and the south would be colder than the north with uppers of -12 to -14c if that came off:

If you look closely you will see -14 to -16c uppers in Moomin & RobK's back yard. 

Today's instalment of ensemble watch - the highest number of sub -10s so far for London.

morning what’s your gut feeling on the potential cold spell? Personally I think we are going to hit the jackpot even if only for a couple of days

While ECM pfaffs around its obvious that this is far from being resolved.  The arrival date Im focussing on is 7th Feb.  That is still way into FI so come Monday we're still a week off! I suspect we may need to wait til Wednesday before getting some certainty on 6th/7th February.

So, a roller-coaster in store for those that like the ride, with every chance of a complete de-railment if past failures are of any use.

Another week and I may (or may not) call time on winter.

The now standard pattern of southerly tracking lows looks to continue for another week before we finally get a big HP over the country that shunts east with time.

The roaring south-easterly at the far reaches of GFS will need watching but the blocked pattern that is establishing is not unusual for February

Nice one and this time next week we be in freeze finally.