Another alternative in FI on the 18z GFS Op. Certainly much better for the far south on this run!
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2021012918/gfs-0-288.png?18 

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Yes it's a decent cold run as well certainly better than the ECM. Looks like it's going very cold late on as well.

 

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GFS 18z builds an Easterly then sinks the high over the UK at around 240hrs before inflating it again and sending it northward.

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That would also be a nice cold high ignoring the 850’s - static air before the next cold blast. Good run

Excellent Para as well . Only a week away what could go wrong

 

 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=0&runpara=1

 

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Even later on in GFS after the easterly looks like it could reload from the north. Most places should see some wintry weather from this run

Obviously the parallel has got this one nailed 😊

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18z ENS look decent again as does the para up to 180. Not interested beyond that point as anything could happen. ECM and GEM a concern today. Particularly interesting 00zs coming up.

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Yes, the t850hPa mean here on the 6th is the lowest it has been so far at -9.7°C on this run. Chilly.

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Yes - no sign of the Atlantic in 18z Op run - what a relief. Even if we don't get snow I am more than happy with cold and frost. We have had days of rain and more rain is forecast for tomorrow, Sunday and Monday - we need to dry out but of course fingers crossed for some snowfall.

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Yes there is agreement across the models for a good cold spell for every where North of 53° latitude in the western hemisphere, except the South of the UK which will be protected from cold by the AH as usual.

Really Looking forward to the nice big high pressure now confidently being shown for weeks 1-2 Feb, then a lovely warm up, maybe break the 19c record?

I wonder how the 18Z GFS op will sit amongst it's ENS members.

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Expect a big north/eastward correction.

Hmm, generally ok and cold I'm sure. Has drifted a bit East (doesn't it always) and less LP nearby so snow amounts not looking as dramatic as some earlier runs. Hard to see it not being the best cold spell of the winter but I suppose that's not saying much.

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Bitterly cold FI in the far south on the 18z GFS Control!!!
http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2021012918/gens-0-0-360.png 

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18z Control run is even colder.

Let's see if tomorrow mornings 00zECM will modify?

18z ENS diagram show a nice colder cluster of ENS around/between 5th and 10th February - No point looking beyond that.

The mean AVG on 7th has trended colder at -7.3c compared to -6.5c mean AVG on the 12z ENS.

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Yes and the south would be colder than the north with uppers of -12 to -14c if that came off:

If you look closely you will see -14 to -16c uppers in Moomin & RobK's back yard. 

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GFS op blows the Canadian PV into a monster and it’s game over.
GFSP however is fine.
GEM is a picture book arrowhead easterly and totally reverses it’s abboration of yesterday.
Lots to resolve.

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Good GEM this morning.

GFS gives us the sustained period of dry whether I've been expecting.

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Today's instalment of ensemble watch - the highest number of sub -10s so far for London.

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morning what’s your gut feeling on the potential cold spell? Personally I think we are going to hit the jackpot even if only for a couple of days

While ECM pfaffs around its obvious that this is far from being resolved.  The arrival date Im focussing on is 7th Feb.  That is still way into FI so come Monday we're still a week off! I suspect we may need to wait til Wednesday before getting some certainty on 6th/7th February.

So, a roller-coaster in store for those that like the ride, with every chance of a complete de-railment if past failures are of any use.

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Another week and I may (or may not) call time on winter.

The now standard pattern of southerly tracking lows looks to continue for another week before we finally get a big HP over the country that shunts east with time.

The roaring south-easterly at the far reaches of GFS will need watching but the blocked pattern that is establishing is not unusual for February

Nice one and this time next week we be in freeze finally.